Introducing T2L's House Rankings

I know I have said several times that I would not post race rankings on the site because they are way too subjective. Well, I've changed my mind. If any dope can put up some totally subjective rankings, then so can this dope! In all seriousness, everyone loves ranking things, myself included, so with the election less than two weeks away I am going to start posting rankings daily updates or changes, as needed.

We will start with the top 64 races on the House side. Why 64 races? Well, I went through all of the races generally considered not entirely safe for either party and went through all 90 or so of them. From those, I crossed off the ones that I simply do not see flipping, even in the case of a national landslide. That left 64.

The races will be ordered from those where the current holding party is most likely to lose the seat, on down. I will also note PVI numbers, as well as if the incumbent is running again, or if the seat is open. I will give a very brief synopsis/explanation of my ranking. They are broken into six fairly subjective tiered categories, whose titles are self-explanatory.

Enjoy!

Tier 1: These are flipping

1. FL-16 (Tim Mahoney (D), R+3). The top spot was a tough call, but given Mahoney's many problems and that they have been well-aired nationally, his pathetic showing to get elected in 2006 (he won 50-48 over Mark Foley's name on the ballot), and the slant of the district, this one is more likely switch sides that any other in America. Welcome to Washington, Congressman Tom Rooney.

2. NY-13 (Open (R), D+1). The Vito seat. The Republican nominee has less than $5,000 in the bank, he's hated by most of the Staten Island GOP establishment (the district is based mostly in SI, as well as in part of Brooklyn), and one of the Island's most prominent Republicans has endorsed the Democrat, Mike McMahon, a moderate city council member. Remember how this seat was seen as safely Republican for decades to come given Vito Fossella's age? Amazing what an incumbent being arrested for DWI and having two families will do for your political career.

3. VA-11 (Open (R), R+1). When Rep. Tom Davis finally decided to retire, this seat was likely going to flip. Gerry Connelly is too well-known and well-funded to be beaten this year, even against a wealthy self-funder. Expect Connelly to win this seat big.

4. NY-25 (Open (R), D+3). Ten-term Rep. James Walsh barely won in 2006 against Dan Maffei (51-49). With Maffei facing a tier four Republican recruit, with more money and a better Democratic year this year than two years ago, the one-time Democratic loser is heading to Washington.

5. AZ-01 (Open (R), R+2). Political lesson #576: When a district's incumbent has been indicted on over 30 federal counts, and his party nominates a hardcore extremist in his place, all in a swing district, that seat is going to flip. It helps that the DCCC has pumped over $1.7 million into this sprawling district.

6. IL-11 (Open (R), R+1). You've got to hand it to Republican candidate Martin Ozinga. After he was the 73th or so GOP choice here, and was expected to be rolled by top Democratic recruit and original red to blue lister, state Sen. Debbie Halvorson, he has hung tough: keeping up in the money race with Halvorson, and successfully bringing down her numbers by tying her to unpopular Gov. Rod Blagojevich. This one tightened for a while, much to the chagrin of national Dems, but with Halvorson righting the ship -- with an assist from the DCCC -- and Obama on the top of the ballot, this seat is going blue. A Survey-USA poll from 10/23 finds the Democrat ahead 50-37.

7. OH-16 (Open (R), R+4). I'm kind of surprised, as I thought this race would be closer. After all, this seat has been GOP Rep. Ralph Regala's hands since the year one of favorite movies "Patton" won Best Picture. But Dem candidate state Sen. John Boccieri has not made any mistakes and has been solid. It helps the DCCC has spent heavily here and the NRCC has already pulled out.

Tier 2: On the precipice of flipping

8. FL-24 (Tom Feeney (R), R+3). I always felt Rep. Tom Feeney would be in trouble here, but I kept waiting for the Democratic nominee, former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas to bust out. After Feeney cut a tv ad apologizing for taking a free 2003 golf trip to Scotland on corrupt lobbyist Jack Abramoff's dime, this one has spiraled out of the incumbent's control. Feeney, while an extreme conservative, is a skilled politician, but he's in deep you-know-what with a Democratic poll showing him down over 20 points. That margin might not be spot-on, but the NRCC has already pulled out of here, and even GOPers are writing the district off. Pretty tough fate considering Feeney drew this district for himself when he was Speaker of the Florida State House.

