New Independent Expenditure Totals

Using the numbers provided by the guys at Swing State Project, I just wanted to re-list all of the House expenditures by the DCCC, the NRCC, and all the other groups which have weighed in in all of the races. Why read the post here instead of SSP? Well, I am going to list the expenditures in order from the districts that have seen the most money so far, on down. (That's not to say you shouldn't check out SSP -- they're the best).

Anyway, these totals are broken down by party and they do include all friendly money (i.e. money spent by Defenders of Wildlife, for example, would be included in listed Democratic totals). To make it easier to digest, I will break them into tens, and give some comments on each bracket.

Note that for many of the races where there has been a tiny amount spent total, that is often not the NRCC or DCCC talking, but usually a group like the Club for Growth or the National Rifle Association. Neither campaign arm would generally waste just two grand in a race total. Races where the spending is exclusively by outside groups are noted with asterisk.

Democratic spending

Top Ten
NM-01: $2.579 M
OH-16: $2.462 M
CO-04: $2.450 M
NH-01: $2.433 M
NC-08: $2.428 M
NV-03: $2.377 M
MN-03: $2.343 M
PA-11: $2.307 M
IL-11: $2.266 M
MI-07: $2.193 M

That the DCCC (and other interests) have spent over $2 million in over ten races is kind of amazing. What's more impressive is that only two of these top ten are currently Democratic seats. I would venture to guess that PA-11 is likeliest to turn to the GOP, and MN-03 right now is indeed looking more and more like a toss-up, as Erik Paulsen has turned out to be a stout GOP challenger. The others should all end up Democratic, one way or the other. In terms of NH-01, Carol Shea-Porter was have really lousy internal polling.

Second Ten
OH-15: $2.175 M
OH-01: $2.124 M
MI-09: $2.108 M
AZ-03: $2.062 M
AZ-01: $2.051 M
PA-03: $2.048 M
IL-10: $2.047 M
MD-01: $1.833 M
NY-26: $1.809 M
WA-08: $1.693 M

Another seven two million dollar races. This entire group is offensive, making 18 of the top 20 races up to this point offensive targets. Pretty aggressive to be sure, and not a surprise given bad this environment has gotten for the GOP. The nearly two million spent in MD-01 (R+10) is remarkable. We'll soon see if the polling was truly that good there, or if this was just a personal mission for Hoyer and Van Hollen. Two questionable ones rise up here: AZ-03 and NY-26. The polling for the former one has been poor, and if the Democrats fail to knock off conservative icon John Shadegg, there will be a bit of room for second-guessing. In terms of NY-26, this one is puzzling with the DCCC spending nearly $500 K there this week. With Jon Powers holding a ballot line next week, Alice Kryzan has her work cut out for her. Maybe internals are great. Finally, WA-08 looks like it has tightened in the last two weeks with spending up here. A big Obama win in Washington might spell the end for Dave Reichert.

Third Ten
VA-11: $1.645 M
NJ-03: $1.531 M
NM-02: $1.517 M
NJ-07: $1.446 M
MO-09: $1.388 M
IN-09: $1.373 M
AK-AL: $1.365 M
TX-22: $1.362 M
AZ-05: $1.360 M
VA-02: $1.355 M

The defenses here. Dems have had to gin up spending in NJ-03 to carry Adler over the finish line, and it looks like NM-02 is going Democratic, which is quite a surprise. Spending in MO-09 stands out, as this seat looked gone not too long ago. The big spending in IN-09, which finally looks safe may be a little too much insurance for Baron Hill. Nick Lampson is finally getting a lot of help, but that Zogby pol showing him down 17 points is not good, and VA-02 looks to have tightened considerably.

Fourth Ten
CA-11: $1.348 M
TX-23: $1.242 M
CT-04: $1.230 M
LA-06: $1.200 M
KY-02: $1.191 M
FL-24: $1.189 M
AL-02: $1.174 M
PA-10: $1.153 M
MN-06: $1.063 M
AL-05: $985 K

Half of these are on defense. I would expect MN-06 to get some more love. I think the DCCC assumes Feeney is absolutely cooked in FL-24, or else we would see more money being spent here. I am kind of surprised Bobby Bright is not getting more love in AL-02 considering how tight that race looks. SUSA polling for KY-02 makes that race look over, but the DCCC may disagree if the continued high spending is any indication.

