Districts the DCCC Should Hit

We have looked at where the DCCC has spent money so far. There is no question that the Democrats have cast a wide net in their mission to protect vulnerable incumbents and expand their current House majority, dropping nearly $40 million dollars in 51 different districts, many of which are very Republican. However, a close look at the national landscape shows that there are still a few more races where the DCCC has not yet spent in. I wanted to take some time to highlight a handful of these races, all of which would be offensive targets (I think that for the most part the DCCC has done more than enough to shore up vulnerable and semi-vulnerable Democratic incumbents, though you could make a good argument for a bit of funding in KY-03 and GA-08 to be on the safe side).

Let me say at the outset that this is not meant to be some sort of critique of the DCCC's spending. I think that that would be silly for a couple of reasons. First, as is patently obvious, the DCCC has been ambitious and generous with its funds up to now on an unprecedented scale. No one can claim that the party has not been spreading its resources both widely and shrewdly. Second, with the election just 19 days away now, I have little doubt that when it is all said and done, the DCCC will have spent in just about every race that was conceivably winnable this year.

The whole point of this post, therefore, is just to highlight the so-far overlooked districts, and discuss why or why not they are worth greater attention from the national party. For the most part, there are around ten more offensive targets the Dems should spend in, plus some others which I will not spend time on since they are probably unwinnable.

10 remaining offensive (and winnable) targets

CA-04 (R+11). This is another place Democrats should never be able to compete in. I freely admit that I dismissed Democratic candidate Charlie Brown's chances of winning after disgraced GOP incumbent Rep. John Doolittle announced his retirement. Brown did hold Doolittle to a 49-46 win in 2006, but with the congressman off the ballot this year, I was heavily skeptical of Brown's chances. Compounding Brown's problem was that state Sen. Tom McClintock, a figure beloved by California conservatives, won the GOP nomination for the seat even though he lives in and represents a district 400 miles from this northern California GOP stronghold. Despite all of this, Brown appears to have as good a shot as possible to win next month. An August internal poll from his campaign showed him up 43-41, and while a McClintock poll a month later showed the state senator ahead 47-39, an R2K poll from late September gave Brown a surprising 46-41 lead, showing him with much lower negatives than the carpetbagger McClintock (this is not an attack, but really a fact, in the same way Hillary Clinton was a carpetbagger in 2000), and much more well liked and supported among key independent voters. This seat may still be a tough get, but Democrats would be wise to invest here.

FL-08 (R+3). I have been following this race for a while, and this may be the contest that is most puzzling to me in terms of the DCCC's lack of spending. The incumbent, Rep. Ric Keller is extremely vulnerable. In 2006, he beat an underfunded challenger in the general election by just 53-46. This year, he broke a term-limits pledge he made when he first ran in 2000, engendering some criticism. In the GOP primary this year he barely won against an opponent who had a record for drunk driving and public intoxication and who spent basically no money. The first paragraph of a recent Politico article on Keller says it all:

It’s generally a warning sign if a member of Congress can’t win more than 55 percent of the vote in the primary. It’s even more alarming when that same congressman can’t handily defeat an opponent who was charged with public intoxication and found sleeping on a park bench outside a local high school.

Keller had to spend heavily to defeat his primary opponent, Todd Long, and even then survived by just 53-to-47. On the Democratic side, wealthy attorney Alan Grayson spent over a million dollars to handily defeat Charlie Stuart, the moderate who had run against Keller in 2006, and the candidate in the field the DCCC apparently preferred given Grayson's liberalism. Perhaps this explains why the DCCC has not spent here, I don't know; though, I doubt it because the DCCC has no problem backing who it has to back (see Alice Kryzan in NY-26). Grayson released a poll immediately after the primary showing him ahead of Keller 44-40. I believe it. Keller has lost a lot of support among conservatives for his lack of legislative achievements, for breaking his term limits pledge, for a juicy Harper's article earlier this year which detailed his alleged extra-martial affair with a former staffer (and now his second wife), and other things. Grayson is very liberal for a district which leans to the right, and he is not the most charismatic candidate. However, he has run a strong campaign, and has crafted some very original commercials which highlight his work as a false claims attorney (he helps whistleblowers and the government punish federal contractors who steal from the U.S.). Perhaps the DCCC is holding fire since Grayson has very deep pockets, but that is likely the wrong tact. This race is probably a total toss-up right now, and in fact it has been rated as such by Stu Rothenberg, Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato. It is in and around Orlando making media expensive, but that should not matter. This is a district that is begging for a big investment by the DCCC.

FL-21 (R+6). I know we wrote about this seat at length, but I just wanted to add a final word here. A couple days ago, the DCCC dropped over $500,000 here, and I would expect that that spending will only increase in what is one of the top races in the country. What should concern many Democrats is that the DCCC really has not spent freely in Florida up to this point. Yes, the DCCC has dumped a lot of cash into FL-24 to defeat Tom Feeney, but as we will discuss with FL-08 and FL-25, for some reason the DCCC has not yet gotten heavily involved in the other handful of winnable races in the Sunshine State. This is puzzling given not just the expanded map in Florida this year, but also because Barack Obama is doing so well in the state, and thus is likely to have greater coattails than recent Democratic presidential candidates like John Kerry and Al Gore.