9. AK-AL (Don Young (R), R+14). We've gone over this one oh, around 600 times. In Congress 35 years, Young's favorables have plummeted back home from his involvement in multiple scandals and other issues. Ethan Berkowitz has run a near-flawless campaign, and remains very popular. Young has been down all year, and the latest numbers have Berkowitz up eight points and over 50 percent. That being said, Do Not Count Young Out. He has pulled out tough races before, and while Berkowitz should win, it will be tough for Alaskans to toss the old tugboat captain over the side. Too many commentators have awarded Democrats the seat without appreciating its unique nature.

10. CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave (R), R+9). Marilyn Musgrave's win percentages: 55 percent in 2002, 51 percent in 2004, and 46 percent in 2006, all against heavily under-funded opponents. People in this rural district are tired of Musgrave's moral crusades (she led the fight to amend the Constitution to ban gay marriage), and while the NRCC has dropped $805,000 here in the last week, paradoxically today there are reports it is pulling out. With the DCCC and liberal groups dropping close to $2 million and counting here, Musgrave, who has already been down in public polls, is facing fourth-and-long.

11. NY-29 (Randy Kuhl (R), R+5). While this is the Empire State's most conservative district, Kuhl is not hugely popular here, and he only won 52-48 over an under-funded Eric Massa in 2006. I always expected this one to be a toss-up, and when the first polling came out showing Kuhl already down...well, that said it all. If Randy keeps making nutty statements, he will make a fairly close loss a blow-out.

12. OH-15 (Open (R), R+1). The only thing keeping this close is the NRCC's spending so far. But the DCCC's spending has been much, much higher, and Mary Jo Kilroy only lost by 1,000 votes against an incumbent in 2006. Come to think of it, if the NRCC pulls out, which is likely, this one shouldn't be close. You could put this 9th or 10th, but I will stick with my initial instinct.

13. NV-03 (Jon Porter (R), D+1). I can't see Porter surviving. His district has seen an explosion of Democratic registrations, and Dems now outnumber GOPers here. Porter won by one percent in 2006, and this year he faces a challenger with statewide name recognition (Dina Titus was the Democratic leader in the state senate, and she ran for governor in 2006, losing 48-44) and more money. When your own internal poll has you in the low 40s, not to mention every public poll, you're screwed. The happiest man in Nevada is Harry Reid, who won't have to deal with Porter in his 2010 race.

14. PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski (D), D+5). The most threatened Democratic incumbent. When a 12-term incumbent is mired in the high 30s and low 40s for months, he should start packing the office boxes. Kanjo has drawn one of the most dynamic GOP challengers in America. The only thing that may save him is that Dems and their groups have dropped over $2.3 million so far, and will likely keep spending to save the old Dem.

15. MI-09 (Joe Knowlenberg (R), R+0). When John McCain pulled out of Michigan, we expressed that it was all but over for old Joe. He simply has no air cover. The first warning signs were apparent two years ago when he won 52-46 over a Dem with zero money. The DCCC has dropped over a million here, and the NRCC recently told Knowlenberg that he is on his own.

16. PA-03 (Phil English (R), R+3). This is a race that came out of nowhere. Few gave Kathy Dahlkemper a shot when she made it out of the primary, but she is moderate, socially conservative, and has a well-known family name in this northwestern PA district. With the polling showing Phil down high single digits and mired in the low 40s, this may be his swan song. On the plus side, the NRCC has made him one of their top saving priorities, and aim to spend handsomely from their near-barren war-chest to rescue him.

17. FL-08 (Ric Keller (R), R+3). Ric Keller is another rep was eventually going to lose if given the right opponent. His recent electoral history provides a cautionary tale: He won 53-46 over a weak Dem in 2006, and he won this year's GOP primary by 53-47 over an opponent with a police record and less than ten grand to his name. While the Democratic nominee, Alan Grayson is a bit strange and thin-skinned, he is a multi-millionaire self-funder and has produced some excellent ads. The registration numbers in the district don't help the incumbent much either as the district now has more Democrats than Republicans for the first time in a while. Keller is sinking fast, and with the district in Orlando, the NRCC might not be able to afford a life preserver for him. Nevertheless, the nastiness of this campaign is fun to watch from afar.

