Dole Channels Jesse

Tom Jensen over at the blog for Public Policy Polling makes an interesting observation on Elizabeth Dole's new commerical in North Carolina where she assails her opponent, Kay Hagan, for taking money from an atheist group the ad labels "godless Americans." The ad closes with a woman doing an impression of Hagan saying "there is no God." Jensen says the following about the ad:

Their new Godless Americans ad simply smacks of desperation. It's the 2008 version of Jesse Helms' hands ad. The problem is that North Carolina has changed a heck of a lot since then, and I'm not sure that kind of campaign tactic is still going to be effective here. Hagan is doing well because she's so popular with suburbanites, the folks who have moved here from outside the state. Is this kind of bogeyman really going to work with them? I doubt it, but I guess we'll see.

Based in the Tarheel State, PPP has been polling and following the close North Carolina Senate race very closely, so I take their views and opinions on North Carolina contests very seriously.

Anyway, Jensen's thoughts here got me to thinking about the changing South and Jesse Helms. I agree that Dole's ad smacks of the desperation of a campaign that is losing, but more it does reflect on Dole's inability to detect both the changing political dynamics of her state and that this ad may fall flat in 2008.

For those who don't know, former Senator Jesse Helms' "white hands" ad is both famous and infamous in the history of political campaigns as a textbook example of using white fears against affirmative action specifically and black candidates in general. In 1990, finding himself down fairly late in his re-election campaign to Harvey Gantt, the black mayor of Charlotte, Helms aired the hands ad to stoke white apprensions with Gantt and racial quota laws. The commercial is widely credited with playing a key role in helping Helms make a comeback and ultimately win by 52-48. If you have never seen it, click the link and check it out. It is a pretty powerful piece of media, and you can easily see why it was effective in 1990.

First, it is obvious that Dole is desperate. As the polls taken over the last two weeks show, she is staring at a deficit right now, with little time left on the clock:

49-42 Hagan (PPP, 10/18-10/19)
44-41 Hagan (Civitas, 10/18-10/20)
46-45 Hagan (SUSA, 10/18-10/20)
44-43 Hagan (WSOC-TV, 10/20-10/21)
47-43 Hagan (AP/GfK, 10/22-10/26)
48-45 Hagan (PPP, 10/25-10/26)
45-43 Hagan (Civitas, 10/27-10/29)
45-43 Hagan (National Journal/FD, 10/23-10/27)
52-46 Hagan (Rasmussen, 10/29)

Dole is down in a contest she was once expected to win easily. It is a tough position to be in, so her reliance on attacks at this late stage is to be expected.

But really, I think the bigger story with this ad is how Dole and her campaign fail to appreciate how the state has changed. This is not the same North Carolina that elected and re-elected Jesee Helms those five times. The very fact that Barack Obama is even close here demonstrates that. Ironically, even CNN analyst Alex Castellanos, the very man who put together the hands ad (and a North Carolina man himself), criticized Dole's commercial.

Maybe Elizabeth Dole can come back and win. North Carolina isn't exactly New York just yet. But she's losing now, and I think that her willingness to put up this type of ad shows a lack of appreciation for both today's North Carolina and the national climate she is running in. Really, Dole is not the savviest of politicians, and that she failed to prepare for a tough race this year kind of shows that too.

Indeed, old habits die hard in politics, and this may be a year where the typical attack ads employed by conservative GOPers fall flat. We are seeing this trend in many states. We will see Tuesday night.