Analyzing House Independent Expenditures, Part I

In the last few days, Roll Call and our friends at the incomparable Swing State Project have posted lists charting all independent expenditures dropped in House races this cycles. These expenditures refer mainly to spending by the House campaign arms of the Democrats and the GOP, namely the DCCC and the NRCC, as well some smaller, more concentrated spending on races by independent groups like SEIU (labor and Democratic-leaning) and the Club for Growth (pro-business and Republican-leaning).

I would like to use this post to go through all of the spending so far this cycle in order to highlight certain races, as well as to analyze what high, low or nonexistent spending in a race might mean. We are going to start with those races where spending by the DCCC has been highest in aggregate, and work out way down. In those very few races where the cash-poor NRCC has weighed in, we will obviously note it. Finally, I will add my little reading of each race at the end of each synopsis.

Because there are around 45 races to cover here, we will split this into two (or maybe even three) separate posts.

AZ-01 (R+2). DCCC total spending: $1.33 M, including $602 K in the last week. This is a district that the GOP has written off, and the Democrats appear very confident of taking. It currently belongs to GOP Rep. Rick Renzi, who has been indicted on 35 federal corruption counts. It has not helped the Republicans that the Democrats coalesced early around their nominee, while the Republicans ended up nominating a weak, overly-conservative opponent. Do not expect any Republican spending here in the last few weeks. This is likely to flip and the Democrats are spending for keeps. Outlook: Despite a lack of any polling, this is a very likely Democratic takeover.

OH-16 (R+4). DCCC total spending: $1.27 M, including $471 K in the last week. This is pure offense, with Democrats looking to pick up the seat held by Republican Ralph Regula for over the last 30 years. The last two polls have given the Democratic nominee, state Sen. John Boccieri eight (49-41) and ten (48-38) point leads, respectively. While the GOP recruited a good nominee themselves, it appears unlikely this will be a contest they invest in when they finally start dropping dough. This district is Republican, but the Democrats appear to have the momentum, and look very happy to spend freely to seal the deal. Outlook: Leaning more and more towards a Democratic takeover.

NC-08 (R+3). DCCC total spending: $1.24 M, including $630 K in the last week. Democrats missed knocking off incumbent GOP Rep. Robin Hayes by just a few hundred votes in 2006, and his opponent, Larry Kissell, is seeking a rematch. However, Kissell stumbled early and has had problems fundraising against the deep-pocketed Hayes. What has seemingly kept this seat alive in the last month is Obama's surge in North Carolina and in this semi-swing district. The only public polling came last week from SUSA and showed the challenger actually ahead 49-41. The Democratic spending seems to suggest the DCCC smells a good opportunity as well. Outlook: Toss-up.

OH-15 (R+1). DCCC total spending: $1.22 M, including $428 K in the last week. See OH-15. This is a district where Democrats barely lost in 2006. The 2006 Democratic nominee is back, and the incumbent, Deborah Pryce, is retiring. This race has appeared a bit closer in polling than the Sixteenth, though the Democrats are clearly in the driver's seat. To that end, the NRCC has actually spent a little here, dropping $58 K in the last week, and $84 K for the whole cycle. Still, they will need to really increase spending in order to make this Columbus-based seat more competitive. It does not help that Emily's List has dropped $52 K here, most of it in the last week. Outlook: Leaning towards a Democratic takeover, but a bit closer than OH-16.

NH-01 (Cook PVI R+0). DCCC total spending: $1.21 M, including $519 K in the last week. Clearly, this is a race Democrats are concerned about. First-termer Carol Shea-Porter is easily one of the top five most-threatened Democratic incumbents. Shea-Porter scored one of 2006's biggest upsets when she ousted popular Republican Jeb Bradley 51-to-49. Bradley immediately sought a rematch, and while he had trouble winning the primary against a more conservative nominee, he remains popular in the district, which leans very slightly to the right. A lot of polling has favored Bradley a bit, but the most recent poll, from Survey USA had Shea-Porter opening up a 50-41 lead. With the NRCC not dropping a nickel here, Bradley will have a hard time, especially if Obama racks up a big win here, which looks more and more likely. Outlook: Leaning Democratic retention, but still of the GOP's best shots for a pick-up.