18. IL-10 (Mark Kirk (D), D+4). By all fair indications, Rep. Mark Kirk deserves to keep his job. He fits his district pretty well, and his constituents like him. He has also raised more money than any other Republican in the country. But politics isn't fair, and as Clint Eastwood said at the end of "Unforgiven," "deserve's got nothing to do with it." His district is Democratic and just north of Chicago. If Barack Obama was not on the ballot, Kirk would likely find a way to survive, but Kirk is not that lucky. Polls have shown Kirk ahead, but I just don't see it.

19. MI-07 (Tim Walberg (R), R+2). See Joe Knollenberg at #15. Walberg is screwed given McCain's pull-out. It doesn't help either that he is a strong conservative in a fairly moderate district. As we've written, Walberg is a Club for Growth baby, having knocked off moderate GOP Rep. Joe Schwarz in the 2006 primary. Ironically, Schwarz has endorsed his strong and well-funded opponent Mark Schauer. The only thing that could save Walberg is that the NRCC is dedicated to him, and its $1.1 million spent so far almost equals the DCCC's $1.3 million. Still, he is likely a goner.

Tier 3: Leaning towards the Democrats

20. TX-22 (Nick Lampson (D), R+16). I had to put Lampson somewhere high. My gut says he will survive, but I am also doubtful. Lampson is well-liked by his constituents, but this is such a red district. A big wild card is how much, if at all, the NRCC will play here. For their part, the DCCC has puzzlingly not spent here at all.

21. NC-08 (Robin Hayes (R), R+3). Hayes won by a few hundred votes here in 2006, and he faces a rematch with Larry Kissell. While Kissell has been a poor fundraiser, the DCCC has dropped close to $2 million, and polling has the Republican down.

22. LA-06 (Don Cazayoux (D), R+7). When black state rep and bigtime sore loser Michael Jackson jumped in as an independent, I thought the brand new freshman was toast, especially with the GOP running a non-Woody Jenkins candidate. Cazayoux's polling has him way ahead, and puts Jackson in the single digits. For his part, Jackson has only a few thousands bucks in the bank and has raised zilch. If Jackson ends up in the single digits, Cazayoux wins, if not, this one could be tight.

23. MN-03 (Open (R), R+1). By all accounts, GOP nominee Erik Paulsen, a top recruit, should be the favorite. But the NRCC has abandoned him, Ashwin Madia has fundraised very well. Not to mention, Obama is going to win Minnesota very big. Paulsen's still got a shot, but not a great one.

24. NJ-03 (Open (R), D+3). As we have discussed, by all accounts this one should be in the books, but John Adler's ties to the Camden County Democratic machine, his long tenure in the hated Jersey legislature, and the unique dynamics of the district has slowed him down. Still, given his enormous COH advantage, his opponent's mediocrity, and a likely solid Obama win in the district, it would be very surprising if the Democrats didn't win this one. The DCCC will spend here, and as much as the GOP would like too, it might be too expensive to go on tv.

25. NM-01 (Open (R), D+2). In any other year, strong GOP recruit Darren White, the county sheriff, would win this race. But 2008 is Democratic year, even in this swing district in this swing state. Obama is going to win huge in the 1st, and White was disappointed when the NRCC pulled its $500 K ad buy here. White could still pull it out, but the deck is currently stacked heavily against him.

26. LA-04 (Open (R), R+7). This race has a lot of wild cards. The primary runoffs will be November 4, and the general not until December. Democratic favorite, Paul Carmouche, the longtime DA in the district, will win the blue nod, but he risks alienating black voters by beating his black opponent, Willie Banks. He should be favored in the general given his high name recognition, but the district still leans right, and who knows what could happen in December.

Tier 4: Pure toss-ups

27. FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart (R), R+4). My reasoning for putting this above FL-21, which most commentators rate higher, is simple: nearly every recent poll, while all showing the incumbent ahead, also also have him in the low or mid-40s. That is a bad place for a well-known congressman. Joe Garcia has run a steady campaign, and cuts the right profile. Garcia also has none of the baggage of FL-21 Dem nominee Raul Martinez. He has much less money on hand, so for him to pull this one out, the DCCC needs to spend here, which it is has not really done yet. Interestingly, a Roll Call article notes that GOP strategists view this seat as the more threatened of the pair, while Democrats view Raul Martinez as having a better show to knock off a Diaz-Balart.

28. NJ-07 (Open (R), R+1). Dem nominee Linda Stender only lost by one percent against Rep. Mike Ferguson, and with him retiring, conventional wisdom says she should prevail this year. But the GOP has recruited a moderate and well-liked nominee in state Sen. Leonard Lance. The GOP is making some noise about spending here, but a big Republican investment remains to be seen. Polling has been all over the place, but the GOP can win this one.

