Analyzing House Independent Expenditures,Part II

In this post we will do the other half of the House races where the DCCC has made independent expenditures so far this cycle, in order of the races where the most money has been spent, going on down.

NJ-03 (D+3). DCCC total spending: $636 K, including $247 K in the last week. This is another strange Jersey district, and one I have been following for a long time. By all accounts, this race should not even be close. While longtime Rep. Jim Saxton was unbeatable, his retirement opened the door here big-time for Democrats. The district already leans Democratic, and the Democratic nominee, state Sen. John Adler was recruited early and was very highly-touted. Adler has outraised his opponent, Chris Myers, by enormous margins. Still, all polling -- both public and private -- has shown a very close race, with several polls showing a narrow Republican lead. What gives? the district has several unique characteristics which hurt Adler. The district is made up mostly of conservative Ocean County, moderate Burlington County, and a slice of very liberal Camden County. Adler is from that Camden County part of the district, and while he will win that part with ease, his association with liberal Camden County is out-putting to many voters in the other two counties, which are hugely unlike Camden, in politics, economy, and social characteristics. Politically, Camden County is run by unsavory political boss George C. Norcross III, whose machine Adler has been aligned with. This hurts Adler in Burlington and Ocean counties. Furthermore, in a state filled with corruption, the state legislator is enormously unpopular, and Myers has been able to attack Adler for being a longtime state senator. These factors are what are accounting for the close race. Being from Burlington County has also likely helped Myers, as he will win Ocean easily, and if he can break even in his county, he is in solid shape. The NRCC sees blood in the water, as they have spent $165 K here, including $94 K last week. While the Philly market is expensive, this is clearly a race they can win. On the flip side, I would expect the DCCC to start spending even more here. While the DCCC would prefer not to spend here, especially with Adler's near 10-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage over Myers, it might not have a choice given the race's closeness. Adler would be a strong and liberal congressman, so the DCCC will likely have to increase spending to ensure his victory. From the start I have been telling people that this district is not the slam-dunk it looked like early given the area's unique political factors. Still, with Adler's money advantage, the DCCC weighing in, and the fact that Obama should win big here should be enough to get Adler over the finish line. Outlook: A complete toss-up, but one which Adler could very well lose.

VA-11 (R+1). DCCC total spending: $631 K, including $207 K in the last week. When Rep. Tom Davis announced his retirement from this northern Virginia seat, it immediately landed at the top of the DCCC's target list. The Democrats were probably gleeful that Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerry Connolly ran and won the Democratic primary. A pro-business moderate, Connelly is very well known in the district and has strong connections to business interests (who, not surprisingly spent over $300 K last week for Connolly). Davis was able to recruit a wealthy self-funder to run to succeed him (the former NRCC chair, Davis shrewdly realized only way the GOP could hold the seat with the NRCC unlikely to spend here was with a self-funder), Keith Fimian. While there has been some talk that the race has tightened, I would be surprised if Connelly did not win big, given his financial advantage, the movement of the district towards the Democratic Party, and Obama's likely big win here. Outlook: A very likely Democratic takeover.

LA-06 (R+7). DCCC total spending: $604 K total, including $348 K in the last week. This is the district Democrats plucked from Republicans in a special election earlier this year after longtime GOP Rep. Richard Baker resigned from Congress to become a lobbyist. A conservative state rep, Don Cazayoux was a strong recruit for Democrats, but admittedly he won more based on the many weaknesses of the GOP nominee, Woody Jenkins, a perennial candidate and loser in Louisiana politics. Cazayoux squeezed out a 49-46 win in the special, which was a bit underwhelming and made him appear vulnerable for November. Things got worse for Cazayoux when liberal Democrat state Rep. Michael Jackson, a young black leader whom Cazayoux defeated in the special election primary, announced he was running as an independent in the November general election mostly out of anger at the DCCC for backing Cazayoux in the primary. Jackson's crybaby move was very lamentable for Democrats -- and silly too, considering that only a social moderate like Cazayoux could have won the seat in the first place -- and many, including this author, wrote off the seat. The thinking was that the Republicans would nominate a candidate with less baggage than Jenkins, and that Jackson would eat into the key black voting base out of Baton Rogue which Cazayoux would need to win overwhelmingly in order to win in this conservative district. That could all still happen, as the GOP did recruit a well-known state senator to run against Cazayoux, but Democratic polling over the last month has given Cazayoux wide leads of 48-32 and 46-29. There is no public polling of this contest. If the Democratic polling is accurate, the biggest takeaway is that Jackson is getting very little support in Baton Rogue or anywhere else (which incidentally makes sense since Jackson has raised basically no money). The only way for Cazayoux to win is if this continues. The NRCC has spent $91 K so far this cycle, all in the last week, so clearly the GOP thinks it can take the seat back, but it is not willing to invest the same resources as have been poured into OH-01, MI-07 and PA-03. Democratic spending here to protect Cazayoux has not been enormous in the same way as in NH-01, which should bode well for how the party views the freshman's strength. If Democratic spending shows a big uptick, that will demonstrate that the party is skittish. As it stands, Cazayoux has also helped himself by taking a prominent leadership role in the response to the recent hurricane activity in the region. Outlook: Toss-up, but probably leaning slightly towards remaining Democratic.

