Chris Cillizza is Wrong

Chris Cillizza is the author of the Washington Post's popular blog, "The Fix." Cillizza generally writes a lot of sharp analysis, and he is well-known for "the line" where he ranks the hottest House, Senate, and presidential state contests. They are fun and insightful reading always. Today, however, I would like to take Cillizza to task for his comments this morning on the Mississippi Senate race which I think are short-sighted and plainly wrong.

In his most recent Senate Line posted today, Cillizza removed the Wicker-Musgrove contest from his top ten most competitive, making the following observation:

In Mississippi, Democrats' chances seemed to have slipped somewhat as appointed Sen. Roger Wicker (R) has found his footing. The x-factor in the Magnolia State is what black turnout will look like with Barack Obama atop the ticket. A historically high turnout among African Americans could hand former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) a come-from-behind win, though today that seems unlikely.

In a chat this morning he followed up his rankings with this comment on the race:

The problem is that Mississippi remains pretty conservative and ultimately voters appear to be coming home to Wicker. And, Republicans have done a VERY good job of eviscerating Musgrove and his tenure as governor -- complicating further Democrats' chances.

Chris, Christ, Chris, what are you talking about? Unless there is polling in the last few days showing a Musgrove fall or a Wicker rise, how exactly has Wicker regained his footing? The dude just put up an ad touting black Obama-Wicker voters! Does that sound like the action of a candidate who feels good about his standing?

In terms of Wicker's and Republicans' attacks on Musgrove for what they argue was Musgrove's failed tenure as governor, I agree that the attacks have been very biting. However, their effectiveness is questionable. As we noted in an earlier post, Musgrove's favorable numbers with whites have always been between 23 and 26 percent in R2K's polling of the contest all year. And in terms of his support among black voters, it has only grown, at least according to R2K. The fact is that most of Wicker's attack ads have been geared towards turning whites away from Musgrove, yet he is still in the range he needs with whites to win the election.

Maybe Cillizza is looking at internal data that is hot off the computer this week. I don't know. But R2K's poll showing a 47-46 contest (and 12 percent undecided black voters) was released October 17, and it mirrored the most recent Rasmussen poll showing the race at 49-47. There has been no evidence going into this week that Wicker has made a surge or Musgrove has collapsed. None. And I read the news wires and Mississippi papers every day.

Chris, you know your stuff, but I strongly disagree with your conclusion on this race.