Recent NRCC Expenditures

The last few days brought a veritable flurry of spending for the mostly-moribund NRCC. I just wanted to highlight the 20 or so races the GOP dropped dough to see if we can detect any new patterns or salient developments. The numbers below reflect spending just in the last week.

FL-21: $564 K
CO-04: $429 K
MI-07: $254 K
OH-15: $239 K
*NH-01: $234 K
OH-01: $223 K
ID-01: $225 K
VA-02: $197 K
MO-06: $161 K
*WI-08: $135 K
PA-03: $128 K
*LA-06: $110 K
AL-02: $97 K
MO-09: $93 K
NY-29: $71 K
WA-08: $60 K
*CA-11: $56 K
AL-05: $51 K
OH-02: $50 K
*PA-11: $50 K
*TX-22: $41 K
NY-26: $38 K
NJ-03: $19 K

In total, as the asterisks indicate, all but six of these districts are currently GOP-controlled. Those six represent the places the NRCC is trying to play some offense. With the exception of CA-11 and WI-08, the rest of them should be on any list of the very most vulnerable Dem-held districts. The GOP has dropped over 400 grand against Steve Kagan in the Green Bay district, so we have to figure they really have some good polling there, because right now the public polling in the district is not showing a tight race, and McCain's lack of offense in the state can't help the GOP regain the seat.

The GOP must be very nervous about Lincoln Diaz-Balart in Florida, as over half a million dollars is a lot of coin. I would start worrying about brother Mario's seat in FL-25 as well, but with the DCCC only spending $125 there so far, maybe they can afford to wait. Personally, I think Mario is in bigger trouble with Raul Martinez carrying more baggage than Joe Garcia.

Additionally, the money drop here for Marilyn Musgrave in eastern Colorado represents the committee's first big foray into that district. Honestly, I thought they would have given up on the seat, but the GOP seems committed to protecting a lot of endangered Republicans who appear dead in the water.

The expenditure here that probably hurt the most is ID-01. That the GOP had to dump almost a quarter of a million to save Bill Sali's hide had to have given some heartburn to Tom Cole. Perhaps Walt Minnick's internals showing this as a close race are true. I see no way the NRCC spends money in an R+19 seat unless that's true. If I was Tom Cole, I would not drop a nickel there becuase the seat could easily be won back in 2010, while a rep like Sali will always give you some problems. Checking right now, SUSA is now reporting Sali down 51-45. Wow. I am not sure if I believe that number, but again, the GOP may be better of letting Sali lose and then going after Walt Minnick with both barrels in 2010. Minnick would undoubtedly be the most threatened incumbent in America.

The situation with Jean Schimdt in OH-02 is somewhat similar, where the Republicans dropped a $50,000. I bet they feel better about this one given the small buy. For their part, Democrats just dropped their first $145 K here. The Democratic candidate just hasn't been able to get huge traction here so far, but Schmidt is not yet safe either.

The nearly $200 K for Thelma Drake in southeast Virginia is eye-opening, as is the big buy in OH-15, a district which we think is a lost cause. At this point, the NRCC clearly has deemed the 15th more salvagable than the 16th, where they haven't spent much in. In terms of Drake, the race may be tightening and with Obama opening up a 10-point lead statewide, reps like Drake and Frank Wolf should be nervous. As a reliable conservative, Drake's inclusion on this list should not be surprising.

I find the seats at the bottom puzzling. Either the GOP feels confident about NY-26, or the committee is expecting self-funder Chris Lee to flip the bill out of his own pockets, because the Democrats have spent heavily here. This may partially explain TX-22 too, probably the GOP's best pick-up opportunity short of Tim Mahoney's seat. I realize the GOP said they were out there, but if they spending in any open seats, this should be the first one they invest in.

Then again, this fits with their new credo to focus almost solely on incumbents. NY-29 is also strange, since Randy Kuhl is in such trouble. I think this seat is a goner, and maybe Tom Cole agrees.

Finally, the pitiful buy in NJ-03 is sad for Chris Myers. As we have said before, Myers could win, but the NRCC is strapped because the tv market there is Philadelphia. Myers, despite the great opportunity to hold the retiring Jim Saxton's seat, might be really screwed in the face of John Adler's fortune and the DCCC's largese.

Looking this list over only reinforces one of my theses regarding NRCC spending in this final month: that the GOP is committed to saving incumbents for sure, but more, the most staunch conservative incumbents. Notice that the highest spending this week was for Marilyn Musgrave (leader of the drive to constitutionally ban gay marriage), Steve Chabot (staunch social conservative in a moderate district), Tim Walberg (Club for Growther), and Bill Sali (comically absurd ultra-conservative).

Since they have such limited resources, I have no doubt that the party wants most to save the most reliable conservatives, while leaving moderates to fend for themselves. Now, I acknowledge that men like Chris Shays and Mark Kirk are from wealthy districts and have raised well on their own, but I have little doubt that the NRCC is less inclined to help men like these because they stupidly just don't like the moderates in their ranks. It's one thing to save a moderate seat, and it's quite another to save a strong conservative vote in the caucus, and we are seeing that that is definitely priority number one.

Indeed, I find it very interesting that the NRCC is moving heaven and earth to save Tim Walberg, while it has already announced that Joe Knollenberg, a more moderate Republican from a slightly less Republican district is on his own. Coincidence? And what about the stories that the Republican Study Committee and the NRCC are mobilizing to save one of their stalwarts, John Shadegg, who finds himself in a surprisingly tight race? The GOP wants to save one of its staunchest conservative champions, probably at the expense of a handful of moderate seats and reps.

While it is late at night and I am too tired to go through every race with the fine-toothed comb that is my pair of eyes, I feel strong in my assessment here. It is a small sample size of races, but I think the evidence is there. Sure, some conservatives like Tom Feeney have been left for dead, but I think the NRCC knows when to fold them, as Feeney (and assuredly some others) are way down in the polls and probably not salvagable.

Tomorrow, I will try to go through DCCC spending this week. Obviously there is a lot more of it, but we'll try to highlight some of the new races just like here.