Tidbits from the 3Q Fundraising Reports

Yesterday was the deadline for congressional campaigns to submit the funding reports: i.e. how much they raised, how much they spent, and how much money they have on hand. This will be the last reporting period before the election, and the numbers provide a good picture of how campaigns are doing. Swing State Project has posted all of the numbers, and I wanted to provide kind of a brief running diary on some of the numbers that popped out at me and why.

*AK-AL. Ethan Berkowitz raised a lot -- $596 K, with nearly $400 K left on hand, while Don Young raised just $211 K, with $276 on hand. At least Young is no longer burning through his money to pay his legal bills. Berkowitz also outspent Young in Alaska last quarter by over $200,000. Still, even though Alaska has a cheap media market, this is rough news for the longtime incumbent Young who is already down. The NRCC will not come in to save him either.

*AL-02. While Jay Love raised over $650,000, Bright banked $394 K, a good showing except when you see that he has just $66 K COH left, $240,000 less than Love. Interestingly, the spending of both men last quarter was nearly equal: $621 K for Love to $607 K for Bright. The DCCC is going to need to spend heavily in order to carry Bright over the finish line here.

*AL-03. Some people have been touting Democrat Josh Segall here against incumbent Rep. Mike Rogers. With just under $100,000 to Rogers' $800 K COH, it does not look good for Segall.

*AL-05. Republican Wayne Parker just out-raised Parker Griffith here, and has about $100 K more on hand. We might see more DCCC spending her to preverse this seat for Democrats. Griffth did outspend Parker here by over 2-to-1 in the second quarter.

*AZ-03. Rep. John Shadegg raised only $203 K, about $125,000 less than Democrat Bob Lord, though Shadegg remains well ahead in COH: 923 K to 150 K. This explains heavy Democratic spending here to even things out. What does stand out is that Lord spent $880 K last quarter to Shadegg's $634 K.

*CA-04. Mixed numbers for Tom McClintock. He raised nearly a million dollars, over 400 grand more than Charlie Brown, but he has only $94,000 left on hand while Brown has $457 K left in the bank. McClintock will need to spend wisely in the remaining days since the NRCC won't help him. Furthermore, while McClintock dropped nearly one million in the second quarter, Brown was no slouch with $730,000 in 2Q spending.

*CA-11. With $850 K COH, Republican challenger Dean Andal looks better than I thought. Still, Rep. Jerry McNerney has over a million, and still outraised the robust Andal.

*CO-04. Betsy Markey outraised GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave by 807 K to 649, though the incumbent has $800,000 COH, more than double what Markey has. With help from the DCCC, Defenders of Wildlife, and Emily's List, Musgrave is still facing tough odds. Musgrave spent over a million in quarter two (to Markey's nearly 900 K), but it might not be enough.

*CT-04. The good news for Democrats: challenger Jim Himes raised an impressive $790,000 to just beat out Shays who got $780 K. The bad news for Democrats: Shays has $1.79 million on hand, to just $440 K. Like we have been saying for some time -- Chris Shays will be a tough out.

*FL-08. Rep. Ric Keller outraised Alan Grayson 373 to 100, and has nearly one million dollars COH to Grayson's $310 K. Keller's problem? Grayson is a pure self-funder. If the DCCC finally gets in here, Keller may be finished. Indeed, Grayson outspent Keller last quarter $1.2 million to $330,000.

*FL-13. Democratic challenger and 2006 nominee Christine Jennings outraised GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan over 2-to-1, but Buchanan dropped close to two million in the district last quarter. This might explain Jennings' mediocre poll numbers. Buchanan has less than $300 K in the bank, but he is a self-funder. This is still tough sledding for Jennings.

*FL-21. Raul Martinez outraised Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart by $431 K to 394 K, while LDB has $1.75 million on hand to $1.12 million coh for Martinez. Both men are well-funded. This is going to be a barn-burner.

*FL-24. Challenger Suzanne Kosmas again out-raised Rep. Tom Feeney, though incumbent has double the COH. This is because Kosmas spent nearly a million dollars last quarter, more than double Feeney's spending. With the DCCC spending heavily, Feeney is in a tough race.