KY-02 (R+13). DCCC total spending: $576 K, including $355 K in the last week. This is yet another race that should be no contest at all. The Second District is the seat of retiring Rep. Ron Lewis, a Christian conservative first elected in 1994 after William Natcher, the very longtime congressman had died. While this seat was in Democratic hands for decades before 1994, it is the reddest district in Kentucky, and one of the most conservative in the whole South. The Democratic nominee, state Sen. David Boswell, is a mixed bag. On the one hand, he has the conservative profile needed to appeal to the district. Additionally, he is very well known in the area from his time as a state senator, and before that as state Agriculture Commissioner. However, on the other hand, Boswell is a notoriously awful fundraiser, and has been very heavily outraised by his opponent, fellow state Sen. Brett Guthrie. The little polling in this race has gone both ways: a late-June SUSA poll gave Boswell a 47-44 edge, and a late-August Democratic poll found Boswell ahead 41-33. However, SUSA's late-September version gave Gurthrie a 49-43 advantage. Given the heavy Democratic spending so far, the race is likely still tight, and the NRCC will never wade in here. Outlook: This is a toss-up, and shockingly, given that he is so well-known in the district, Boswell may be positioned to win, though Obama's weak performance here will hurt the Boz.

AL-02 (R+13). DCCC total spending: $549 K, including $277 K in the last week. See the first line of KY-02 above. This is the district of retiring GOP Rep. Terry Everett, who has occupied this southeastern Alabama seat for some time. The only reason Democrats have a shot here is because they were able to recruit longtime Montgomery mayor Bobby Bright to run under their banner (and the GOP too recruited him to run as a Republican; the mayoralty is nonpartisan). Bright is very well known in this district which surrounds Montgomergy, from his time as mayor and because he was raised in the rural region in the southern part of the district known as the Wiregrass. Bright has very conservative views and policy positions, positions which fit well with an Alabama congressional seat in the heart of Bible country. Compounding matters for the GOP is that the party endured a nasty primary with a run-off that was closely won by eventual winner state Rep. Jay Love. Love is equally conservative, and has a personal fortune he has been relying on. Love has been attacking Bright nonstop for taking money from the DCCC and leaders like Nancy Pelosi, however it is unclear how much these attacks have stuck considering Bright's known conservative positions and his own high profile in the district. This is a race the NRCC has spent in early, dropping $96 K total so far, including $84 K in the last week. The GOP wants to hold this seat most likely because it realizes that Bright could hold the district for a while: he is no namby-pamby liberal. Bright's conservatism and his profile both in Montgomery and in the Wiregrass make him the best possible nominee for the Democrats, and probably the only one who could even make this race close. The DCCC's spending is good so far, and I would expect it to increase, for if Bright loses, no Democrat will contend here for at least a generation. Polling has been sporadic, with Bright polls showing him up and Love polls showing him ahead. An SUSA poll a couple months back gave Love a wide lead, but it heavily undersampled blacks who make up nearly 30 percent of the district. A Bright poll from last week gave him a 46-45 lead, but also showed much higher approval ratings for him than for Love, who is still suffering from his negative campaigning in the primary and in the general. The poll seems believable, and it is from Anzalone, a good firm that was right on the money in its read of the MS-01 special election back in April and May. This is a race to watch on election night, and a Bright win would portend horribly for Republicans. Heavy black turnout for Obama will likely benefit Bright greatly as well. In the end, though, even if Love is flawed and Bright is fantastic, the district is so Republican that Love could still win in a bad environment. Outlook: A toss-up, but Bright is as well-positioned as any Democrat to win here.

