What's Going on in Minnesota?

For really close political watchers, polls in this year's Senate race in Minnesota have been all over the place. Throughout the cycle, incumbent Senator Norm Coleman has enjoyed leads of varying sizes, with Democratic challenger Al Franken popping out to leads here and there. This week is a perfect example. Rasmussen put Coleman up one point, a DSCC poll had Franken up two, a Quinnipiac poll found Coleman ahead by seven, a Minneapolis Star-Tribune poll put Franken up nine, and a Survey USA result found the incumbent holding a ten point edge.

So what gives? I think there a lot of reasons for these results falling all over the map. First, I think that a lot of voters simply do not know what they're going to do, which explains the good number of undecideds in many of these polls. Minnesota is a Democratic state, but Al Franken is not the most loveable figure for non-hardcore Democrats. He has said, written, and done a lot of crazy, and quite frankly, outrageous things in his pre-political career, and this unsettles a lot of people. Conversely, because Minnesota still leans blue, a lot of people are questioning whether they want to send a Republican Senator back to Washington, particularly one with strong ties to the national party and even President Bush. All of thus uncertainty on the minds of many voters has contributed to the poll results.

Second, the presence of well-known independent Dean Barkley on the November ballot has certainly impacted some polls more than others. Whereas some polls have found Barkley with no pulse, others are giving him as high as 18 percent at the present time. I don't think a lot of pollsters have had a great handle on the Barkley impact, making the results of the races ever-more unpredictable.

Third, I think some of the polls of this race, specifically Survey USA are simply not accurate. For nearly the entire cycle, SUSA has given Coleman wider leads than just about any other pollster. That's all well and good, and it may have been right a few months ago, but I do not believe that their polls of the state are terribly good. For example, this week's poll showing Franken down 10 points is simply not right, in my humble opinion. Sure, SUSA also found the presidential contest essentially tied in the state, so that might explain a lot. But that finding is also likely wrong. I bet that right now Franken has a narrow lead after being down the entire race.

I do not dispute that McCain has been able to stay in it in Minny -- mostly by heavily out-spending Obama there -- but there is a difference between surviving and having a chance to win. I would guess that right now Obama has a nice lead in the state (and other polls have bolstered this view), and will win Minnesota comfortably in the end. Should this happen, it will be an enormous benefit to Franken. In fact, I am willing to predict that if Obama can score a double-digit win in Minnesota, it would be very hard for Coleman to survive. After a very negative and nasty campaign, Coleman's favorables have dropped considerably. If Obama can score a massive statewide win, he would carry Franken over the finish line. This may be no great compliment to Franken's likeability or political skill, but sometimes political success has more to do with luck and timing than skill and strategic brilliance.

Things can change very fast in politics, but if Obama continues to hold his lead, and can score a five-point win on November 4, you will see a lot of Democratic candidates for House and Senate win. Franken will be Exhibit A for this phenomenon.