Saturday, October 4, 2008

What's Going on in Minnesota?

For really close political watchers, polls in this year's Senate race in Minnesota have been all over the place. Throughout the cycle, incumbent Senator Norm Coleman has enjoyed leads of varying sizes, with Democratic challenger Al Franken popping out to leads here and there. This week is a perfect example. Rasmussen put Coleman up one point, a DSCC poll had Franken up two, a Quinnipiac poll found Coleman ahead by seven, a Minneapolis Star-Tribune poll put Franken up nine, and a Survey USA result found the incumbent holding a ten point edge.

So what gives? I think there a lot of reasons for these results falling all over the map. First, I think that a lot of voters simply do not know what they're going to do, which explains the good number of undecideds in many of these polls. Minnesota is a Democratic state, but Al Franken is not the most loveable figure for non-hardcore Democrats. He has said, written, and done a lot of crazy, and quite frankly, outrageous things in his pre-political career, and this unsettles a lot of people. Conversely, because Minnesota still leans blue, a lot of people are questioning whether they want to send a Republican Senator back to Washington, particularly one with strong ties to the national party and even President Bush. All of thus uncertainty on the minds of many voters has contributed to the poll results.

Second, the presence of well-known independent Dean Barkley on the November ballot has certainly impacted some polls more than others. Whereas some polls have found Barkley with no pulse, others are giving him as high as 18 percent at the present time. I don't think a lot of pollsters have had a great handle on the Barkley impact, making the results of the races ever-more unpredictable.

Third, I think some of the polls of this race, specifically Survey USA are simply not accurate. For nearly the entire cycle, SUSA has given Coleman wider leads than just about any other pollster. That's all well and good, and it may have been right a few months ago, but I do not believe that their polls of the state are terribly good. For example, this week's poll showing Franken down 10 points is simply not right, in my humble opinion. Sure, SUSA also found the presidential contest essentially tied in the state, so that might explain a lot. But that finding is also likely wrong. I bet that right now Franken has a narrow lead after being down the entire race.

I do not dispute that McCain has been able to stay in it in Minny -- mostly by heavily out-spending Obama there -- but there is a difference between surviving and having a chance to win. I would guess that right now Obama has a nice lead in the state (and other polls have bolstered this view), and will win Minnesota comfortably in the end. Should this happen, it will be an enormous benefit to Franken. In fact, I am willing to predict that if Obama can score a double-digit win in Minnesota, it would be very hard for Coleman to survive. After a very negative and nasty campaign, Coleman's favorables have dropped considerably. If Obama can score a massive statewide win, he would carry Franken over the finish line. This may be no great compliment to Franken's likeability or political skill, but sometimes political success has more to do with luck and timing than skill and strategic brilliance.

Things can change very fast in politics, but if Obama continues to hold his lead, and can score a five-point win on November 4, you will see a lot of Democratic candidates for House and Senate win. Franken will be Exhibit A for this phenomenon.

4 comments:

mike said...

The polls showing Dean Barkley in single digits did not ask for a Barkley response, only Franken and Coleman, and yet he still registered. Minnesota's story is that we don't kick third party candidates to the curb and in the end we vote for the best candidate.

In a race where Al Franken is offered up as the alternitive to the establishment the Independent candidate will continue to surge especially considering he already has US Senate experiance, as opposed to Al Franken who has not as much as served as mayor.

Mark said...

Hey Mike. What's your prediction for the race? What do you think Barkley finishes at, particularly considering how ridiculously nasty this campaign has been and will likely be over the nexy month?

mike said...

Barkley could just as easily finish at 10-15 as he could at 35-40. One things for certain he will not finish in the mid 20's.

He will trend upward until he is attacked. He is still sitting at 65% name recognition so the room for growth is huge, and every new favorable poll gives more people the encouragment to jump on board. I think they will come in with major attacks on him in the last week to little to late. I also see Frankens tax issues coming into play in a major way.

I hate to predict Barkley will win but I will predict he will at some point at least poll in 2nd.

I would consider this week as Barkleys official campaign kickoff as he had no money no ads, and moderate mesurable support. 18 and 19% changes everything.

Anonymous said...

This senate race is second only to the presidential in terms of what I'll be watching for on e-day. Anyone know if ad man Bill Hillsman (of Wellstone and Ventura fame) is doing Barkley's race? I think he served as his communications director during Barkley's brief stint.

And speaking of MN polling, the same Star Tribune poll that has Franken up by nine has Obama up by 18. Sounds too good to be true, but we'll see when other numbers start rolling in.