*FL-25. Like his brother, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart was outraised by his challenger, 539 K to 413 K. Mario was also outspent in Quarter two by over 2-to-1. The positive: MDB has $1.13 million on hand to Joe Garcia's $373 K. The DCCC will likely to spend here to even-out what is a tie ball game.

*GA-08. Jim Marshall out-raised his opponent, spent more in Q2, and has more than double COH. He looks to be more and more safe.

*ID-01. Whoa. Challenge Walt Minnick raised $640,000 to Rep. Bill Sali's $230 K, Minnick spent $1.23 million last quarter to just $274 K from Sali, and Minnick has just 25 K less on hand. Even in an R+19 district, one has to see Sali as in some trouble here.

*IL-10. Rep. Mark Kirk outraised and outspent Dan Seals, and he has $1.8 million on hand to Seals' $240. You have to figure if Barack Obama wasn't running for President this year, Kirk would be safe.

*IN-03. Rep. Mark Souder raised only $217 K, and has but $452 K on hand. However, challenger Mike Montagano has only $31,000 in the bank (though he did outspend Souder in quarter two by 471 K to 88 K). Why again did the DCCC drop half a million here?

*KS-02. Poor numbers for Democratic freshman Rep. Nancy Boyda: she got outraised (636 to 294) and outspent (575 to 543), though she does have more cash on hand (622 to 553). For someone who refuses to take help from the DCCC, Boyda should be careful. She is still on my top five most endangered Democrats list, and this only reinforces that view. This is not a slam-dunk one bit for Democrats.

*KY-02. Wow! David Boswell actually outraised Brett Guthrie -- 312 K to 248 K. He still has only about a third of COH than his opponent. This is another one the DCCC will have to try to win for the candidate.

*KY-03. Polling has been good here for showing a Democratic hold, but Rep. John Yarmuth and former Rep. Anne Northup raised about the same and have nearly identical COH numbers. This might one the DCCC needs to shore up (they have not spent here yet).

*LA-06. Bad news for Don Cazayox: his opponent, state Senator Bill Cassidy raised $464,000 to the incumbent's $524,000, and he now has $350 K more cash on hand than The Don, after the congressman spent 500 grand last quarter. The good news: independent would-be spoiler, state Rep. Michael Jackson, raised $28,000 and has but $20 K on hand.

*LA-07. So much for a challenge here. State Senator Don Cravins raised a decent $217 K, but he has only 34 thousand on hand. GOP Rep. Charles Boustany has $728,000 COH.

*MD-01. Interesting. Underdog Frank Kratovil both outraised Andy Harris in quarter three (597 to 557), and outspent him in quarter 2 (534 to 420); though, at this time the Republican Harris has close to $250,000 more on hand than the Democratic challenger (749 to 518). It looks like some connections to Steny Hoyer and Chris Van Hollen have helped keep Kratovil not just afloat, but to the point that he is truly competitive. This is officially one to watch.

*MI-07. Like Andy Harris just above, Rep. Tim Walberg is another Club for Growth baby (they both defeated sitting moderate GOP congressmen in primaries with the Club's backing) who is in big trouble. Walberg was outraised, outspent, and he has less on hand than state Sen. Mark Schauer. While the NRCC is backing Walberg bigtime, he's in enormous trouble with his opponent's financial strength (to say nothing for DCCC support).

*MI-09. Longtime Rep. Joe Knowlenberg could not have been happy today with the news that his party was pulling its financial backing for him. This comes on the heels a couple of weeks ago with McCain's announcement that he was leaving Michigan, leaving the congressman wide open for an Obama onslaught. His opponent outraised him by $144,000, and outspent in the second quarter by $1.24 million to just $433 K. On the bright side, Knowlenberg has just about $2 million COH, nearly five times as much as the Democrat. He is going to need every penny now.

*MN-03. GOP challenger state Rep. Erik Paulsen should be proud: he and his opponent Ashwin Madia have been neck and neck in the money race. The Republican has done a great job. It is not his fault the NRCC backstabbed him and pulled its support.