AZ-05 (R+4). DCCC total spending: $1.2 M, including $ 499 K in the last week. The Dems won this seat in 2006 in a bit of an upset against a strongly conservative (as well as offensive) congressman. While this race has always been on the Democrats' 2008 radar, it was not expected to be one of their most threatened seats, and while it still is not, Democrats are clearly concerned. There has been no public polling here, but I would guess given the Dems' high spending it is a bit too close for their comfort, and they are working to shore up freshman Rep. Harry Mitchell. My guess is that Mitchell has a mid-to-high single digits lead, or at least did recently. If Republicans spend here, it would be a sign that the contest is close, but the NRCC has yet to drop any money here. Outlook: Likely Democratic hold, but any GOP spending would indicate greater closeness than now currently appears.

MN-03 (R+1). DCCC total spending: $1.17 M, including $547 K in the last week. This is a true swing district, but it would never have been in play had the popular GOP incumbent, Jim Ramstad, not retired. His retirement opened the door here for Democrats, though early results actually favored the GOP. While the DCCC's favored candidate lost in the primary, the NRCC got a strong recruit, state Rep. Erik Paulsen, and he has fundraised very well. However, the Dem's ultimate nominee, veteran and former Republican Ashwin Madia has also raised a lot of money. What hurts the GOP here is that Obama should rack up a big statewide win in Minnesota, as well as in this district. SUSA is the only pollster here so far: their late August result had the GOP up 44-41, but their latest poll from last week had the Democrat regaining the edge by just 46-43. This seems like a district the NRCC woudl dedicate some of its meager resources to, especially since it took such an active role in recruiting Paulsen, but it has not so far. Outlook: Toss-up, but beginning to lean towards a Democratic pick-up.

NM-01 (D+2). DCCC total spending: $1.12 M, including $443 K in the last week. The First District in New Mexico has eluded Democrats for years. Retiring Rep. Heather Wilson escaped with several close wins over the years, including by less than one percent over a heralded Democratic recruit in 2006. This year, with Wilson retiring, the GOP still looked primed to hold the seat when it recruited popular country sheriff Darren White to run under the red banner. However, the Democratic nominee, Martin Heinrich has been impressive, and has avoided making any big mistakes. The NRCC has not spent here, and White got a big blow when the NRCC announced it was pulling out$500,000 of planned future expenditures from the race; though the state GOP just spent $240 K on White's behalf. Obama is expected to win big here in this Albuquerque-based district, and while the district's voters are famous for splitting their votes, White is in a tough spot. Additionally, Rep. Tom Udall, who is running for Senate just below Obama on the ballot is also going to win very big in the district. SUSA's late August poll had Heinrich up six points, 51-46, and the most recent poll gave the Democrat a tight 43-41 advantage. Heavy Dem spending should only build on that distance. Outlook: Toss-up, but this is looking increasingly like a hard district for Republicans to hold.

AZ-03 (R+6). DCCC total spending: $1.067 M, including $679 K in the last week. The Democrats' spending here is interesting. This a conservative district, with a popular incumbent, John Shadegg. Shadegg almost retired this year, but was coaxed into running again by a GOP afraid of protecting yet another seat. News articles seem to indicate that he has run a lackluster campaign, while his opponent, attorney Bob Lord, has been campaigning hard. Last week, Lord's campaign released a poll showing him leading Shadegg by a point 45-44, but a R2K poll released days later showed the Republican up 48-39. The DCCC's big spending here seems to show that that it either buys Lord's polling result, or even if it does not, that the DCCC thinks this district might be swing-able with a little money. It will be interesting to see if Democrats keep spending here. The NRCC will not spend anything here. Personally, I think there are many better opportunities out there. Outlook: Leaning very heavily towards a Republican retention until proven otherwise.