29. NM-02 (Open (R), R+6). That this seat is winnable for Democrats is the result of a good national year, and the recruitment of a candidate in Harry Teague who is well known in southern New Mexico. Teague should dominate in large Dora Ana County, and he has the potential to be competitive in ultra-conservative Lea County, where he was once a county commissioner. The only public poll had Teague ahead by four points (47-43), and reports out of the Land of Enchantment are that Teague is holding a narrow lead. This seat has not had a Dem rep in decades, but this is looking more and more like this is the year to break that streak.

30. FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart, R+6). The other heavyweight political fight in Miami this year. The two combatants, longtime Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart and former longtime Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez despise each other. Really, this race is about the rigidness of America's Cuba policy, and it is a class fight between the aristocratic Diaz-Balart, and the political street-fighter Martinez. Both men are loaded, but the NRCC has commited to saving Lincoln, already spending over $600 K on the race, while the DCCC has dropped over $500,000 and will likely spend more. This one is tight.

31. CT-04 (Chris Shays, D+5). Call this Survivor: Connecticut. Shays has survived many tough challenges in his district, and this might be his hardest on yet. He has called this year a coming tsunami for Republicans, and the NRCC is unlikely to lend him a hand. His wealthy opponent, Jim Himes, and the DCCC are going to spend a lot here. Still, I think he might just make it. If he does, he is likely safe for the rest of his career.

32. OH-01 (Steve Chabot, R+1). This one is Survivor: Cincinnati. Steve Chabot seems to just barely win every two years, usually facing staunch opposition. Democrats were frustrated when he beat a top recruit 52-48 two years ago. This year, he has another hard opponent, and the DCCC has even more money to spend. One ace up Chabot's sleeve is that he is one of the NRCC's top friends, probably because the GOP knows it will never get as staunch a conservative again in this swing district. Chabot though, might see his luck run out, as Obama should win the district November 4. Polling has shown Chabot either up or down around 48-46. This is a tight one.

33. WA-08 (Dave Reichert, D+2). East of Seattle, Democrats should take this district, but Reichert is popular and kind of a folk hero. The bigger the Obama win in the district, the more likely he is looking for a new job come November 5.

34. AL-02 (Open (R), R+13). Another one Democrats have no business contending in. They only have a shot because Montgomery mayor and conservative Bobby Bright is so attractive. Bright can do well in Montgomery, as well as in the rural Wiregrass region where he hails from. GOP nominee state Rep. Jay Love has deep pockets, and has been attacking Bright non-stop. He engendered a lot of hurt feelings when he won a narrow primary run-off, and his primary opponent, as well as several other big Republicans in the district have endorsed Bright. Since Love is self-funding, the DCCC needs to spend very big here to win, and they've already spent close to a million. The NRCC is close to matching. This is tight, but one warning sign is that a Bright poll had him up 10 pts not long ago, and Bright's numbers only have him up one now.

35. NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter (D), R+o). That the DCCC has spent nearly $2 million here is very telling. No easy way to put it: Shea-Porter is a weak candidate, and really, her 2006 win was kind of an accident. This time around, while former Rep. Jeb Bradley is still pretty popular in the district, Obama will win the state handily, and polling has had the freshman incumbent pulling away.

36. MN-06 (Michelle Bachmann (R), R+6). This very red district is here for one reason and one reason only: because of Bachmann's moronic comment calling liberals and Barack Obama anti-American on MSNBC. Her words have caused a firestorm on national news, leading the DCCC to commit $1 million to the race, helped her opponent to raise over $500 K in a couple days, and pushing the NRCC to just announce it is pulling out completely. There is no polling yet, but I would bet Bachmann is sinking like a stone in a lake and would losing right now. The DCCC claimed the race was 42-38 before Bachmann's tv disaster, for what that's worth. The only question is if the mini-scandal has legs for two more weeks. Right now, though, the freshman is in huge trouble.

37. NY-26 (Open (R), R+3). Personally, I just don't think this seat will be flipped with the GOP candidate on three separate ballot lines. The DCCC obviously feels differently having already dumped $1.3 million here. Maybe the nationals know something I don't, but with that kind of money, the race should be close by default.