FL-25 (R+4). Yet another Florida district, this one belonging to Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, Lincoln's younger brother. Elected in 2002 after a stint in the Florida legislature, Mario is more conservative than his brother, as well as more hard-edged. The district is very expansive, and falls mostly west of Miami and takes up a huge chuck of southwestern Florida. It is conservative, but slightly less so than FL-21. The Democratic nominee, Joe Garcia, was another big get for the Democrats, though not quite as highly-touted as the well-known Raul Martinez. Garcia is very polished, and a strong nominee; in my humble opinion, I think that he is actually a better nominee than Martinez because he is much more thoughtful and comes with far less baggage. The recent polling here has been very consistent: a late-September R2K poll put the race at 45-41 in favor of the incumbent, a Telemundo poll from the same time put it at 43-41, and a Garcia internal poll from last week found the race at 45-42, with Diaz-Balart again leading. The race is clearly tight, and Diaz-Balart is several points below 50 percent. I would strongly expect the DCCC to weigh in here big-time, as Garcia could become the young, national Cuban spokesman that Democrats have been looking for for some time (think Bob Menendez, but younger, and actually with charisma). I see Garcia as a future Senate or gubernatorial candidate if he can win this race.

ID-01 (R+19). We talked about this race a little in the previous post because the DCCC has dropped a few thousands bucks here. I will not restate the same points except to say that while this district is among the most Republican in America, the DCCC would be wise to invest money here. Rep. Bill Sali is erratic, and not even well-liked by core Republicans. If and when he loses a primary, the seat will no longer be winnable for Democrats. This would be the year for Democrats to capture the seat, and while they would have a hard time holding it in 2010, as they say: you can't win, if you don't play. Media is cheap in Idaho, and a little money would go a long way here. It is a hard pill for Democrats to swallow to dump big money in Idaho, but winning and possibly holding a seat in Idaho should enticing enough. I can't believe I am saying this, but this is a winnable seat for Democrats this year.

LA-04 (R+7). This is the seat of retiring Republican Jim McCrery. It is basically the western part of Louisiana, with Shreveport its population center. Like Don Cazayoux's Baton Rogue-based seat in LA-04, it is very Republican and socially conservative, though not nearly as red as LA-01 in the suburbs north of New Orleans. the ranking minority member on the powerful Ways and Means Committee, McCrery was a surprise retirement, though I do not think I am going out on a limb in interpreting his retirement as a means to make more money in the private sector. Nevertheless, the seat is only winnable because of McCrery's retirement, and because the Democrats were able to recruit one of their possible nominees in longtime Caddo Parrish District Attorney Paul Carmouche. Carmouche, a social conservative and law-and-order Democrat, is very well known in the district from his 20 years as DA. Both his and the GOP rare headed to run-offs which will occur on November 4. The general election will not be until December. Assuming Carmouche survives the primary, which he should, he will be a very formidable challenger, kind of like Bobby Bright in that just about any other Democrat would not stand a chance here. All of that being said, because the general election will not be until December -- thank you typically annoying Louisiana election laws -- the DCCC is absolutely right not to spend money here now. It would be absolutely pointless considering that the race is technically still in the primary stage. Come mid and late-December, watch for the DCCC to spend freely here to win one last seat, just as it did with TX-23 in 2006.

NV-02 (R+8). This district may be the last safe place for congressional Republicans in the Silver State. Physically, this is the largest single congressional district in America (not including at-large districts), and it is hugely Republican. It makes up all of Nevada outside of the southern tip of Clark County, Las Vegas (First District), and the Vegas suburb (Third District). Unlike the other two districts which lean more to the left, the rest of Nevada is totally different. Northern Nevada is much more conservative and libertarian-minded than Clark County, and its people even have some healthy resentment for the Vegas part of the state. While the district is sprawling, most of the population is located in the northwest in the capital, Carson City, and in Washoe and Douglas counties and in Reno and Sparks. There are some people out west in Elko and Ely in White Horse County, but not many. This is a rural district, and it generally votes overwhelmingly for Republicans. On the congressional side, freshman GOP Rep. Dean Heller has a staunch conservative profile which would seem befitting for the district. In 2006, he defeated the former chair of the Nevada Democratic Party, Jill Derby, but by just 50-45. This year, Derby is seeking a rematch, and while few people gave her a shot the second time around, she has been able to get some traction and make the race tighter than expected. R2K has polled the race twice: finding Heller up 47-42 in August, and expanding that lead to 48-41 a week ago. A week-old Mason-Dixon poll gave Heller a wide 51-38 lead lead, but the poll had a small size and seems generally suspect. To wit: R2K found Obama down only a couple of points in the district, one which Bush carried by 16 points in 2004. As Obama expands his lead in Nevada, this will only help Derby. I bet with a friend recently that Derby will lose. That being said, with the race close enough in rural Republican district, it too is worthy of a DCCC investment.

