Wicker's Rut

More Mississippi. I'm sorry. Talking about Chris Cilizza's dim view of Ronnie Musgrove's chances next week got me to thinking about the dyanamics of the race, so I wanted to go over some numbers, specifically the favorables of Musgrove, and the incumbent Roger Wicker.

Roger Wicker favorable/unfavorable splits

R2K
December 14: 49/17 (+32)
May 22: 52/25 (+27)
July 24: 51/39 (+12)
September 11: 54/41 (+13)
October 17: 54/42 (+12)

Ronnie Musgrove favorable/unfavorable split

R2K
December 14: 41/28 (+13)
May 22: 46/33 (+13)
July 24: 48/41 (+7)
September 11: 50/43 (+7)
October 17: 52/43 (+9)

Unfortunately, because Rasmussen does a lousy job archiving their stuff (not to mention putting all of their cross-tabs behind a pay-wall), I can't compare the full results throughout the cycle to the R2K findings. To be fair, Rasmussen has awarded higher ratings to Wicker than R2K, but those aren't what interest me here.

Really, I don't want to look at individual numbers so much as trendlines. Wicker has gone from +32 in the baseline poll (taken right after Lott announced his intent to resign, but before he left or Wicker was appointed ot the seat), to +27 six months later, to +12 in late July, to +13 in September, and +12 a week ago. For his part, Musgrove's numbers over the same period were +13/+13/+7/+7/+9

We can glean some important information here. First, both men took a dive in ratings between late May and July. I am guessing this is when the campaign really got nasty, and the negative commercials from Wicker, the NRSC and the DSCC really took to the airwaves. But we can see Wicker got hit a little harder, losing 15 out of 27 aggregate positive points, while Musgrove lost half of his number. Since then, both men's splits have remained stable, with Wicker falling between +12 and +13 over three separate polls in three months, and Musgrove falling within +7 to +9 in each of the trio.

I have little doubt that Wicker is better liked, and has been because first, he is the Republican in a staunchly Republican state, and second, because his and his party's attacks on Musgrove have been very biting and very effective. Yet, for all of those attacks, Musgrove has been able to stay above water enough to keep attracting enough white support. Furthermore, the DSCC's investment of over $5 million in the race has kept Wicker's numbers down enough that he hasn't run away with the thing.

That Wicker's favorable split has been pretty stagnant for three months kind of refutes the thesis that he has righted himself. Keep in mind, Wicker has only been in the Senate for 10 months. Prior to that, he was the congressman for one-fourth of the state. He either needs to be be way above Musgrove in terms of favorability, or he needs to take an axe to the former's governor's numbers. So far, at least according to R2K, neither has fully happened, and that's (in part) why I like Musgrove's chances in 10 days.