The Folly of an RNC Retreat

A couple of days ago, a friend of mine sent me a link to a blog post which reported a source saying that the RNC is on the verge of stopping its joint ads with the McCain campaign in order to concentrate its formidible resources instead into several key congessional races which are on the verge of being lost by the GOP. While I have no idea if this is at all accurate -- you can't believe much of what any blog reports as fact (as opposed to opinion, which is what we do here) -- I have several quick thoughts on this.

If this is true, it is absolutely amazing that the RNC is going to pull the plug on the McCain campaign. The RNC's very existence is to prop up the national party (it is the DNC's purpose as well), and in turn, raise money for the every-four-years White House contest. If the RNC pulled the plug on the presidential campaign, it would be the biggest indictment of McCain one can make. If your number one institutional cheerleader says 'no mas', you are finished. I just don't see it with 25 days left.

This would also be simply bad strategy. If McCain loses by 12 points as opposed to six, the results will be much worse across the board for Republicans. They will lose everything. In other words, pulling the plug would be the RNC playing small ball to spread around their final riches on a couple dozen House and Senate races while letting the White House race get out of hand. The RNC exists to play major league ball, and always keep its eye on the biggest picture: the presidency.

If McCain ends up losing by double digits nationally -- and if the RNC pulls out, that would be more likely -- then that would end up washing away everything regardless of the RNC spreading out its dollars to multiple races. It would be like trying to plug the smaller holes in the boat and ignoring the very biggest one. They may be in huge trouble either way, but my view is that it is not the right move. You could dump a million dollars into the Mississippi Senate contest, for example, to save Roger Wicker, but what does that do to counter black turnout? Probably nothing, and if black turnout hits 40 percent in the Magnolia State, they are breaking 96-4 Dem anyway, and carrying Musgrove over the finish line. The top-of-the-ticket races dictates things like that, so even if you're doomed to lose, the ultimate top-of-the-ticket margin still matters immensely.

Take a look at Michigan for a moment. As we discussed here, McCain's decision to pull out was not just bad strategy, but also a move which doomed two threatened Republican congressmen locked in tough re-election fights in the Wolverine State. By pulling his resources and man-power from the state, McCain conceded it to Obama, allowing the Democrat to rack-up a likely double digit victory in the state. McCain's move thus left Reps. Tim Walberg and Joe Knowlenberg as open as sitting ducks to be overrun and cut down by Obama's money and forces working in tandem with the already well-funded opponents of the congressmen. Pulling back its money from the White House contest would have the same result, albeit on a much broader scale.

I just do not believe this rumor. Giving up on the White House race would undermine the very purpose of the RNC. Speaking more practically, an absolute Democratic landslide in the presidential race would undermine GOP House and Senate candidates across the nation just the same. It would be a foolish decision. Funding House and Senate races is what the NRCC and the NRSC are for.