AK-AL (R+14). DCCC total spending: $1.05 M, including $880 K in the last week. Covering all of Alaska, this at-large district is one that probably should not be available to Democrats. It has been represented by Congressman Don Young since 1973. Young, who has only faced about three tough challenges in 35 years in office, is facing likely his stiffest race ever against Ethan Berkowitz, the former Democratic minority leader in the State House and someone the DCCC recruited hard to get in the race. Young has stumbled in the last year as he is embroiled in numerous scandals including two Federal investigations involving the VECO corruption that has embroiled the Alaska Republican Party, and the long-running Abramoff investigation. He is also under scrutiny for allegedly illegally inserting an earmark into a passed bill in order to benefit a political contributor. Young barely survived a primary challenge from Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell, who was pushed into the race by Sarah Palin and financially backed by the Club for Growth (which despises Young for his pork barrel work), winning by 303 votes out of about 106,000 cast (or 0.28 percent) after a statewide recount. Polling over the last year has shown Young losing to Berkowitz, sometimes by wide marins, but the most recent numbers have shown that Young has crawled back to within the high single digits of his opponent (51-42 from the latest poll). That the DCCC has dropped nearly all of its money in the race last week shows that it was biding its time a bit until after the GOP primary was finally resolved. It would be shocking if the NRCC spent any money here, even though the Alaska media market is so cheap. Young is probably down too much, and besides, a lot of Republicans would like to get rid of the old pork barreler, feeling they will have easier time ousting Berkowitz in 2010. Outlook: Toss-up. This is a hard race to gauge. In most other states, this would be clearly leaning Democratic, but Young is an institution of sorts in Alaska, and until he is actually voted out, the feisty Young will always have a political pulse. Indeed, most people, including this author, thought Parnell was going to crush him in the primary. Plus, a big wild card is Senator Ted Stevens' trial. If Stevens' is acquitted on all counts, there might be a spill-over beneficial impact to Young. It is hard to say.

NJ-07 (R+1). DCCC total spending: $1.01 M, including $293 K in the last week. In a surprise, Democrats only lost this seat by one percent in 2006, even though it was mostly ignored by the national party. The incumbent Mike Ferguson is retiring, and the Democrats are coming back with the same nominee, state Rep. Linda Stender. However, the GOP was able recruit state Sen. Leonard Lance, a moderate politician very popular in the western party of this unusual district. We have seen mostly internal polling in this race, though a public poll from last week showed Lance leading 41-39. It is important to note that while this is liberal Jersey, this district is strange. It stretches across the state, with its eastern parts being more urban and Democratic, while its western segment in Somerset and Hunterdon counties leans right. Lance is the exact type of candidate who can hold the seat for the GOP, but he faces a tough time since this district falls in the New York City media market, and would thus be extremely hard for the cash-strapped NRCC to spend in. Up to this point, the NRCC has spent $19,400 here, all in the last few days. Conversely, while I am sure the DCCC would prefer to let Stender win on her own, it is clear it realizes it will need to spend freely to push her over the finish line. Honestly, if I was the GOP, I would spend here because Lance would probably win with some backing, but I am guessing the GOP fears Obama's coattails here, and is therefore hesitant to invest a lot. Freedom's Watch, a conservative independent group, has broadcast anti-Stender ads here, though. Even if the NRCC does not spend much here, Lance has a great shot. Outlook: Complete and total toss-up.

