An Alaska Scenario: Sarah for Senate?

Bear with me. I was walking today, and had a theory about the Ted Stevens Alaska Senate race I wanted to post.

First, Rasmussen is out with the first post-verdict poll on the race, and it shows some movement towards Democrat Mark Begich, but not an overwhelming amount:

Mark Begich 52 (48)
Ted Stevens 44 (49)

Stevens dropped five points from the last Rasmussen poll three weeks ago while the Anchorage mayor rose three points. In a result that should not surprise any one with some familiarity in this race and in Ted Stevens, the longtime Senator is still at 44 percent. Do not be surprised if and when he finishes in the high 40s next Tuesday (or should I say Wednesday, when we will be seeing the results trickle in from the Last Frontier).

Anyway, it is looking likely that Stevens will be ousted from office. And several of his Republican colleagues, many of whom are not coincidentally locked in tight re-election fights themselves, have called for Stevens to go. Senator Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is one of those Senators, and he noted that if Stevens does not go willingly, he would absolutely be expelled from the Senate.

But is Stevens' exit from the Senate really what Republicans want? I think that the answer is yes and no. Yes, Senate Republicans facing tough races right now would like nothing more than to not have to be connected to the just-convicted Stevens. Most Senators would also like to avoid a protracted expulsion proceeding for a member who has been in the body since 1968. It would be rough, unpleasant business. Therefore, it would be easiest for most of them if Stevens resigned, either today, after he loses (though at that point, he would be leaving on January 3, 2009 anyway, making the matter likely moot), or if he wins, after November 4.

At the same time, however, there are good reasons why many Republicans may be pulling for Stevens to win this thing. Consider the following.

Under Alaska state law, if there is a Senate vacancy, either because of death, resignation, or whatever, the governor cannot appoint a Senator to fill out of the rest of the term or until the next election can be held. Rather, a special election is required. So, should Stevens somehow win next week -- and as you know, I do not completely discount that possibility and think that it could still happen given many Alaskans' diehard love for Stevens -- and then resign, there would be a special election in early 2009 to fill his seat.

Who do you think many Republicans would like to run for that seat? Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell? Try again. Soon-to-ousted Congressman Don Young? Wrong.

Sarah Palin.

After John McCain's likely loss next Tuesday, Palin will head back to Alaska to resume her work as governor and finish out her first term which runs until January 2011. While Palin will try her darndest to remain a relevant national figure, doing so from Alaska will be trickier than if she were in the lower 48 in some capacity. Therefore, what do you think would be more attractive to Palin and her legions of conservative followers: continuing as governor in Juneau, or becoming a national figure in Washington, DC? In the Senate, Palin could overnight become a political figure with much great standing and credibility, and build on her time there until 2012.

Of course, several things would need to happen before this scenario could become reality. First, McCain needs to lose. I think that is most likely of all. Next, Stevens would need to find a way to win. This is looking very, very hard given his conviction, but again, it is not impossible; heck, the dude is polling 44 percent days after being convicted on seven federal corruption counts. Still, it would be the hardest step. Finally, if he is re-elected, he would need to convinced to resign from the Senate, the body he has sat in for the last 40 years.

Given Stevens' stubbornness and his refusal to listen to anyone -- this is the man who ran for re-election after his house was raided by the FBI, and refused to leave the primary after he was indicted -- this too would be a tough step, but Stevens might not have any choice. If he is facing sure expulsion, and already, numerous GOP Senators have said he must resign, he might have no choice but to resign or be removed and tarnished even more. This might be an offer even Ted Stevens cannot refuse. Many of Stevens' colleagues have been his friend for years, but I have little doubt that they would not hesitate to throw him over the side to get Palin into the Senate. And yes, Palin would very likely win that special election: this is still Alaska, and the Democratic bench there is non-existent. (I concede that it would be an interesting fight if the Democrats could recruit someone half decent and then help fund his/her campaign against Palin).

And really, given the options, who doesn't think that the national Republican Party would not be dreaming of replacing Stevens with Palin? It would be the ultimate trade-off for the down-and-out GOP come post-election time. Sarah Palin in the Senate would become the biggest star in the place, and her elevation would basically anoint her the 2012 frontrunner, if only for the time being.

I know this is all far-fetched right now, but if Stevens does win on Tuesday, keep all this in mind.