WA-08 (D+2). DCCC total spent: $525 K, including $506 K in the last week. The race here this year is a rematch of the 2006 contest which the incumbent, GOP Rep. Dave Reichert narrowly won. While this district leans left, Reichert is popular and well known from his time as the county sheriff who helped catch the notorious Green River serial killer. Darcy Burner, the Democratic nominee, has done well for herself, but recent polling has her down high single digits. The DCCC's recent burst of funds here might indicate that the DCCC was ready to engage here finally. Burner will likely need more help to overcome Reichert, though Obama's coattails in Washington state and the district will benefit her. An Obama landslide could put her over the top. Outlook: Leaning towards a hold for the Republicans.

FL-21 (R+6). DCCC total spent: $519 K, all of which was just dropped this week. Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart has lived a charmed political life. In office for almost two decades, he has never faced a tough race in his Miami district, and he has long-enjoyed political celebrity status in the Cuban community for his hardline political positions regarding the island. This year, Democrats were able recruit a strong challenger for Diaz-Balart in former Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez, a well-known a controversial South Florida figure. Martinez is very popular around the district, but he has an explosive personality, and faced several corruption trials in the 1990s, having a conviction tossed out on appeal. His retrial resulted in a hung jury. The two men loathe each other, and Martinez is running on issues besides the Cuban embargo, which generally dominates political campaigns in Miami. While Diaz-Balart continues to do well among older Cubans, Martinez has made inroads with the growing non-Cuban Hispanic community in the district, as well as with young people and whites. Two polls over the summer found the race very tight, with one in late-August showing Martinez up 48-46 (SUSA). The latest poll, from Telemundo found Diaz-Balart up 48-43 two weeks ago. Up to this point, the DCCC has only waded into one of the five or so tight Florida races -- in the Twenty-fourth District -- so this money-drop announced in the last day might be a sign that the party is beginning to throw its weight around in Miami. While Rep. Illeana Ros-Lehtinen is safe in FL-18, Lincoln's younger brother congressman Mario Diaz-Balart is facing a very hard challenge himself in FL-25. The DCCC has yet to spend there as of yet. This is not only a close race, but a very important one politically as it represents the Democrats' best ever chance to make inroads in the Cuban community. I would expect a lot more Democratic spending here. Outlook: As it stands, this race is leaning towards a GOP retention, but it is tight, and DCCC money could have a big impact here.

AL-05 (R+6). DCCC total spent: $491 K, including $200 K spent in the last week. This is the seat of one of the very retiring Democrats. Rep. Bud Cramer's retirement certainly came as a big surprise in Washington, and there were initial fears that this red district would flip. However, continuing its litany of recruiting failures, the GOP failed to get a strong nominee into the race, and ended up nominating the same fringe businessman who lost to Cramer over ten years ago. Democrats were able to nominate a well known state senator. While a district this Republican can never be taken for granted by Democrats, they are well positioned to hold it with their nominee. Judging by their spending, the DCCC is not taking any chances. For its part, the NRCC has dropped $410 K here total, including $119 K in the last week. The GOP has also been attacking the Dem nominee, a doctor, of mistreating cancer patients and not taking a hard enough line against Islamic terrorists. The district falls in northern Alabama, and includes Huntsville, but it is not nearly as conservative as the the Second District. Outlook: Leaning towards remaining in Democratic hands.

IL-10 (D+4). DCCC total spending: $463 K, including $144 K in the last week. Rep. Mark Kirk is in big trouble. Only two other GOP congressmen represent more liberal districts, but neither of them happen be in districts just north of Chicago in the same election where Barack Obama will be on the top of the ticket. For his part, Kirk has been one of the GOP's very best fundraisers, but his opponent, Dan Seals, has also raised a lot of money. Kirk will need every cent, because there is no way the NRCC will drop money in a Chicago area district this year. Two public polls released in the last couple of weeks have given different results: R2K gave Kirk a 44-38 lead, which SUSA found Seals ahead by 52-44. DCCC spending here has not been that high, probably because of Seals strong fundraising, but also because the DCCC is likely content to let Obama's local organization and his top-of-the-ballot strength in his homestate win this race for the Democrats. Kirk beat Seals by a surprisingly close 53-47 in 2006, and if he can survive this year, he deserves a medal. Outlook: Leaning strongly towards flipping Democratic.