OH-01 (R+1). DCCC total spending: $941 K, including $547 K in the last week. This district is basically Cincinnati and some surrounding suburbs. It is a big toss-up district generally, but conservative Rep. Steve Chabot has been able to just barely survive here, facing several close shaves over the years, including a 52-48 win in 2006 over a strong challenger. This year, the DCCC recruited Steve Dreihaus, who is also high-touted. An SUSA poll from last month showed Chabot barely ahead 46-44, but an R2K poll from last week flipped that result to show the Democrat up 46-44. Both polls showed Obama ahead in the district, which is significant for this race and based in part on the fact that the district has a large black population. You may not believe it, but in a piece I wrote up but never posted, I suggested that the NRCC would be more likely to spend big in this district than any other in the nation. My rationale was that this is a very marginal district, yes, but Chabot is a very strong conservative -- much more conservative than the district. That he has been able to survive so long is impressive, and certainly a testament to his political abilities. That being said, if Chabot loses, it would be hard to envision the GOP electing an equally conservative congressman to this district again. Not surprisngly (to me, at least), OH-01 is so far the district where the NRCC has spent the most: $396 K, all in the last week. Did Tom Cole read my mind? No, it is simply logical that this would be a place the NRCC would spend in a close race. Chabot is a survivor, but he clearly needs help. It complicates his mission with SEIU dumping nearly $100 K here this cycle. Outlook: Toss-up. Never count Chabot out, but if Obama wins here by 10+ points, he is probably done.

MD-01 (R+10). DCCC total spending: $875 K, including $484K last week. This is a district that should not be in play. The only reason it is winnable for Democrats is because a conservative state senator backed by the Club for Growth ousted popular longtime Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in the GOP primary, opening the door for the Democratic nominee, Frank Kratovil, a conservative law-and-order prosecutor. The only polling here has been of the internal variety, and Kratovil's latest poll from yesterday showed him up 43-41. Kratovil has been buoyed by a public endorsement from Gilchrest, who is still very well-liked in the district. Had the Club for Growth not weighed in here, Gilchrest would have won easily. As it stands, the DCCC is spending heavily. I think a huge part of this, quite frankly, is because House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen, both of Maryland, would love to claim this seat out of pride. I think the polls are closer than they should be here, but I wonder if they are close enough to merit the financial attention the seat has gotten so far. It is hard to say. I certainly do not begrudge the DCCC or question its merits, I am just wonder how much of this spending is because of increased drive from Hoyer and Van Hollen. The NRCC won't spend anything here, so it is up to the Club to help out the Republican nominee, and it just spent $210 K here. Outlook: Leaning towards GOP retention, but Kratovil has a fighting chance to take a distirct Democrats should have no business winning.

PA-11 (D+5). DCCC total spending: $856 K, including $365 K in the last week. This is probably the Democrats' most-threatened seat in all of Congress, perhaps even more so than the long-endangered TX-22. The longtime incumbent Paul Kanjorski is facing a spirited challenge from Hazelton mayor Lou Barletta who is popular and well known in the district for his strong anti-immigrant positions and policies. Barletta has been able to gain an advantage by making this race about immigration more than economic issues. Kanjorski did not help himself when he voted for the bailout bill and strongly supported it (he was hamstrung to support it as a senior Democratic member on the Financial Services Committee). Both sides have released dueling internal polls showing their sides with leads, but the only two public polls have shown the challenger with a lead: one from last month had Kanjo down nine, and a poll from today shows him down 43-39. My personal sense is that this race has probably tightened, but Kanjorski is still down. The Clintons campaigned for him this weekend, and the DCCC will undoubtedly spend heavily here until election day to save Kanjorski. If there ever was a district for the NRCC to play offense, it would be here. Kanjo also got a boast from NARPAC, the realtors' PAC, which spent over one million dollars on his behalf in the district. Kanorski also just got the endorsement of the NRA, which should help him in this district. Outlook: Toss-up, but extremely threatened to flip.

