Florida Early Voting

In a post this morning, we noted that Democrats were not enjoying the wide advantage in Florida's early voting numbers that we have been seeing in other states. Indeed, a big part of this is because early voting just started in the state yesterday. Additionally, while Democrats have been out-numbered Republicans early, Republicans have a big advantage among absentees voters in Florida.

An article in the Miami Herald today discusses a problem which might dilute any Democratic advantage in state early voting. The article discusses that a 2005 state law signed by former Governor Jeb Bush that limits the time that early voting precincts are open in the state from 12 hours, to eight, leading many polling places to close at around 3 PM before many people are able to get off work.

Saying early voting cost too much money with rules that weren't uniform, Republican legislators led a charge three years ago to set new statewide standards limiting the number of polling sites and their hours of operation.

Those revamped rules trimmed early voting from 12 hours per workday to eight.

During the first presidential election since Gov. Jeb Bush signed the bill in 2005, the new law's impact can be seen throughout South Florida: exhausting lines at polling sites in Miami-Dade and Broward that led voters to miss work, senior citizens to beg for chairs and voting advocates to question whether some are being disenfranchised.

From Miami City Hall to the Southwest Regional Library in Pembroke Pines, voters on Monday and Tuesday -- the first two days of early voting -- sweated out waits of two to five hours. Broward reported record turnout for early voting, which ends Nov. 2.

Many Florida Democrats argue that the change was made to depress Democratic turnout, as early voting in Florida (excepting absentee voting) has generally favored Democrats in the state. The Florida legislature has been safely in Republican hands for several years.

House Bill 1567 took effect during the 2006 election cycle. Before its passage, early voting centers could remain open for up to 12 hours on weekdays, and for a total of eight hours over the weekend.

Today, early voting sites are limited to eight hours on weekdays and a total of eight aggregate hours on weekends. Local governments are now limited to using libraries, city halls and election headquarters as polling sites.

In Miami-Dade, where early voting booths open at 7 a.m., the centers stop taking voters at 3 -- well before most people get off work. Broward's early voting precincts run from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. during the week.

Note that Miami-Dade and Broward are two Florida's biggest counties, they are greatly urban, and they are mostly Democratic. Therefore, by hampering the ability of many citizens to vote early, it is very possible that this law will end up actively depressing early voter turnout. To wit:

While absentee ballots, especially in Florida with its large military presence, tend to favor Republicans, early voting has largely benefited Democrats. Early voting figures across Florida show that of the 153,000 early votes cast throughout the state Monday, almost 56 percent were from Democrats, 29 percent from Republicans and 15 percent from others, according to the Florida Democratic Party.

Nearly a quarter of the Democratic votes were cast in Broward, Miami-Dade, Duval, Hillsborough, Palm Beach and Orange counties, the report said.

There were long lines everywhere Monday and Tuesday, with many places giving voters a number to wait their turn, as if in a store line that stretched for blocks outside.

At the North Miami branch library on Monday, the crowd was filled with many Haitian immigrants or first-generation Americans of Haitian descent voting for the first time.

As it turns out, after the first day of early voting, Democrats are enjoying a 56-29 advantage among the around 150,000 early so far cast at the polls. The 47-39 number we cited from the Times earlier which favors Republicans is likely based largely on absentee numbers.

It is unfortunate that this new law is most profoundly impacting urban areas, but this is a result which would hurt Obama given that these are Democratic base counties in the state. As it stands, this is only based on one day of voting. Hopefully, the long lines will dissipate, but this does not seem likely given the amount of new voters on the rolls:

The delays are likely to continue during the two-week early voting period. Since 2004, Miami-Dade has added 184,514 voters and is now up to 1,243,315.

Broward also totals more than one million registered voters, making the two counties the only ones in the state with that distinction.

The number I take away from this article is 56-29. It is only one day, but if Obama can come anywhere close to maintaining this advantage in Florida come November 4, he should carry the state's 27 electoral votes.