Guilford County, North Carolina

Home to the city of Greensboro, Guilford County, North Carolina is the state's third largest county. It is just about at the center of North Carolina, and it is one of the key areas in the state for any candidate running statewide.

Perhaps most saliently, it is one of the state's more toss-up counties where both parties can compete to win, but where Democrats sometimes enjoy a advantage. With a population of a bit under 500,000 people, the county is approximately 31 percent black and six percent Hispanic, whereas the state as a whole is close to 22 percent black and five percent Hispanic. With North Carolina very close in the polls, Guilford County will be a crucial battleground to determine which presidential candidate gets the Tarheel State's 15 electoral votes.

Today, there is another article today on early voting patters, this one from central North Carolina, which discusses early voting so far in Guilford County. The News-Record of Greensboro is reporting that Democrats are out-voting Republicans in the county through the first eight days of early voting by a margin of approximately 3-to-1. Statewide, that margin is a still-impressive 2-to-1 margin so far.

Through Wednesday, Guilford County counted almost 33,000, or at least 20 percent more voters in 2008 than over the same week in 2004. Add the number who voted in this year’s first Sunday voting, which was not offered in 2004, and the increase for the first week climbs to 40 percent. And since voting began Oct. 16, the elections office has added extra voting machines at nearly every voting site to cut down lines.

About 60 percent of Guilford County’s 340,000 voters are expected to vote this year, and some elections officials estimate that up to half of those might vote early.

Keep in mind that John Kerry lost North Carolina in 2004 by 56-44, and won Guilford County by around one percent, 50-49, with just about 200,000 votes cast. Guilford will not determine the winner in the state, with Mecklenberg, Wake, and other tight counties also holding a key in whether Barack Obama can overtake John McCain here. Nevertheless, these early voting numbers demonstrate once again that Democratic enthusiasm across the country seems to be riding much, much higher than its counterpart.

So far, the race in North Carolina is looking tight. Let's take a quick look at the recent polling over the last two weeks. This is the freshest data, and perhaps not surprisingly, there has been a lot of polling.

49-46 Obama (Public Policy Polling (PPP), 10/11-10/12)
48-48 Tied (Rasmussen, 10/12)
*50-46 Obama (Zogby Internet, 10/9-10/13)
48-46 Obama (Insider Advantage, 10/13)
46-44 Obama (R2K, 10/14-10/15)
*45-44 Obama (Winthrop/ETV, 9/28-10/19)
51-44 Obama (PPP, 10/18-10/19)
49-48 Obama (Insider Advantage, 10/19)
51-48 Obama (Rasmussen, 10/19)
*50-47 Obama (Zogby Internet, 10/17-10/20)
47-47 Tied (SUSA, 10/18-10/20)
48-45 Obama (Civitas, 10/18-20/20)
51-47 Obama (CNN/Time, 10/19-10/21)
48-46 Obama (WSOC-TV, 10/20-10/21)
50-48 McCain (Rasmussen, 10/23)

Talk about a tight one. Average out, we get

John McCain 46.4
Barack Obama 48.6

If we take out the starred ones which apply to the two Zogby Internet polls and the Winthrop poll which was taken over three weeks, the averages are

John McCain 46.6
Barack Obama 48.7

You think the huge gap in party enthusiam could make a difference in such a tight contest? I do too.