The Wisdom of Obama's 50-State Strategy, Revisted

One of the top issues on our post-election list is another appraisal of Obama's 50-state campaign strategy. For those who have been reading T2L for a while might remember, this was a subject we spent a good of time on earlier in the summer, to the tune of four posts here, here, here, and here. At the time, I was a strong supporter of the strategy, and concluded with this view:

Given the national environment and his own financial advantages, Obama probably has a special, once-in-a-generation-if-not-more opportunity to win and also carry into office with him many Democratic candidates from dark red states.

At this late stage in the campaign, can anyone question the wisdom of Obama's ambitious strategy? If so, please consider the following polling data (from polls conducted over the last two weeks) in Georgia, Indiana, and North Carolina.

Georgia
51-45 McCain (Strategic Vision, 10/20-10-22)
51-46 McCain (Rasmussen, 10/22)
48-47 Obama (Insider Advantage, 10/23)
49-43 McCain (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/22-10/23)
48-47 McCain (Insider Advantage, 10/27)
52-47 McCain (CNN/Time, 10/23-10/28)
Average: McCain 49.7, Obama 46

Indiana
48-46 Obama (PPP, 10/18-10/19)
51-41 Obama (Big Ten Battleground, 10/19-10/22)
49-45 Obama (SUSA, 10/21-10/22)
47-45 McCain (Howry-Gauge, 10/23-10/24)
48-47 Obama (R2K, 10/23-10/25)
50-44 McCain (Reuters/Zogby, 10/23-10/26)
47-47 Tied (R2K, 10/24-10/28)
46-45 Obama (Indy Star/Selzer, 10/26-10/28)
49-46 McCain (Rasmussen, 10/28-10/29)
47-47 Tied (SUSA, 10/27-10/30)
Average: Obama 47.1, McCain 46.4

North Carolina
51-47 Obama (CNN/Time, 10/19-10/21)
48-46 Obama (WSOC-TV, 10/20-10/21)
50-48 McCain (Rasmussen, 10/23)
47-47 Tied (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/22-10/24)
48-46 Obama (AP/GfK, 10/22-10/26)
50-46 Obama (Reuters/Zogby, 10/23-10/26)
49-48 Obama (PPP, 10/25-10/26)
49-48 McCain (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/26)
47-43 Obama (National Journal/FD, 10/23-10/27)
52-46 Obama (CNN/Time, 10/23-10/28)
47-46 Obama (Civitas, 10/27-10/29)
50-48 Obama (Rasmussen, 10/29)
48-48 Tied (Politico/Insider Advantage, 10/29)
Average: Obama 48.7, McCain 46.9

So, over the last two weeks and a heckuva lot of polling we find Obama behind a few points in Georgia, and clinging to small leads in Indiana and North Carolina. To give you some context for what this collective closeness means, here are three more sets of numbers.

Georgia
George Bush 58
John Kerry 41

Indiana
George Bush 60
John Kerry 39

North Carolina
George Bush 56
John Kerry 44

Democratic losses of 17, 21, and 12 points just four years. Blow-outs, all.

I deliberately picked these three states because they are states which no one really considered "swing states" this year, but ones where the Obama campaign has invested a lot of resources and man-power. It has paid off handsomely. Obama might not win any of these states, but by focusing on them, he has expanded the map drastically, which helps him because of both the national environment favoring Democrats, and because of the financial and resource advantages he enjoys his opponent. And given these numbers, I think that there is a good chance he will win at least one of these states.

Entering this cycle, it looked as the election would be fought on the same narrow battlefield of Ohio, Florida, Ohio and Florida. I sure thought that way early on. The Obama campaign saw it differently, and because of their keen eye, this election could turn out ot be a n Electoral College rout for the Democratic ticket, and also carry into office some other down-ticket Democrats.

We will return to this issue with a broader analysis once all the smoke clears after Tuesday.