Recently, I have been wondering why the DCCC had not yet really waded into TX-22 as much it has in other districts with vulnerable Democrats, as Congressman Nick Lampson has been, since the start of this Congress, the most endangered Democrat in the entire House of Representatives. After all, the DCCC had spent in several dozens of races, included on numerous other Democrats who are unquestionably less vulnerable than Lampson. Well, a new Zogby poll conducted for the Houston Chronicle may have answered my inquiry. In a poll of the district, Zobgy found the following split:
Nick Lampson (D) 36
Pete Olsen (R) 53
Ouch. If this true, I think it pretty much explains why the DCCC has not really been active in this district as in others (though it has spent $764,000 here in total). It would be well reflective (which is somewhat questionable since Zogby is such a crummy pollster) of what the internal polling has been saying about this contest all year.
As a result, what likely happened in TX-22 is that the DCCC looked at the landscape, saw little improvement in Lampson's numbers and little chance for him to win, and made a brutal but fair decision to spend elsewhere. It's a rough way of doing business, but electoral politics is a zero-sum game. Nothing matters besides winning.
In the interest of fair disclosure, I also ranked TX-22 as leaning Democrat. I think it is safe to say that Stu Rothenberg and others have been right that this race is a toss-up at best for Democrats and that my vaunted instincts may be wrong here. I may need to revisit that one. I feel badly for Nick Lampson, who was pushed out of Congress in 2004 by Tom DeLay's redistricting scheme, but this is a seat Democrats were lucky to win in the first place.
Sorry to question you DCCC, you guys know your numbers better than I do. I will leave my doubts for Tom Cole.
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3 comments:
I think Lampson numbers are being understated in this poll. Remember, the TX GOP carved out some reliablly republican precincts from this district to create other GOP seats. Lampson is a local boy who has done his homework and the environment is just toxic for the GOP. The DCCC is making a big mistake abandoning Lampson, it will be a very narrow margin on election day.
You might be right. Honestly, I have no clue since there have been no released polls (until yesterday), and very little coverage of this race, even in Houston.
Also, I would not say they have abandoned him -- they have dropped a lot of money here, just less than in a lot of other districts that are less endangered (and have been that way all year, such as NH-01, for example).
Personally, I still think Lampson has a shot. He is a likeable guy. The only issue is whether the constituents there can pull the lever for a Dem. He deserves to win, and really, the people there would be nuts to turn out the guy who will chair the NASA subcommittee. Sadly, voters are not that logical in their voting patterns and most people don't understand the value of seniority one bit. Come to think of it, this is a subject I should look at some time...
You know what I think is weird, I suspect that Southern voters are returning to their ticket splitting ways (Reagan and Bush/local Dem Congressman) after while East Coasters, Westerners and some Midwesterners are becoming more straight party voters. Whodathunkit?
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