CO-04 (R+9). DCCC total spending: $441 K, including 404 K in the last week. The current rep in this eastern Colorado district, Marilyn Musgrave, has never been terribly popular. She has had several close races, and won in 2006 with only 46 percent of the vote. Musgrave, a strong social conservative, has rankled many of her constituents in the past by leading the fight to amend the Constitution to ban gay marriage while ignoring basically all other issues. This cycle, Democrats recruited Betsy Markey, a former district director to U.S. Senator Ken Salazar to challenge Musgrave. Recent polling of this contest, both public and private, has been terrible for Musgrave. Up to now, though, the DCCC has not dumped money here, not because this race isn't a top priority -- it is -- but because the Democrats have been content to let other groups take down Musgrave. So far, the Defenders of Wildlife, a liberal environmental group, has spent $917 K to defeat Musgrave, and Emily's List has dropped in another $82 K against the incumbent. However, recent reports that Markey was running low on funds may explain why the DCCC suddenly spent over $400,000 on this contest. With the DCCC now engaged, and Obama looking to perform strongly in the Colorado (though probably not as well in the district), Musgrave is likely finished. Outlook: Leaning towards a Democratic pick-up.

FL-16 (R+2). DCCC total spending: $431 K, including $97 K in the last week. We have already posted our general thoughts on what a world-class dirtbag Rep. Tim Mahoney is. In terms of this seat going forward, a few things are clear. First, the DCCC will not spend another red cent on this race. Mahoney was already personally unpopular with most Democratic members of Congress, but given that the district leans slightly Republican, the DCCC spent here to save the seat for its own interest. Given Mahoney's problems -- and today, stories of a second affair which occurred which the first one was going on have surfaced -- the DCCC will want no further connection to the tainted Democrat. Best to cut bait now, which is all the easier because Mahoney is such a bad guy. Second, even though the NRCC has not spent here yet, if there is ever going to be a race they play offense on, this is it. Even with small funds, this seat should be a gimme for them now. Mahoney won 50-48 in 2006 with Mark Foley's name still on the ballot, so we all know that Mahoney is kind of an accidental congressman and that the district might be a bit more conservative than its PVI may indicate. Third, even with all of these problems, Mahoney still could win. Stranger things have happened in politics: Ted Stevens is currently tied in his race, and has a good chance of winning in three weeks if he is acquitted in his corruption trial. Early voting in Florida has already begun, and the GOP is still cash-strapped. It is up to the GOP to get this out there (which they have with new commercials), and if they don't, they don't deserve to win. Outlook: Leaning to a Republican pick-up.

MO-06 (R+5). DCCC total spending: $411 K, including $384 Kin the last week. The Democratic candidate, former Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes, was strongly pursued by the DCCC in past, and came highly-touted. The incumbent, Rep. Sam Barnes has run a very nasty campaign, and has tried hard to keep the focus on social and sexually issues, and away from the economy. All public polling has given Graves the lead, and Barnes has seemingly been unable to get any momentum. Admittedly, though, I have not followed this race very closely because I have never felt the Democrats would win it. We will see. Outlook: Leaning towards a GOP hold.

TX-23 (R+4). DCCC total spending: $400 K, including $216 K in the last week. This seat was won in a big upset by Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, who was making a push to return to Congress after being ousted in a 2004 primary in the 28th District by current Rep. Henry Cuellar. In the November '06 election, Rodriguez finished well behind GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla, but Bonilla ended up with 49 percent, just shy of the majority needed to avoid a run-off. In the run-off, which Democrats spent heavily in, Rodriguez won easily. This cycle, the preferred Republican candidate did not make it to the general contest, and Rodriguez is favored, which is why the spending so far by the DCCC is noteworthy. I would guess the Democrats just wants to solidify this district, and will not be spending much else. After all, this is a R+4 district we are talking about. The realtors PAC has spent $594 K on behalf of Rodriguez. Outlook: Likely Democratic hold.

TX-22 (R+16). DCCC total spending: $383 K, but none in the last week. I find the spending, or lack thereof in this race, more puzzling than in any other contest. The DCCC's lack of spending is extremely surprising. Outside of Tim Mahoney, and even that is questionable, Rep. Nick Lampson is the most threatened Democratic incumbent in all of Congress. Lampson won this seat in 2006 only after Tom DeLay resigned for Congress following his Texas state indictment, and he only beat a write-in candidate by ten percent. Lampson is a popular politician, but this is an extremely Republican district, and one Republicans expect to win (though, also surprisingly, the NRCC has not spent here yet). The GOP got its preferred candidate out of the primary, Peter Olson, a former chief of staff to Senator John Cornyn, but since there has been zero polling released here of any kind, it is tough to say what the state of the race is right now. A lot of people have written off Lampson completely, though he is a survivor and well-liked. A big issue is whether voters in the district are willing to vote in a Democrat in a presidential year. Lampson obviously did not tell the DCCC to stay out, since the organization has already dropped nearly $400,000 here. I have no idea why the spending here has not been greater. Outlook: Toss-up, but my personal opinion is that Lampson will survive.