NV-03 (D+1). DCCC total spending: $855 K, including $486 K in the last week. DCCC spending has been high here, and will likely continue given how the district has been changing. Rep. Jon Porter won by one percent in 2006, and since then, Democratic registration has exploded in this district which makes up the suburbs around Las Vegas. The Democrats have a well known nominee in Dina Titus, the former Democratic state senate leader and the 2006 nominee for governor (she lost that race 48-44). The NRCC has dropped a paltry $15 K here this cycle, and it recently announced it was pulling back on its intended advertising here. Porter looks like he is on his own in the face of a DCCC onslaught. Most of the polling has been favorable for Titus and has Porter well below 50 percent; indeed, Porter's own released poll had him in the low 40s and up only two points. Outlook: Leaning strongly towards a Democratic takeover.

NY-26 (R+4). DCCC total spending: $845 K, including $556 K in the last week. The DCCC had high hopes here after Tom Reynolds opened the seat up with his retirement. However, the DCCC's preferred nominee, Jon Powers, lost in the primary to a underfunded Democrat, Alice Kryzan. The GOP challenger, Chris Lee, is wealthy, and can spend more of his own money here. Plus, Lee will appear on three separate ballot lines, which will only boast his chances, while Kryzan will only be on the Democratic line. (The Working Families Party canceled their early endorsement of Powers and gave it to Kryzan, but it appears that the switch came too late to be reflected on the actual ballot.) This is a swing district, and with Obama likely to win New York big (and perhaps in the district by a smaller margin), Kryzan has a good chance, especially with heavy DCCC spending here. The only public poll from SUSA showed Lee up 48-37 at the end of September. Outlook: Leaning Republican hold.

MI-09 (R+0). DCCC total spending: $826 K, including $459 K in the last week. Longtime GOP incumbent Rep. Joe Knowlenberg posted a weak victory in 2006 over a second-tier challenger, so this cycle he was a top target for Democrats. Their eventual nominee posted poor numbers out of the gate, but the race has definitely tightened in the last month as Obama has pulled away in Michigan. Consequently, we have seen a clear uptick in spending by the DCCC here. Plus, SEIU has slated Knowlenberg as a top target, and has already dropped $78 K here. With the NRCC staying away, the only money coming in to help Knowlenberg has been from NARPAC, which has spent $534 K to save him. John McCain's decision to pull out of Michigan hurt few people as much as Joe Knowlenberg. Outlook: Toss-up, but beginning to move towards a Democratic takeover.

IL-11 (R+1). DCCC total spending: $812 K, including $156 K in the last week. When Rep. Jerry Weller announced his retirement and the GOP had a hard time recruiting a candidate, it appeared that prized Democratic recruit, state Sen. Debbie Halvorson would cruise to victory. Not so. The GOP's ultimate nominee, wealthy businessman Martin Ozinga has raised a good amount of coin, and has kept the contest close by successfully tying Halvorson to unpopular Gov. Rod Blagojevich. The DCCC has made some healthy spending here, but it is hard to see Ozinga winning this swing district with Obama at the top of ticket. Emily's List has also spent over $160 K here, including nearly $50 K last week. The NRCC would thus be nuts to spend anything here. Outlook: Leaning Democratic pick-up, but it is not a sure thing yet.

CT-04 (D+5). DCCC total spending: $795 K, $325 K in tjhe last week. This is the second-most Democratic district currently held by a Republican challenger. Like Heather Wilson in NM-01, Rep. Chris Shays has proved decidedly resilient, much to the chagrin of Democrats. In 2006, he beat the latest in a string of solid Democratic challengers, and this year he has to do it again as he faces a wealthy businessman who has fundraised well and has his own deep pockets. The DCCC has spent heavy here to finally get rid of Shays, but the incumbent got an infusion of aid of over half a million dollars from NARPAC; though the NRCC will likely not weigh in here. There has not been any recent public polling here. The biggest question may be whether Shays can survive what will be a big Obama win in both Connecticut and this wealthy district. Shays has always been liked and respected here, but he faces another tough test next month. My own sense is that Shays will survive, but I have been wrong before, and will be wrong again at some point. Outlook: Toss-up.

