Presidential Ticket Favorables

The New York Times and CBS News have just released some new polling data that is worth a look. Specifically, the Times looks at their survey's newest favorable/unfavorables splits for the four people on the major party presidential tickets, Barack Obama, John McCain, Joe Biden, and Sarah Palin. We will go through all four candidates separately. The numbers in parenthesis represent the results from the last poll taken from September 21 to 24.

Barack Obama favorables

53 favorable/33 unfavorable (43/26) Change: from +17 to +20

Among men: 57/27 (39/23) +16 to +30
Among women: 50/37 (45/28) +17 to +22

Among Democrats: 88/6 (78/4) +74 to +82
Among Republicans: 13/64 (10/51) -41 to -51
Among Independents: 51/33 (34/29) +5 to +18

Whites: 47/38 (37/30) +7 to +9

Under 45 years old: 58/35 (44/22) +22 to +23
Over 45 years old: 49/31 (42/30) +12 to +18

Wow. October's been a good month Barack Obama's personal numbers. He has shown strong gains across the board, most notably improving drastically among and with his base, where it appears like it it completely sewn up now, at the level of where the GOP base has been for much of the campaign. While his numbers have dropped 10 points aggregate among Republicans, this should be surprising as the race is getting closer to the finish line and the campaign has gotten much nastier.

To me, the most important number is the independent number, were Obama went from a +5 to +18 among this key demographic bloc. if Obama can remain at 51/33 among indies -- a group which was once McCain's own bedrock of support -- he is likely unbeatable.

John McCain favorables

36 favorable/45 unfavorable (36/35) Change: from +1 to -9

Among men: 33/46 (36/33) +3 to -13
Among women: 39/44 (36/37) -1 to -5

Among Democrats: 9/75 (10/67) -57 to -66
Among Republicans: 65/8 (65/10) +55 to +57
Among Independents: 39/44 (42/24) +18 to -5

Whites: 41/41 (40/32) +8 to even

Under 45 years old: 34/45 (30/32) -2 to -11
Over 45 years old: 38/44 (40/37) +3 to -6

The movement of McCain's numbers may be as bad as Obama's are good. McCain has plunged everywhere, registering just a two point bump among his own party base. These are atrocious numbers for the Republican. Interestingly, he only dropped four points with women but fell 16 points among men. However, the biggest drop here is with independents where McCain headed south to the tune of 23 points. 23 points!

Remember, independents have always been McCain's electoral base. They were his rock of support in the 2000 GOP primary, and going into this year, it was assumed that McCain could win by appealing to indies with his maverick credentials. Because of the eocnomic crisis, the increasing negative tenor of his campaign, and perhaps other factors, McCain is no longer strong with this group. And not only have they turned against the Arizona Senator, but they are now flocking to Senator Obama. This accounts for Sen. Obama's jump in all of the recent national polls, and it accounts for the biggest problem facing Team McCain right now (among many problems).

Joe Biden favorables

50 favorable/14 unfavorable (36/14) Change: +22 to +36

Among men: 49/12 (35/13) +22 to +37
Among women: 50/16 (36/14) +22 to +34

Among Democrats: 71/4 (58/2) +56 to +67
Among Republicans: 26/27 (12/32) -20 to -1
Among Independents: 47/15 (31/11) +20 to +32

Whites: 46/14 (34/15) +19 to +32

Under 45 years old: 44/9 (30/9) +21 to +35
Over 45 years old: 55/17 (41/19) +22 to +35

Impressively, Biden's numbers and his overall growth might a bit more impressive than his running mate's. Biden saw a healthy jump across the board, even with Republicans where he gained 19 points and now viewed just about evenly by voters on the other side.

It is safe to say that the Biden pick has worked out perfectly for Team Obama. He has provided the perceived experience and needed stability to the ticket. More importantly, however, he has not screwed up. Biden has not really said or done anything really bad that has ended up costing Obama. Now, part of that is that the media has basically ignored him to cover the spectacle that is the GOP veep, but really, Biden has been solid. By not messing up, he is reaping good support across the board.

I believe that Biden's good numbers and solid growth can be explained by the great contrast he presents to Sarah Palin. Whereas she is seen as inexperienced and a bit unsteady, Biden has a wealth of experience and tremendous political steadiness. Because he is everything she is not, I think as her negatives have been exposed and magnified, voters look at Biden and are appreciating how different he is from the GOP's #2. This contrast has made the Biden pick look perfect given all of the circumstances. In the end, Biden won't win the election for Obama by any means, but unlike Palin he is absolutely not hurting his running mate on iota, and with a veep, that's important.

Sarah Palin favorables

30 favorable/41 unfavorable (35/29) Change: +6 to -11

Among men: 27/41 (35/27) +8 to -14
Among women: 33/41 (35/30) +5 to -8

Among Democrats: 9/70 (11/59) -48 to -61
Among Republicans: 51/14 (59/4) +55 to +37
Among Independents: 38/33 (42/19) +23 to +5

Whites: 34/37 (39/26) +13 to -3

Under 45 years old: 26/39 (30/27) +3 to -13
Over 45 years old: 34/42 (40/31) +9 to -8

Ugly ugly ugly. Palin too has dropped everywhere. We've all known this for a while, but the bloom is really off the Alaska rose. Like with McCain she experienced an even greater drop with men than with women, losing 22 points with men, but "just" 13 points with the fairer sex.

Startlingly, Palin dropped 18 points with indies and with Republicans. She is still at +37 with GOPers, but note that Biden is at +67 with his base. Even some conservatives are questioning Palin's ability and credenitals. These individuals might not vote for Obama in the end, but they also might stay home, which is almost equally bad for the GOP.

Clearly, Palin is not the force for the ticket that John McCain, Mark Salter, Charlie Black, and Steve Schmidt had foreseen.