38. ID-01 (Bill Sali (R), R+19). We've gone over this one in depth. It should never be in play, but Sali is erratic, even for an Idaho First District congressman. A Survey-USA from this week put his opponent, Walt Minnick up 51-45, fairly closely mirroring Minnick's own released polling showing the challenger with a lead. That the NRCC has spent over a quarter of a million bucks here confirms the race's tightness. The GOP would probably be better off letting Sali fight on his own, and taking on Minnick in 2010 when he would likely be the most endangered congressman in America. They may get that chance anyway.

39. AL-05 (Open (D), R+6). This is a tough one to read. On paper, Democrats should win easily. State Sen. Parker Griffith is a strong nominee, while Wayne Parker is a two-time electoral loser. But races aren't determined on paper, and polling has gone both ways. Plus, Parker has been attacking Griffith relentlessly, but to an unknown effect. Dems have spent close to a million here, and I bet we don't see that stop.

Tier 5: Leaning retention for the holding party

40. KS-02 (Nancy Boyda (D), R+7). Nancy Boyda has banned the DCCC from her district, but her saving grace has been that the GOP is not helping her opponent, Lynn Jenkins. Slim polling has Boyda ahead high single digits, but it those are stale numbers, and I sense a tight finish.

41. VA-02 (Thelma Drake (R), R+6). Thelma Drake survived in 2006 by 51-48, so this one has been on the radar. Her opponent's polling has been showing a tight race, but an R2K poll gave her a healthy 14-point lead, and the district is still heavy-military and strong red. If Obama can pull out a huge statewide win, however, he might wash Drake right out of office. As it stands, she still retains the advantage.

42. AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell (D), R+4). I will be honest: I do not know this district much at all. I felt Mitchell was safe, but with the DCCC dropping about $1.4 million here, it must be closer than meets the eye. But until I see stronger evidence that Mitchell is in trouble, this one is not yet a toss-up.

43. CA-04 (Open (R), R+11). I am very surprised this race is winnable for Charlie Brown. He ran a great campaign in 2006, falling just short to now-disgraced retiring Rep. John Doolittle, but when Doolittle announced his retirement, I figured beloved state GOP icon Tom McClintock would win with ease despite his carpet-baggery. Apparently not so. Brown's own polling had the race 43-41 a couple months ago, and the only public poll (from R2K) gave Brown a 46-41 edge. Neither party has spent big here, but the DCCC is beginning to wade in. The GOP still has to be favored in such a red district, but this one is far closer than it should be.

44. MD-01 (Open (R), R+10). Wonder if the NRCC wishes the Club for Growth had not helped oust popular moderate Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in the primary? Clearly, this is a personal mission for Maryland Reps. Steny Hoyer and Chris Van Hollen, as the DCCC has spent an astonishing $1.3 million so, with the Club helping hold the fort with over $300 K. The only polling has been Democratic polling giving the blue team a slight advantage, but this one leans GOP until election day when an upset is looking possible.

45. GA-08 (Jim Marshall (D), R+8). The GOP has loved its opponent for Jim Marshall, who barely survived his 2006 in this gerrymandered seat. Marshall also voted for the bailout, a move which took some political courage here. Still, he has not committed other major political sins which would make this race a top pick-up opportunity for the GOP.

46. KY-03 (John Yarmuth (D), D+3). Democrats initially feared a rematch with former Rep. Anne Northup, but Yarmuth has been surprisingly strong, and has been up high single digits in several SUSA polls. It helps that Obama will likely carry Louisville where this district is based. Still, this might be one to watch a tiny bit on election day.

47. OH-02 (Jean Schmidt (R), R+13). See ID-01 and Bill Sali at #38. The only thing keeping this close is Schmidt herself, as well as a strong libertarian candidate in the race who should hit around 10 percent, and possibly more. Schmidt only beat Victoria Wulsin by 50-49 two years ago, though it is hard to argue that Wulsin is a top candidate here. The NRCC has spent $305,000 here in recent days, and the DCCC has more than matched with $454 K, so this may be tightening. Still, I would be surprised if Schmidt fell.

48. CA-11 (Jerry McNerney (D), R+3). What was once fashioned by Republicans as one of their top pick-up opportunities seems to be no more. There are no strong indications that the freshman rep will be ousted.

