Colorado Early Voting

While we noted this morning that early voting in Colorado has only very narrowly supported Democrats so far, as this article from today's Denver Post shows, there is of course more to the story. The numbers are as follows:

Registered voters
Total: 3,202,465
Democrat: 1,050,634 (32.8%)
Republican: 1,062,986 (33.2%)
Unaffiliated: 1,069,615 (33.4%)

Mail-in ballot requests
Total: 1,540,107
Democrat: 563,742 (36.6%)
Republican: 540,229 (35.1%)
Unaffiliated: 427,040 (27.7%)

Turnout at early-voting centers (early voting started Monday 10/21)
Total: 20,601
Democrat: 9,173 (44.5%)
Republican: 6,309 (30.6%)
Unaffiliated: 5,016 (24.4%)

Clearly, it is tight. While Republicans currently hold a very slight registration advantage in the state, Democrats have so far requested slightly more ballots through the mail. Additionally, after just a small sample of early voting has taken place at the polls(one day), Democrats have a nice lead. Just look at who is showing up at the polls, as with Florida, the very early numbers show a more different story than absentee balloting (in Florida) and mail-in ballots (here in Colorado).

The article also notes that Democratic fortunes in specific parts of the state are particularly noteworthy and positive for the blue team.

Getting out the vote through mail-in ballots has historically been the forte of Republicans. In Arapahoe County, for instance, Republicans cast 48 percent of the mail-in ballots in 2004, when the county went for President Bush. Democrats cast 30 percent of the mail-in ballots.

This year in Arapahoe County, Democratic mail-in ballot requests are outnumbering Republican ones by about 2,500, according to the Secretary of State's numbers.

"Even if the numbers were even," said local political analyst Eric Sondermann, "I would say that's probably a positive sign for Democrats given the Republicans' historic dominance of mail-in voting."

Araphoe County is a key county, and the fourth largest one in the state. In 2004, John Kerry did well here, but fell short of President Bush by 51-48. Given the closeness of the state both in 2004 and this year, if Obama can win Araphoe, combined with likely massive wins in Denver and Boulder counties, he would be in good standing in the state.