Montana?

Marc Ambinder is reporting that the Republican National Committee is going on the air in Montana to bolster John McCain in a state that has tightened in recent weeks.

You read that correctly. Montana. The same Mountain West state that George Bush carried by 20 points in 2004, and 25 points in 2000.

Apparently, the national GOP is panicking about Obama's increased standing in the state, and Ambinder speculates (likely correctly given this ad buy) that the party believes Ron Paul's presence on the ballot could cost McCain the state. It is a move that says a lot about the state of John McCain's campaign that the national party is dropping dough in what is a red oasis in presidential elections.

Really, though, I think the real story here is about the intelligence of the national Republican Party in general. Think about this a moment: what the heck is the point of spending a nickel in this state? It has three electoral votes. If John McCain ends up losing here, he is going to lose everywhere: Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, and maybe even places like North Dakota and Georgia. It will be a national blow-out if Montana is lost, which is why spending on the presidential contest in the state is a total waste of resources.

If the RNC wants to project McCain, they should be spending all of this money in those endangered swing states that Bush held -- Ohio and Florida, for example -- and not on small reach states like this. Furthermore, even though I called RNC stupid for contemplating pulling out of the White House race entirely to focus on threatened Senate seats, really, they could be better spending their money on behalf of Elizabeth Dole, Roger Wicker, Norm Coleman, and Saxby Chambliss than spending in Montana. This doesn't mean that they have to give up on the presidential race and focus exclusively on the Senate -- I still believe that would be dumb because a presidential landslide would likely wash away these down-ballot names anyway -- but that they can spread their remaining dollars around. They could do both. The worst they can do is waste their money on pointless escapades like protecting Montana.

This move reminds me a lot of the NRSC's behavior in the 2006 cycle, when Dole's NRSC spent big in places like New Jersey, only to end up losing Senate seats in Montana and Virginia by one point each.

It is a question about wisely allocating resources, and for whatever reason -- I am guessing a lack of calm under intense pressure -- the national Republican leadership simply does a poor job of this.