49. WY-AL (Open (R), R+19). We all know the story here. Three straight polls have Trauner at 44 percent here, which is an amazing result, but still short of victory. He has a tough ballot above him with a non-competitive presidential race, and two non-competitive Senate races. Trauner will win if he can find a way to grab a huge majority of independents again (he won 71 percent of indies against retiring Rep. Barbara Cubin), and a large piece of the torn GOP electorate, many of whom, are truly undecided on this race. Wyomingites like Trauner, but they have not sent a Democrat to Washington since 1976. It definitely hurts that Cubin is not on the ballot against him this year. If Obama can lose here by 20 points, as opposed to the 40-point blowouts Gore and Kerry experienced, it would help Trauner. The DCCC just spent its first $238 K here, and the more the better for Trauner. The Republicans are favored, but Trauner has an outside chance to pull off what would be the non-presidential win of the night.

50. KY-02 (Open (R), R+13). Most people don't realize that before retiring Rep. Ron Lewis won this seat in the GOP Revolution year of 1994, it had been in powerful Democrat William Natcher's hands for decades. The has some yellow dogs left, and the Democratic nominee, state Sen. David Boswell, is very well known here. However, he is an awful fundraiser, and has been for just about the entire cycle. The DCCC has spent $817,000 here, and amazingly, the NRCC just dropped $273 K here 10/22. Frankly, I am shocked at both of the amounts, particularly the GOP's spending. The race is close, but the seat is so red (and so promdominently white too), that a win for Boswell would be a big upset, especially considering Obama won't have coattails here.

Tier 6: Likely to remain in the current party's hands, with an upset possible if there is a national landslide

51. NV-02 (Dean Heller (R), R+8). While this is harsh land for Democrats, I felt it would come together more for Democratic nominee Jill Derby. She ran a strong race in 2006 before falling to Heller, 50-45. This year, the climate is better both nationally, and in the massive Second District where there has been a huge upsurge in Democratic registrations. Still, it doesn't appear that Derby has been able to get huge traction here, and while an R2K poll had her down only 47-42, their next one had Heller up 48-41. (There was a Mason-Dixon poll showing him up 13, but I dismiss their entire Nevada sample, which seemed way off in the presidential contest too). This might be the last stand for Republicans in Nevada this year. Derby has gotten no help yet from the DCCC, which she needs. Heller will likely survive, but Barack Obama's frequent visits to Elko County (a GOP stronghold), and the the early voting indications showing Obama's strength in key Washoe County (Reno), could provide coattails for Derby.

52. MO-06 (Sam Graves (R), R+5). The Democratic nominee, former Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes had been sought by national and Missouri Democrats for this seat for some time, and when she jumped in, she was highly touted as a top contender. So far, she has been unable to make much movement against Rep. Sam Graves, who has run a hard-edged campaign, to say the least. Maybe if Obama wins Missouri he helps Barnes, but there is no indication that she will win here.

53. IN-03 (Mark Souder (R), R+16). How this race can even be contested, is an indictment on the incumbent, Rep. Mark Souder. But worries abound in GOP circles that because Souder has not been much of a presence on the campaign trail, this race is within single digits and Souder is under 50 percent. There were big warning signs in 2006 when Souder won by just 54-46 over a Fort Wayne city councilor, but I and everyone else figured that was a political fluke. The DCCC has promised $500,000 for this contest, and has already spent $337,000 the NRCC $134,000. With the exception of ID-01 and maybe a couple others, I doubt there have been any races that irritate NRCC chair Tom Cole more than this one. It should never be competitive. Nevertheless, I still can't see Souder losing in a district this conservative.

54. PA-10 (Chris Carney (D), R+8). Let's be honest with ourselves: freshman Rep. Chris Carney would never have won here two years ago had the longtime congressman, Don Sherwood, not been exposed for having tried to assault and choke his mistress. But at the same time, credit has to be given to Carney for running a tight ship in Washington, and not making any big mistakes on the trail. His opponent, Chris Hackett is hardly a rockstar, and the NRCC's lack of any support for him kind of confirms that. The most recent independent polls, both from late-September, gave Carney leads of 10 and 15 points, respectively. For its part, the DCCC has spent nearly one million dollars here to shore up the freshman. An upset is highly unlikely.