WI-08 (D+0). DCCC total spending: $358 K, including $203 K in the last week. Rep. Steve Kagan edged out John Gard here by just 51-49 in 2006, and this race represents a rematch. The NRCC has so far dumped $305 K into this race, including $169 K in the last week. The GOP must like it chances of ousting the first-termer if it is investing its meager resources here. An SUSA poll from last week gave Kagan a 54-43 lead, so it still appears to be leaning blue, but we should monitor future GOP spending. Outlook: Leaning towards a Democratic retention.

MO-09 (R+7). DCCC total spending: $328 K, including $236 K in the last week. This seat in northeast Missouri opened up when Rep. Kenny Hulshof retired in order to run for governor. While the seat is decidedly Republican, it has been viewed by some observers as a district that could flip back to the Democrats after the popular Hulshof left office. In the Democratic primary, state Rep. Judy Baker beat moderate former State House Speaker Steve Gaw who many viewed as the best candidate to win the race. For a while after, therefore, Baker got very little attention because she has been perceived as too liberal to win the district. The only public polling has had Baker down large single digits: an early September SUSA had Baker down 50-38, and a mid-September R2K had the race 49-40. A week-old DCCC poll actually gave Baker a 40-36 lead. While I find it hard to believe that Baker is ahead now, the DCCC's sudden slight uptick in spending on her behalf is a good sign. This is a district I have long had my eye on, but one I discounted once Baker won the primary. MO-09 is one to watch on election night. Outlook: Leaning towards a GOP hold, but one to watch closely.

AZ-08 (R+1). DCCC total spending: $318 K, including $115 K in the last week. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords won this seat in 2006 after popular moderate GOPer Jim Kolbe retired, and she appears well-positioned to hold the swing seat. The GOP recruited a strong nominee in State Sen. President Tim Bee to oppose Giffords, but she remains popular and the NRCC has obviously told Bee and others that they are on their own. Light Democratic spending so far seems to indicate that Dems are not as worried here as they are in more conservative AZ-05. Outlook: Leaning strongly towards staying in Democratic hands.

CA-11 (R+3). DCCC total spending: $256 K, including $62 K in the last week. Republicans were expected to put up a strong challenge to retake this GOP-leaning district which was lost in 2006. Initially, many Democrats put this seat at the top of their most-endangered incumbents list. How things change. While there has been no released polling here, the lack of Democratic spending seems to suggest that the party is not worried about losing the seat anymore. It is worth pointing out that the realtor's PAC has spent $721 K on behalf of the Democratic incumbent, including $258 K in the last week. I guess the DCCC is content to let NARPAC protect the seat. Outlook: Likely Democratic hold.

VA-02 (R+6). DCCC total spending: $254 K, all of it in the last week. GOP Rep. Thelma Drake survived a surprisingly close race in 2006 after the DCCC did not really weigh-in in her southern Virginia military-based district. This is a very conservative district, and Drake is again facing an under-funded opponent. So far, in the face of some polls showing Drake ahead, the DCCC has not yet spent much here. One wild card is the presidential contest, where Obama is pulling away across Virginia. A huge Democratic statewide win at the top of the ticket could endanger Drake. Outlook: Leaning towards GOP retention.

NY-29 (R+5). DCCC total spending: $169 K, including $160 K in the last week. Sitting in western New York, this is, at least according to the PVI, the Empire State's most conservative district. GOP Rep. Randy Kuhl won by 52-48 over Eric Massa in 2006, and he is facing a rematch this year. This race was totally un-polled until an explosion of polls last week. R2K found Massa ahead 49-42, and SUSA put the challenger up 51-44. For their part, the Democrats released a poll showing Massa in the lead by 47-42. This was always a district that looked to be close, but if these polls are accurate, Kuhl is behind and in huge trouble, especially with Obama likely to slaughter McCain across New York and likely do well here too. The DCCC had spent only $9,000 before last week, likely holding its fire. These polls gave the Democrats an impetus to jump into action. Expect heavy DCCC spending to continue here up to November 4. Outlook: Leaning towards a Democratic pick-up.

