Wicker v. Musgrove: Whites Going Red

This has not been a great week for Democrat Ronnie Musgrove. Earlier this week, two polls came out showing him losing significant ground in his challenge to Senator Roger Wicker. The first one showed him down 45-32, but I dismissed it as it had too many undecided voters, Musgrove's low percentage was not believable, and it was from a pollster I had never heard of. Soon thereafter Rasmussen showed Wicker up 54-43. I have a lot of respect for Rasmussen, so this result definitely caught my attention, however, I did not believe its finding that Wicker was winning 12 percent of the black vote.

Consequently, I held my fire until we heard from R2K one more time. I knew Kos would release a final poll of this contest in his slew of races, so I wanted to see R2K weigh in on whether Roger Wicker has indeed surged. Well, the R2K poll is out, and for the most part, it confirms the Republican's upward trend, giving Wicker a 51-44 advantage. Because the cross-tabs are generously provided (as always by Kos), let's dissect the important ones and compare them to the R2K poll from two weeks ago which showed the race at 47-46 Wicker.

Overall
Roger Wicker 51 (47)
Ronnie Musgrove 44 (46)

Already voted
Roger Wicker 47
Ronnie Musgrove 53

We are seeing Musgrove losing a couple points while Wicker went up a significant four percent. How did this happen? It's not hard to figure out when we peruse the data.

Candidate favorables

Roger Wicker
Overall: 54 favorable/43 unfavorable (54/42). Change: from +12 to +11

Among Men: 57/40 (57/40). No change--stayed at +17
Among Women: 51/46 (51/44). From +7 to +5

Among Republicans: 79/17 (79/18). From +61 to +62
Among Democrats: 28/69 (28/67). From -39 to -41
Among Independents: 51/46 (50/45). From +6 to +5

Roger really did not experience any changes in his personal splits in the last week. Let's see if Ronnie was so lucky.

Ronnie Musgrove
Overall: 48 favorable/48 unfavorable (52/43). Change: from +9 to 0

Among men: 45/52 (49/48). From +1 to -6
Among women: 51/44 (55/38). From +17 to +7

Among Republicans: 25/72 (31/67). From -36 to -47
Among Democrats: 74/22 (76/19). From +57 to +52
Among Independents: 47/46 (52/35). From +17 to +1

That is rough. In the last two weeks, Musgrove lost nine points overall, falling with every key group, in some cases drastically. Ten points among women, 11 points among Republicans, and worst of all, 16 points among independent voters. There is no way to mince words: a Democrat cannot win statewide in Mississippi with a 48/48 personal split.

I am not sure what has happened, but whatever attacks Wicker and the NRSC have been lodging, they are likely finally having an impact as the numbers Musgrove worked all year to pump back up following his re-election loss in 2003 are gone.

Head-to-head numbers

Among men
Wicker 55 (51)
Musgrove 42 (42)

Among women
Wicker 47 (53)
Musgrove 46 (50)

Independents
Wicker 49 (45)
Musgrove 47 (49)

The drop among women and independents is killing Musgrove. In a Republican-heavy state, he cannot overcome close shaves with either group given his inherent weakness among the state's men.

Whites
Wicker 78 (74)
Musgrove 20 (24)

Blacks
Wicker 5 (5)
Musgrove 85 (83)

This is your story right here. While Musgrove has maintained his advantage among blacks, he lost a chunk of his white support, and it went right into Wicker's pocket.

Remember what we said were the three things Ronnie Musgrove needed to accomplish in order to win this contest? Let's review:

(1) Get approximately one-quarter of white voters;
(2) Win the black vote overwhelmingly, with at least 91 percent of that group; and
(3) Hope that black turnout hits at least 37 percent, with 39 percent optimal.

If this poll is accurate, Musgrove should score close to or perhaps over 94 percent of the black vote. This is an incredible statistic. However, he is several points away from a quarter of the white vote. As a result, he is in awful shape in the state that has the most polarized voting patterns as they relate to race.

This is Musgrove's worst showing among whites since R2K started polling this contest. Going through previous polls, I surmised that Musgrove had a bedrock of white support somewhere around 23 to 26 percent of the white electorate, as Wicker had failed to move Musgrove away from that range all year. Until now. I am not sure if this is becuase the attacks are finally working, or conservative whites are just finally rallying to the GOP side. We cannot be sure. But they are moving, and it will cost Musgrove his shot unless something dramatic happens before Tuesday.

Assuming these numbers are right, and turnout ends at around 63 percent white and 37 percent black, the final vote will look something like

Roger Wicker 52.6
Ronnie Musgrove 47.4

Again, this presumes that black turnout will be approximately 37 percent. If black turnout were to hit 40 percent, with Musgrove winning 94 percent of blacks and 20 percent of whites, we would have something like this

Roger Wicker 50.4
Ronnie Musgrove 49.6

Roger Wicker would still win. This is Musgrove's dilemma. To win, he has to find a way to get some of conservative white supporters back, and there is little time.

My personal confidence in Musgrove's chances on this race has always been predicated on the belief that with his very conservative beliefs, he would be able to hold onto the white support he needed to win. Looking at this poll well demonstrates just how difficult Musgrove's mission is: it is tremedously hard balancing act, and it shows how rough Democrats have it running statewide in Mississippi today. The state's whites are just incredibly partisan and incredibly conservative.

I am not going to say this one is over, but I do not think I fully appreciated the precise partisan climate there, as well as Musgrove's political vulnerabilities.