Breaking Down the New NY Times/CBS Poll

The New York Times and CBS are out with their weekly national presidential poll this evening, and it is sporting a solid 11-point lead for Obama, up one point from last week. However, looking more closely at the numbers shows a very slight surge for John McCain personally, as will be seen.

Overall numbers
Barack Obama: 51 (50)
John McCain: 40 (40)

With leaners
Barack Obama: 52 (51)
John McCain: 41 (41)

With Barr and Nader included
Barack Obama: 52 (51)
John McCain: 39 (38)

An 11-point edge with a week to go is not a good place for McCain to be, 13 points if you use the poll with the minor candidates as well. Several of the tracking polls have been showing a tightening contest in recent days, but this poll finds a larger cushion for the Democrats. The favorables show an interesting picture.

Favorables
Barack Obama: 51 favorable/34 unfavorable (52/31 last week)
John McCain: 41/43 (39/46)
Joe Biden: 43/25 (43/20)
Sarah Palin: 36/41 (31/40)

Obama went from a +21 last week to +17 today, courtesy not of losing supporters, but his negative number jumping. Ditto Biden who went from +23 to +18.

On the other side, both McCain and Palin saw modest bumps in their favorables. It looks like the sides are hardening, and some undecideds or straggling conservatives are ending up on the GOP side. Nevertheless, McCain is at -2 overall, and Palin at -5 -- pretty terrible for major party candidates.

Of Obama supporters, 92 percent have made their mind up, with 89 percent of McCain supporters locked in. Among Obama supporters, 67 percent feel enthusiastic about their choice, while 26 percent have reservations. The split for McCain is 45/40. This seems to indicate what we have already known for a while: Obama supporters are much more enthusiastic about their choice. This has been borne out with the early voting patterns we have been seeing. The poll shows this as well

Early voters
Barack Obama: 55
John McCain: 35

A 20-point gap. Not good for McCain.

Generic congressional poll
Democrat: 48 (36)
Republican: 36 (36)

We are a long way from about six weeks ago when this poll had the split at 51-31. Still, a 12-point gap with a week to go -- and oen that is holding -- portends for those big GOP House losses we have been bracing for. The tidal wave is still coming, and it has not yet crested.