Rahm to the White House Would Surprise Me

Mark Halperin is posting rumors tonight put up by the AP that Rahm Emanuel has been approached by Team Obama about potentially leaving Congress and becoming Barack Obama's White House Chief of Staff (assuming Obama wins on Tuesday). This is an interesting storyline, and while I would not dismiss it out of hand, it would surprise me not so much if Emanuel took the job if dangled to him, but more that Obama would ultimately offer it to him.

The first response to this rumor by many people will likely be that Emanuel would not take this job because he is rising fast in the House leadership, and at number four in the hierarchy and only 49 years old, he would rather bide his time to become Speaker of the House one day. This view makes a great deal of sense, but personally I do not think it would be a deal-breaker by any means.

There is no question that Emanuel is a huge player in the House today, coming in large part off of his hugely successful stint as head of the DCCC during the 2006 cycle where the Democrats took back the House. Additionally, as his stewardship of the DCCC demonstrated, Rahm is a shrewd and brilliant political tactician, possessing talents that his colleagues greatly admire.

Yet, there are good reasons why Rahm would not want to wait specifically for the Speakership. Yes, Rahm is number four on the depth chart, but his rise to the Speaker's chair is not a given. Nancy Pelosi looks like she is settling in for at least a few more years. After her, Steny Hoyer, the majority leader, is next in line and I think he is waiting until his turn comes. I concede that the number three, Majority Whip Jim Clyburn will not get it before Rahm given his older age and frankly, his lack of tremendous political acumen.

So, Rahm has to wait for Nancy to leave and then wait for Hoyer to get his shot and then retire. While he is only 49 years old and Democrats look like they will be in the House majority for a while now, who the heck knows what the future holds? The Democrats could lose the majority in 10 years, right as he is about to become Speaker, and Emanuel could be shut out if the GOP were to get back the majority and hold it for a while. The whole point being that waiting for Speaker in his position -- or any plum tht hinges on some many undetermined eventualities -- is not a given, and I really don't know if it is something Rahm wait for if he could have the ultra powerful position of Chief of Staff.

White House Chief of Staff is a position that would fit Emanuel very well. He is a consummate political insider with an enormous network of friends and contacts across and outside the government. He knows how to play the political game better than anyone, having been in the Clinton White House and also having remade the national party during his time at the head of the DCCC in 2005-06. It is a position he could fill, and probably fill well.

Perhaps more importantly, it is extremely powerful. The Chief of Staff is the President's top guy, and one of his closest confidants. He has more power than most cabinet secretaries, the Senate Majority Leader, and maybe even the Speaker herself. That would be attractive to a guy with Rahm's ego.

The problem as I see it is that as good a fit as Rahm would be in the position itself, he would likely not be the type of person that would fit as Obama's Chief of Staff. If this long campaign has proven anything, Obama is a man who operates on an even-keel just about all the time, and he likes to project coolness and discipline. These are qualities that are not perfectly attributed to Rahm Emanuel. Look at Obama's top advisers right now: David Axelrod, David Plouffe, and others who we never hear about. Obama puts a premium on quiet, balanced leadership behind the scenes. While Rahm is a behind-the-scenes guy himself, he does not possess the same kind of personal style as men like Axelrod and Plouffe. (And no, while a campaign is not a White House organization, the environment that envelopes the two lifestyles is so similar that they are basically the same in this key respect).

If you would like to get an idea of Rahm the man and his leadership style, I recommend you get your hands on the neat little book "The Thumpin'" by Naftali Bendavid. The book is about Rahm's work as head of the DCCC in great detail. Mine is one of the featured reviews on Amazon, and as you can see, I have enormous respect for Emanuel and his talents which remade the Democratic Party when it needed a kick in the butt most.

Anyway, as the book illustrates, Rahm is a ball of political energy and fire: a profane, excitable, ego-maniacal, take-no-prisoners, yeller-and-screamer, win-at-all-costs guy. It is through this personality that Rahm helped rebuild the moribund Democratic Party and got it back into the majority. In many ways, Rahm played a greater role than just about anyone -- Obama included -- in putting the Democrats back in power and constructing a blueprint for how the party could win elections and respectability (not to mention dignity) once again after years of beatings at the hands of the wily Republicans. Rahm is a guy who will do anything to win, and he often expresses himself in colorful (and not to mention unprintable) language and actions to get his point across.

While this type of skill set gets things done, however, I do not think it is what Obama will look for in his top White House aide. I don't see it, despite Obama and Rahm's Chicago connection and the latter's immense political gifts and insights. And this view takes into account the fact that since he has entered the House leadership, Rahm has mellowed, at least publicly (which is what matters for perceptions), and he has become a sharp communicator for the leadership.

The name being bandied about the most, former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, makes a lot more sense for Obama, even if it does not happen. Daschle's quiet, workmanlike persona fits with Obama better. Plus, he was a very early backer of Obama, and his longtime Chief of Staff, the respected Pete Rouse, became Obama's top guy in the Senate upon Obama's election in 2004 (as Dascle was ousted the same year). Daschle may not be as skilled as Rahm, but he is also not as profane, which is a plus here.

My conclusion? As my Amazon review shows, I think Rahm is one of the two smartest elected figures in the Democratic Party today (along with Chuck Schumer), and I have molto respect for him. I think he would actually be a great White House Chief of Staff, and a loyal solider to Obama. I even believe that he would not ultimately pass up the job if it were offered to him. But despite all of this, I do not think it will be offered to him by President-elect Obama.