PA-03 (R+3). DCCC total spending: $771 K, including $354 K in the last week. This a race that came out of nowhere in the last few months. When she made it out of the Democratic primary, Kathy Dahlkemper did not get a huge amount of attention from political followers, including your's truly. While she has a moderate profile, it was not clear that she would be able to challenge the longtime incumbent Phil English. However, Dalhkemper, whose family is well known in the district, has put together a strong challenge, and it looks like English is on his heels. The first warning signs came when the NRCC began polling here, and sure enough, recently-released polling has had a lot of bad news for the GOP. An SUSA poll from late September had Dahlkemper ahead 49-45, and an R2K poll from last week showed her up 48-41 -- both thus showing a fairly consistent level of support for the challenger, just shy of 50 percent. The NRCC has begun to spend heavily here, already plopping down $301 K here, and $124 K last week. Outside interest groups have also spent over $150 K to save English. Like OH-01, this is a swing district where the national GOP has a big interest in saving one of its conservative members. Outlook: Toss-up, but beginning to lean towards flipping Democratic.

MI-07 (R+2). DCCC total spent so far: $767 K, including $501 K in the last week. This district has been on the Democrats' radar for some time. It was represented by moderate GOP Rep. Joe Schwarz until he was ousted in the Republican primary by conservative Tim Walberg, the current incumbent. Walberg was backed primarily by the Club for Growth, and is probably a bit more conservative than his slightly-right-of-center district. Seizing on this, Democrats were able to recruit a very strong challenger this cycle in state Sen. Mark Schauer, who has raised a lot of money. While Walberg was able to build an early lead, that is all gone, and the race is now leaning fairly strongly towards flipping to the Democrats. While we have only seen Democratic polls, they all give Schauer a wide lead, and neither Walberg nor the NRCC has released its own polling on the race. Given the very recent surge in spending by the DCCC, these numbers are probably accurate: $500,000 in a week is a lot, and about the most the DCCC has spent in the last week in any single race. Complicating matters is that AFSCEME has already spent half a million dollars against Walberg. The Club for Growth has so far spent $189 K for Walberg, and the NRCC has dropped $308 K on its own, including $262 K in the last week. Along with OH-01 and PA-03, this is the district the GOP most wants to hold. Our rationale is the same as with Steve Chabot: given the toss-up nature of the district, the GOP realizes if Walberg is beaten, they will not get as conservative a representative here again for a long time. Still, with McCain having pulled out of Michigan, Walberg is out in the open in the face of oodles of Obama/DCCC/Schauer/AFSCEME money. Outlook: Leaning now towards a Democratic takeover.

NM-02 (R+6). DCCC total spending: $731 K, including $471 K in the last week. NM-02 is a district that has surprised a lot of people. Taking up southern New Mexico, and most of the state for that matter, the Second District is New Mexico's unofficially designated Republican district, and it has not been in Democratic hands for decades. It leans strongly to the right, much more so than the swing Albuquerque-based First, and the dark blue Sante Fe-based Third districts. Republicans felt they had a sure winner in wealthy restaurant owner Ed Tinsley, but oilman Harry Teague has run very strong here. A conservative Democrat with strong roots in southern New Mexico, Teague is now in the lead according to strategists on both sides of the aisle. The only public poll here, from R2K two weeks ago, showed Teague ahead 47-43. New Mexico's top political blogger, Joe Monahan, says too that Teague now has a slight lead. Teague has been able to contend because of his conservative views, and because of a robust operation in the district's largest county, Dona Ana County. Dona Ana already leans slightly Democratic, and Obama's huge operation in the county will probably boast Teague. Furthermore, Teague is well known in Lea County, a Republican stronghold, where he served as a county commissioner. Because it is the tenth biggest county in the state, if Teague can chip away enough votes there and win big in Dora Ana, he would be tough to beat. It helps that the district has a huge Hispanic population, one which is moving fast and hard towards Obama. Finally, Tinsley's erratic behavior at a public appearance has undermined him a bit. One possible silver lining for Tinsley: the outgoing congressman, Rep. Steve Pearch will be on the ballot as the GOP Senate candidate, so he may be able to boast Tinsley slightly; though, with Pearce getting walloped in the polls, he may not have coattails even in his own district. The DCCC has spent a lot here because it sees an opportunity. I would expect that to continue, and I would be shocked to see the NRCC try to aid Tinsley. Like a lot of GOP congressional challengers this year, he is on his own. Outlook: Toss-up and slightly favoring a Democratic victory here.

