McCain's Alamo

I have never been to the Alamo, but I think a know a little about its rich history and importance. The Alamo has come to symbolize one's last stand, and I think we are witnessing John McCain carve out his own political Alamo in the Keystone State, Pennsylvania, where it looks like he is going all-in in order to win the Electoral College and the presidency.

CNN reported yesterday that Team McCain is giving up on both New Mexico and Colorado, and putting a huge amount of its efforts into winning Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes in order to offset what they perceive as Senator Obama's likely wins in Iowa (seven electoral votes), New Mexico (five electoral votes), and Colorado (nine electoral votes). Interestingly, the McCain campaign did not refute the report, indicating they really are pulling up the stakes there.

Frankly, these decisions surprise at least it they relate to Colorado. New Mexico is gone, that's fairly clear. But the campaign's "official" decision to fight till the end to win Pennsylvania is not that surprising. Given John McCain's and Sarah Palin's many, many trips to the state over the past month, it appeared that they were genuinely in to win the state. For reasons we can speculate on, the campaign felt Pennsylvania was a better bet to go on some offense then to invest heavily in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and elsewhere.

At least according to the most important numbers, the Electoral College, this makes sense. Winning Pennsylvania would give the GOPers more room for error, as it has more electoral votes than any of the other generally-named contested states. If McCain were to win the state, losses in New Mexico, Iowa, and Colorado would be off-set, assuming McCain can hold the other Bush states.

Still, the math has not looked friendly to McCain in Pennsylvania. To wit, let's look at all of the state polling there in October:

West Chester University (10/5): O+10
Rasmussen (10/6): O+13
Survey-USA (10/6): O+15
Strategic Vision (10/6): O+14
Marist (10/7) O+12
Survey-USA (10/12): O+15
Susquehanna (10/18): O+8

This does not include the daily Morning Call tracking numbers have consistently shown the Democrat up by around 13 point (though, this morning, it has him at +10). Clearly, then, McCain faces a tall order.

Let's compare this to the Colorado state-wide polls over the same period.

Quinnipiac (10/5): O+9
Rasmussen (10/5): O+6
InsiderAdvantage (10/6): O+6
PPP (10/9): O+10
Quinnipiac (10/10): O+9
Suffolk (10/12): O+4
CNN (10/13): O+7
Rasmussen (10/19): O+5

While McCain is still down here too, the numbers are not nearly as daunting as those in Pennsylvania. Additionally, whereas Democrats have won Pennsylvania in the last four presidential contests, both Al Gore and John Kerry lost in Colorado. So, the recent history seems to suggest that Colorado is a better place for national GOP tickets.

My own view has been for some time that while Obama has a fabulous chance to win Colorado, it is not a gimme, despite what some people felt early on in the contest. It is still a conservative place where men like Wayne Allard, Bill Owens, and Doug Lamborn have won election since 2002. It is not a blue bastion, even if it is has certainly be moving towards the Democrats in recent elections. It is a state I do believe McCain can still win, though that too will be hard at this point.

Really, I think that this was a numbers decision for McCain. With limited resources (apparently $47 million left in the bank going forward), his campaign has to make tough choices about where to spend and where to send McCain and Palin. In their view, Pennsylvania is a better bet for them. While the numbers may not look inviting right now, they think the state can more likely be turned than the others.

Additionally, as it relates to Colorado, even if they win the state, they will not survive in Obama can another big state like Virginia, Florida, Missouri, or North Carolina. I guess that their thinking is that both Colorado and Pennsylvania will be tough, but if they can win Pennsylvania, they can protect themselves in the Electoral College a lot better than if they win Colorado. I can't say agree with their decision, but given their current lot, this is a rough choice they probably had to make.