IN-03 (R+16). DCCC total spending: $151 K, all this week. We discussed this race in a post last night, so we won't go over the same ground. Needless to say that this is an extremely Republican district that now appears winnable for Democrats because Rep. Mark Souder has not done a good job shoring up himself and campaigning strongly enough in a rough environment. Souder won by just 54-46 in 2006, and the DCCC may see some extra vulnerability here. Yesterday, the DCCC announced it would buy $487,000 worth of ads for the Democratic nominee, Mike Montagano, who recently released a poll showing him down just 44-39 to the incumbent. The DCCC must have bought the results, because this is a big commitment in a district George Bush once got close to 70 percent in. Outlook: Still a likely Republican hold, but with the polls closing at 6 PM on November 4, this is a race to watch. A loss would be likely foreshadow a nationwide Republican bloodbath.

NY-25 (D+3). DCCC total spending: $145 K. When GOP Rep. James Walsh barely survived in 2006, he saw the writing on the wall and retired. With this Democratic seat now open, the GOP never put up a fight, and I would expect the $145,000 to be the last money the DCCC puts here. Outlook: Near-certain Democratic pick-up.

NE-02 (R+9). DCCC total spending: $139 K, all in the last week. We talked a little about this race in a post last night. This district is based around Omaha, and it is the most "liberal" in red Nebraska. Congressman Lee Terry has betrayed a little bit of concern about his seat, as he is now mailing out ads urging Nebraskans to vote Obama and Terry. This is in response to the Obama campaign's push to win the Second District's electoral vote (Nebraska awards one electoral vote to the winner of each of its three districts, plus two to the winner of the state). The only public poll, from R2K last week, found Terry up 49-39, a big margin, but small given the conservatism of the district. The DCCC's spending here is definitely a reach, so I wonder if it will continue. I would be very surprised if Terry lost here. Outlook: Likely to remain in Republican hands.

MS-01 (R+10). DCCC total spending: $91 K, including $74 K in the last week. Oh, how far we have come! At the start of the year, just about no one outside of Booneville was talking up this open seat as winnable, but after Travis Childers scored a stunning and wide 54-46 win in the special general run-off in May, things changed fast. Childers is now basically safe, and the Democrats are so confident, they are not even bothering here. Similarly, the NRCC won't drop a penny here: if their repeat nominee, Southaven mayor Greg Davis, could only get 46 percent in the special election (incidentally, he also got 46 percent in the first round of general election voting, while Childers fell just shy of a majority at 49.3 percent, demonstrating a total lack of popular movement for him in this red district), what would the point be of dropping money on his behalf now? Childer is in solid shape, and after this year, barring a scandal or unforeseen development, he should be untouchable for as long as he holds the set. Heck, he fits the profile of a strong Senate nominee come 2014 when Sen. Thad Cochran will amost certainly retire. Outlook: Likely Democratic hold in this very conservative district.

ID-01 (R+19). DCCC total spending: $30 K, including $18 K in the last week. This will be a contest to follow somewhat in the final weeks. This district covers western Idaho, and as you can imagine, it is one of the most conservative districts in the entire country. Like a lot of other threatened extreme districts, the only reason it is in play is because the incumbent, GOP Rep. Bill Sali, is so odious. An ultra conservative, Sali is viewed as a fringe figure even by Republicans, and his prickly stlye has made him many enemies among both Democrats and staunch Idaho GOPers in his state. For example, he is pretty much detested by both his predecessor, current Gov. Butch Otter, and by his fellow Idaho Rep. Mike Simpson (ID-02). Sali has made seemingly dozens of missteps, put his foot in his mouth with countless foolish statements, and he has fundraised very poorly. He won in 2006 by only 50-45, and it looks like it will be close again here, even though congressional races should never be close in Idaho. The Democrats have put up Walt Minnick, a wealthy conservative businessman and former Republican. Minnick has out-raised Sali and he has run a respectable campaign. Minnick's own polling in September twice gave him a lead, but public polling has shown Sali ahead, though not by the margins an Idaho Republican typically runs up. So far the DCCC has not given this district any attention, but should they begin to drop money here, it would demonstrate either a tightening of the race, or the Dems' interest in making things interesting and trying to steal a seat. For its part, the NRCC has dropped $18 K here, which is amazing in itself. I bet Tom Cole cringed when he had to sign off on that check. If I were the Democrats, I would drop some money here considering how cheap the market is. Outlook: Likely to stay in Republicans' hands, but it will be close.

NH-02 (D+3). DCCC total spending: $23 K. Needless to say, freshman Rep. Paul Hodes is safe. Outlook: Safe Democratic seat.