Fifth Ten
FL-25: $952 K
FL-21: $942 K
NY-29: $942 K
WI-08: $848 K
NE-02: $828 K
CA-04: $817 K
OH-02: $808 K
VA-05: $645 K
IN-03: $614 K
WY-AL: $561 K

I am going to call this tier the "risers tier" because I think that in the next few days, several of these races will see a huge infusion of cash, which is already starting. The Florida seats will get a lot more -- watch, ditto NY-29 and hopefully CA-04, which has been showing a narrow Dem advantage in a R+11 seat. IN-03 and WY-AL are two dark red districts, but spending has just moved here, and I bet we haven't seen the last of it. If the DCCC is smart, it will heavily increase spending in Wyoming to bring that one home. Finally, to be honest, I still think the spending in Nebraska is a waste, but we will soon see. VA-05? That's interesting right there.

Sixth Ten
WV-02: $524 K
ID-01: $513 K
MO-06: $469 K
FL-16: $431 K
AZ-08: $419 K
KS-02: $299 K
FL-08: $299 K
MS-01: $248 K
OR-05: $239 K
NY-25: $167 K

With the exception of FL-08, this may be the "fallers tier." These are races that are other solidifed, or done for the Dems. One race here which Dems would be wise to spend more in is ID-01, which is cheap, and very close. Ditto FL-08, which is not in the bag just yet.

Seventh Ten (actually 13)
SC-01: $72 K
*CT-05: $60 K
*TN-04: $40 K
GA-13: $ 32 K
*GA-08: $31 K
*FL-13: $19 K
*OH-18: $15 K
*FL-18: $3 K
*CA-26: $2 K
*CA-46: $2 K
*NJ-05: $2 K
PA-12: $2 K
*PA-15: $2 K

There has been some talk that David Scott might be in trouble in GA-13 as he is facing a wealthy opponent. We'll see. PA-12 may also be one to watch, where John Murtha has gotten into some trouble for comments calling western Pennsylvanians "racist" and "red-necks." We will see if the longtime congressman is in any trouble. Like Bachmann, his comments may pass before November 4. Finally, SC-01 has gotten a lot of recent national attention (SUSA has the contest at 50-45), but the DCCC is not much in yet with days left.

Republican spending

First Ten
FL-21: $1.577 M
MI-07: $1.159 M
CO-04: $870 K
OH-01: $844 K
PA-03: $824 K
*CT-04: $793 K
MO-09: $743 K
*WV-02: $718 K
NH-01: $655 K
*MI-09: $650 K

These are the NRCC's top priorities, and they are mostly unchanged from our last analysis. Only NH-01 is an offensive target, and the NRCC is content to let outside groups hold the fort in three others here.

Second Ten
WI-08: $594 K
MO-06: $583 K
OH-15: $577 K
WA-08: $577 K
PA-11: $556 K
LA-06: $552 K
NE-02: $522 K
MN-03: $518 K
MD-01: $516 K
*NM-01: $475 K

So many races, so little money to spread around. Looking at the map in front of them, Tom Cole and the NRCC are doing what they can with limited resources-very limited resources that sit in the face of enormous Democratic bucks in all of these districts. Though clearly, the GOP is nervous about NE-02 and WA-08, but bullish on MN-03 and OH-15.

Third Ten
NJ-03: $437 K
AL-02: $364 K
WY-AL: $361 K
AL-05: $355 K
NY-29: $355 K
OH-02: $349 K
IN-03: $324 K
NJ-07: $303 K
VA-02: $302 K
TX-22: $288 K

Call this the "losers bracket." Not because these seats will be lost, but because many of them are occupied by weak candidates or incumbents who the NRCC should not have to save: Cynthia Lummis in WY-AL, Jean Schmidt in OH-02, Mark Souder in IN-03, Randy Kuhl in NY-29, and Thelma Drake in VA-02. The $361 K in Wyoming is salient. Frankly, I am shocked they are trying to bail out Cynthia Lummis. The GOP believes it can win NJ-03, it just not have the money to match the Dems there. A little more might have saved it and the Seventh District.

Third Ten
KY-02: $273 K
ID-01: $258 K
NV-03: $239 K
*KS-02: $204 K
*IL-10: $186 K
*FL-24: $183 K
CA-11: $135 K
*CT-02: $105 K
*AZ-03: $81 K
*GA-06: $50 K

Fourth Ten (actually 14)
*NC-08: $29 K
*MN-06: $17 K
*FL-13: $15 K
*AZ-01: $14 K
*IA-02: $13 K
*AZ-05: $12 K
*FL-16: $11 K
*PA-10: $10 K
*NV-02: $7 K
*AZ-08: $6 K
*IN-09: $5 K
*CA-04: $5 K
*FL-25: $3 K
*NJ-05: $2 K

These are all tiny expenditures, and all by outside groups, so they don't say much of anything about the races specifically or the map in general.