OH-02 (R+13). See ID-01. This is a district that is overwhelmingly Republican, but is competitive because of a weak incumbent. Jean Schmidt won the seat in a 2005 special election by 52-48, and carried it again in 2006 by just 50-49. She is not beloved in this district making up some suburbs of Cincinnati. The problem for Democrats is that their nominee, Victoria Wulsin, is not a great challenger. Wulsin did come within one percent of winning in 2006, but many -- including this author -- seriously question her chances this cycle. Still, it is hard to debate several factors that are in the Democrats' favor. First, a libertarian is running a strong third-party campaign here, and he is likely to siphon off at least five percent from Schmidt. Second, polls have not been bad. The most recent, an R2K from two weeks ago found Schmidt ahead just 46-39, several points below 50 percent. It also found Obama losing the district 53-41, which is incredible considering that Bush won here in 2004 by 64-36. This is another reach district, to be sure, but if this cycle is about reaches, OH-02 is likely a good bet for the DCCC.

TX-07 (R+16). This another huge reach, I admit it. The Seventh District of Texas is one of the most conservative districts in America, but it is one Democrats could steal. The district covers many of the wealthy suburbs west of Houston. This is where the executives that work in Houston live. It was once represented by George H.W. Bush, and also by former Ways and Means chairman Bill Archer. It has been represented by ultra-conservative Rep. John Culberson for the last few years, an unaccomplished member whose motto is "Letting Texas run Texas." Culberson has not committed a Sali or Schmidt-like error, but he is vulnerable this year because Democrats recruited an impressive candidate to challenge him in former wind energy executive Michael Skelly. Skelly, an extremely wealthy man, has been a fundraising machine -- he has consistently been one of the top Democratic fundraisers for any candidate, challenger or incumbent in the country -- and has been able to invest his own money in the contest. Skelly has centered his campaign mostly around the energy issue, building on his background and expertise in wind energy. He has also put up some good and slick commercials. This is a district that is certainly Republican, but its voters are much more educated, and therefore more likely to be convinced by Skelly's energy focus over a debate of social issues which Culberson would assuredly prefer. The only polling here, an R2K poll from last week, found Culberson ahead by 48-40. The result was similar to a September Skelly poll finding the incumbent up 44-37. This is not surprising, but it is not discouraging either. Keep in mind: Culberson won 59-39 in 2006, and 64-33 in 2004, and Bush won 64 percent here in 2004, and 69 percent in 2000. The district is slowly but surely moving slightly leftward, and Skelly is the type of candidate to capitalize on that movement with his business background. I have been following Skelly for a while, and I really like him. If can sound pie-in-the-sky-idealistic for once: As a smart businessman with tremendous background in the energy industry, he is exactly the type of person Texas and the country needs in Congress.

WY-AL (R+19). Regular readers know we love talking about Wyoming. We have already dedicated a lot of Internet ink to this race, so I will try not to go over the same stuff. Needless to say, I have been very surprised that the DCCC has not yet spent a cent in this race. All polling in this race has shown Trauner tied or ahead: a Mason-Dixon from January showed him up 41-40, an R2K in late-May had it at 44-41, and an R2K from last month found Trauner and his opponent Cynthia Lummis tied 42-42. While I think the latter poll oversampled independents and undersampled Republicans, the fact is that Trauner is at worst down only a few points. The race is incredibly winnable in the second most Republican state in the country. There is no question Trauner faces a tall order to winning: while he lost by only 1,012 votes in 2006, he is no longer facing an unpopular incumbent in outgoing Rep. Barbara Cubin. Nor does he get to appear under popular Gov. Dave Freudenthal on the ballot again. Rather, he has to contend with John McCain and both popular Wyoming Senators running against weak challengers on the November ballot. He has a very hard fight ahead of him, but Trauner has run a strong campaign, he has out-raised his opponent, and Lummis' campaign has not well-distinguished itself. Trauner is going to need a lot of help to win, which could come in the form of a big cash infusion from the DCCC. This seems logical since Trauner was one of the first additions to the 2008 Red to Blue program. Maybe Trauner has told the DCCC to stay out, or perhaps there is the over-ridding belief that Democratic ads in this state could backfire. If either is so, then perhaps the lack of activity by the DCCC is understandable. But if not, it makes no sense. This is as conservative a district as ID-01, but is probably even more winnable. This is a reach, yes, but it is one that has a good chance of paying off for Democrats.

Conclusion

These are most of the races that the DCCC has yet to invest in that I believe the committee should wade into heavily. There are of course others like WV-02, VA-10, FL-13, GA-08, KY-03, MN-06, NJ-05, and AL-03 which have promise. But in my opinion, those are the super-reaches (excluding KY-03 and GA-08 which are held by Democrats). The districts listed above, combined with the 51 or so that the DCCC has already spent in, provide a big enough map of opportunities. Reaching is good -- and several of the ones above like ID-01, TX-07, and WY-AL are big reaches -- but there is a limit, even with this year's map and this DCCC's funding riches.

Again, the DCCC has done a great and ambitious job so far. I think that when it is all said and done, most of the districts above will be taken care of by the DCCC; heck, they might get helped tonight. I just wanted to highlight them since they are as attractive and winnable as many of the 51.