55. AZ-03 (John Shadegg (R), R+6). Frankly, I refuse to believe this seat will flip, despite the worries of many Republicans. That the DCCC's $1.5 million spent there so far is noteworthy, but the only public polling from R2K two weeks ago had the incumbent ahead of attorney Bob Lord by 48-39. Lord's own polling from the same time gave him a tiny 45-44 lead. I will believe it when I see it, but I nonetheless find the GOP's panic here over one of their stalwarts very amusing.

56. AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords (D), R+1). The GOP did well in getting a good recruit here (as opposed to 2006, when the party nominated an extremist with no shot of winning), but this is a bad year for Republicans, even in Arizona, and this district is very moderate. Giffords is popular back home, and the DCCC has already said it is ending expenditures here. This could be lower on our list, but like the DCCC, we will put the freshman up here just to be on the safe side.

57. WI-08 (Steve Kagan (D), R+0). I see no reason why this seat would change hands, but I admit I don't know this Green Bay-based district as well as others. This is one of the very few places where the NRCC has played offense, to the tune of $544,000, but the only polling from this month gave the freshman Kagan a double digit lead. Until there is proof this seat can flip, I will not believe it.

58. FL-13 (Vern Buchanan (R), R+4). Buchanan only won his first term by a few hundreds votes in 2006, but the rematch has not developed into as competitive a contest. All polling has given the Republican a wide lead, and Christine Jennings has just not been able to get close. This race is not on the same tier as those other four Florida contests in our top 30 where incumbents are endangered.

59. NE-02 (Lee Terry (R), R+9). I know the Obama is fighting to win this district to get Omaha's electoral vote. And I found Terry's advertisements urging voters to cast their ballot for the an Obama-Terry combination very funny. But this is still Nebraska, and Democratic polls showing a tie notwithstanding, I can't see Jim Esch winning this seat, even with heavy DCCC spending. A Democratic win here would be one of those results which signal a nationwide blue tidal wave. If Terry loses, the GOP might shed 40 or more seats.

60. TX-07 (John Culberson (R), R+16). You all know Michael Skelly is one of my favorite candidates this cycle. He is the type of mind Congress needs right now. Skelly has run a great campaign, he has been an incredible fundraiser for a first-time candidate, and he has invested his own money in the contest. The incumbent John Culberson is a typical Texas Republican congressman, and as a result, he has a tight hold on this gerrymandered seat. Still, this is a very affluent district where all the Houston executives live, so they are more business-friendly than socially conservative, which makes Skelly, a former wind energy executive himself, more attractive. The only public poll here, from R2K a couple weeks ago, had Culberson up 48-40, and this seems right. Culberson is not quite there, but Skelly will need every break to surpass him. I doubt Skelly will win, but a 45 percent showing would be very respectable, and perhaps a spring-board for a future run.

61. TX-10 (Mike McCaul (R), R+13). People have been saying that this is a sleeper race. This district is slightly less conservative than the Seventh, and Rep. Mike McCaul's opponent, Larry Joe Doherty, may be more well known than Mike Skelly. Still, it remains to be seen if the former tv star's profile will cut it in the district. One worry for Republicans: McCaul only mustered 55 percent in 2006 against an opponent with no money. Both McCaul and Culberson should be a tiny bit concerned about the huge uptick in early voting so far in the state. There are no statistics on whether this favors Democrats, but it has to be worrisome for incumbents.

62. MS-01 (Travis Childers (D), R+10). That this seat is so low is kind of amazing. But Childers fits the district well, and that he won the special election run-off by a decisive 54-46 both solidifed his political standing, and scared off the possibility of any GOP money coming into northern Mississippi to bolster Greg Davis. Barring a scandal, Childers can likely settle into a safe seat for a while a la Gene Taylor.

63. VA-10 (Frank Wolf (R), R+5). Frank Wolf likely won't lost in his district this year, where he remains popular. But the district is becoming more and more Democratic, and eventually it will turn blue if it remains in its current form. His opponent, Judy Feder, has also raised a lot of cash. If Obama ends up winning Virginia by 10 points, this is a seat to watch (along with VA-02) to see if there is a spill-over impact.

64. IL-14 (Bill Foster (D), R+5). Like MS-01, this seat went from safely in GOP hands, to tentatively in Democratic hands following a special election, to now fairly safety in Democratic hands. Quite a turnaround in just one year, huh? Republicans are down on repeat-candidate Jim Oberweis, and this is merited considering he lost the special 53-47 against Foster, a man who had never run for office before. With Obama on the ballot, an Oberweis comeback is highly improbable.