PA-10 (R+8). DCCC total spending: $696 K, including $391 K last week. Located in the northeastern part of the state, PA-10 is a district that by all accounts should never be in Democratic hands. Chris Carney won it in 2006 only because the longtime GOP Rep. Don Sherwood got into trouble for trying to choke his mistress. While Carney was heavily targeted for extinction this cycle by the the NRCC, the GOP failed to recruit a top-notch challenger, and now the race appears to be getting out of hand. The last two public polls, both from late September, have Carney up 46-36, and 48-33. The NRCC has not spent anything here, and with Obama expanding his Pennsylvania lead recently, the GOP likely will not even get a boast here from McCain. Outlook: Leaning more and more towards a Democratic hold.

IN-09 (R+7). DCCC total spending: $689 K total, including $471 K in the last week. Rep. Baron Hill is facing off against his nemesis, former Rep. Mike Sodrel for the fourth straight time. Hill, the congressman for this district in the 1990s defeated Sodrel in 2002, narrowly lost to him in 2004, and then beat him by five percent to retake the seat in 2006. Sodrel, a wealthy businessman decided to go for four, and the two are engaged in another nasty contest where Sodrel and the local GOP demanded that Hill and Sodrel wear lie detectors at a public debate. This is a Republican district in southern Indiana near the Kentucky border and around the University of Indiana, and Hill has always, always faced tough races. He is popular in the area and well known as a former young basketball star, but he has never won big margins, which is understandable considering the nature of the district. Still, recent polling of this contest has given Hill a clear lead: the last three public poll, all over the last month have given Hill leads of 50-39 (SUSA), 49-37 (R2K), and 53-38 (SUSA). In that context, the high DCCC spending, evidenced by nearly half a million spent last week, is a little puzzling. To be sure, Hill is much more threatened than fellow Hoosier freshman Brad Ellsworth (IN-08, R+9) and Joe Donnelly (IN-02, R+4), and the DCCC would probably like to solidify this district once and for all to finally crush Sodrel and scare him and other wealthy challengers from going after Hill again. This makes sense, now that I think about it. Though, I would imagine that this recent burst of cash will be the DCCC's last major foray here this cycle, unless they don't buy the polling. Outlook: Likely Democratic hold.

FL-24 (R+3). DCCC total spending: $653 K, including $438 K in the last week. This is another seat that is winnable for Democrats nearly solely because of the incumbent's problems. Rep. Tom Feeney, one of the more conservative members of the House, has been named to CREW's 'most corrupt member of Congress' list four straight years, mostly because of his ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Several years ago Feeney took a free golf trip to Scotland with former GOP House Majority Leader Tom DeLay. The story got little coverage in 2006 because the Democrats had failed to recruit a strong challenger for Feeney who was able to highlight the trip. This year, that is not the case, as Feeney is facing a tough race from former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas. Kosmas has been pushing the Scotland trip and Feeney's ethics issues, so much so that Feeney actually cut a tv ad apologizing for the trip. It was certainly a gutsy move by Feeney, but it remains to be seen if it will inoculate Feeney from ethics attacks. There has been no public polling of this race, though a Kosmas poll from last month showed Feeney up a single point. All the political handicappers (Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg, and SSP) are calling this race a straight toss-up or leaning towards a Democratic pick-up. I would look for the DCCC to spend even more here, and the NRCC likely will not match that the tv market here just east of Orlando is expensive. Outlook: Toss-up, but I won't believe the wily Feeney is losing until I see some real evidence of it in the polls.