Significantly more Democrats than Republicans have cast ballots at this early stage in Iowa, North Carolina, New Mexico and Ohio, according to data analyzed by The New York Times.
Information from counties representing more than 90 percent of Nevada’s population show Democrats also holding a commanding advantage in early voter turnout.
In Florida, however, Republicans appear to hold the upper hand, while in Colorado, early voting is about evenly split among Republicans and Democrats. Mr. Bush won all those states in 2004.
The dates when early voting begins and ends vary by state. Experts cautioned that the full impact of early voting cannot be known until the choices of those without party affiliations become more clear on Election Day.
In years past, however, early voting has tended to favor Republicans, according to voting experts. Mr. Bush won the early vote in 2004 in his race against Senator John F. Kerry, 60 percent to 40 percent. Mr. Bush won early voters by a similar margin in his 2000 run against Vice President Al Gore. As a result, the preliminary data from some states has surprised certain experts.“In the past, what you’ve seen is early voters tend to be older, had higher incomes and lean more Republican and that trend has held over the past elections,” said Paul Gronke, executive director of the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College in Oregon. “But what we are seeing now when you look at the numbers is that they are more African-American, Hispanic and the young. I look at this and I go, ‘Wow!’ This is quite different. It is a lot different from what we’ve seen before and it has to raise concerns for the G.O.P.”
In 2004, 22 percent of voters cast an early presidential ballot; in 2000, 16 percent voted early. But a national poll of 2,500 registered voters conducted from Oct. 16 to 19, released Tuesday by the Pew Research Center, indicated the number could grow in 2008, with 24 percent saying they planned to vote before Election Day and 7 percent indicating they already had.
Both figures were up significantly from a survey conducted in the same period in 2004. The poll found Mr. Obama held a commanding advantage among early voters, which Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew center, said could be problematic for Senator John McCain.
It would thus appear that early voting in five critical states -- Iowa, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Nevada -- seems to favor Obama. Interestingly, more Republicans seem to be voting early in Florida where Obama has held an advantage in recent state polling, but it is vital to note that Florida's early voting polls opened yesterday, and that that number is likely based on absentee ballot voting. That Colorado is even is also encouraging for John McCain, and it continues to make me wonder why the GOP ticket would pull out of a state that has been appreciably closer than Pennsylvania.
Nevertheless, these are clearly not great trends for the GOP ticket, as noted above. That early voting has in the past favored Republican national candidates surprised me at first glance, but the explanation provided makes a lot of sense. More affluent and engaged voters were more likely than not to be Republicans. That Bush won early voters by 3-to-2 just four years ago should raise alarm bells. Whereas the Republican base was energized enough to push Bush to victory against John Kerry, there is no question that this year there is a chasm between Democratic and Republican voter enthusiasm.
What is really stark, as the article notes, is that many of these early voters are comprised of groups that typically do not vote early: blacks, Hispancis, young people -- not groups that one typically associates with bedrock constituencies of the Republican Party.
The Times goes on:
Some of the most detailed early voting data examined by The Times came from North Carolina, a state Republicans have rarely had to defend but Mr. Obama is vigorously contesting. More than 481,000 ballots have been cast in the state, a significant increase from this time in 2004.
At this point, 56 percent of the early voters in North Carolina are Democrats, compared with 27 percent who are Republicans and 16 percent unaffiliated. Democrats also had a slightly larger share of white voters and represented more than 90 percent of the black vote, which could help turn the tide in a state that last voted for a Democrat for president in 1976.
...
In Iowa, meanwhile, more than 200,000 ballots have already been received by the state. Democrats have returned about 52 percent of them compared with 20 percent for Republicans....
In New Mexico, the breakdown so far has been: Democrats 55 percent, Republicans 35 percent, independents 11 percent. In Ohio, it has been: Democrats 46 percent, Republicans 24 percent and independents 30 percent.
In Colorado, Republicans represented 40 percent of the combined early vote, while Democrats had 38 percent.
In Florida, more than 785,000 ballots have been cast, with Republicans accounting for about 47 percent of them, compared with 39 percent for Democrats and 11 percent for independents.
Like the ones we posted yesterday, there are incredibly stark numbers. 52-20 (+32) in Iowa, 56-36(+20) among early voters in North Carolina, 55-35 (+20) in New Mexico, and 40-38 (+2) in Colorado. In several of these key swing states, Senator Obama has almost totally reversed John Kerry's fortunes.
While there is still over a week left in many states' early voting periods, and some listed here have been open for less time than others, if a 20-point lead is sustained in New Mexico and North Carolina, both states are likely unwinnable for McCain assuming that high early voter turnout continues. Forget Iowa; though, most people already have. The others look to be more competitive, but again, the gap in Florida will close once early voting is in full swing.
McCain should be happy with Colorado so far, but he cannot win without North Carolina or Georgia, and the early voting trends in both states are simply not good for Republicans. There is no other way to slice it.
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