*MN-06. I do not buy that freshman GOP Rep. Michelle Bachmann is vulnerable, despite a recent Dem poll showing her up just a couple of points. Yes, her opponent was equal with her in fundraising, but Bachmann has a nearly 4-to-1 COH advantage. Perhaps the only way she goes down is if the DCCC weighs in big. I would say this is possible but not probable.

*MO-06. Kay Barnes is outraising and outspending Rep. Sam Graves, but so far she just has not been able to get any traction. If she loses, it won't be because she fundraised awfully, because she hasn't. Still, Graves has more money in the bank today.

*MO-09. State Rep. Judy Baker is supposedly even or above Blaine Luetkemeyer, at least according to the DCCC. She has nearly eight times as much COH, but this is misleading since the Republican is self-funding. This race is tougher to read based on the financial numbers, but I would say Baker is still the underdog.

*NC-08. Dem challenger Larry Kissell: outraised by about a quarter million, outspend by over $300 K, and facing a COH deficit of nearly 800 grand to a deep-pocketed incumbent. This has been one of five recipients of DCCC largese, which might explain in part why the Democrat has a good shot.

*NH-01. Hmm. Frankly, I am impressed. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter actually outraised former Rep. Jeb Bradley by 322 to 279. She also has much more COH -- 508 to 166. I am not sure why Bradley has been raising so little. Piss poor job by Bradley. With these numbers, and a lack of NRCC support, how can Bradley win?

*NJ-03. COH jumps out: $1.28 million for Adler to $288,000 for Myers. With that disparity, I am not sure how Adler can lose, even with his Trenton/George Norcross baggage. A gap that large just should not be filled in a Democratic district in a presidential wave year.

*NJ-05. Dem candidate and blind rabbi Dennis Shulman has half the COH as ultra-conservative Rep. Scott Garrett.

*NJ-07. The spending and COH comparisons reflect poorly for GOP contender Leonard Lance: Dem state Rep. Linda Stender spent $889 K in Q2 to Lance $345 K, and currently, Stender has 602 K to 248 K for Lance. Lance just isn't a good fundraiser.

*NM-01. GOPer Darren White's numbers are frankly pretty good. It's a shame that the NRCC pulled it's half a million commitment here, because otherwise he might have a shot. As it stands, a flood of DCCC money and Obama is a bad mix for the Republican sheriff.

*NM-02. Dem Harry Teague has outspent Ed Tinsley by almost 2-to-1. Yup, that will explain his small lead in the polls. Tinsley will need to cut himself a big check, much like Teague is doing for himself, to have a shot, even in this R+6 district.

*NV-02. Jill Derby actually outraised the incumbent (375 to 236), but Dean Heller outspent her 817 to 432. Plus, he has a little more COH: 406 to 236. This is not a great position to be in for an incumbent. He will likely be saved unless the DCCC finally spends here given how conservative this district is.

*NV-03. Rep. Jon Porter is being outraised and outspent, not mention being flooded with national DCCC money. With no NRCC support, he is almost certainly done.

*NY-13. How the heck can a Republican candidate for Congress in New York City have just $2,000 cash on hand in mid-October? Good God almighty.

*NY-29. Rep. Randy Kuhl is being outraised and outspent. That's a terrible job by a sitting congressman. That he has less COH than his opponent should demonstrate to his party that he must not want to keep his seat.

*OH-02. Incredibly anemic numbers for Jean Schmidt. Victoria Wulsin is no great shakes either, but with so little money in the incumbent's pocket, the DCCC could make a difference here.

*PA-03. Rep. Phil English is raising and spending a lot more than his opponent, but now only has a bit over 100 K more than her. NRCC continued support will be big for him to stay afloat.

*PA-11. Kanjo outspent his opponent by nearly 3-to-1, and he has over one million bucks more than him in the bank. He remains behind, so we have to wonder if the money will be enough.

*SC-01. This is one of those races we mentioned the other day that the GOP is panicking about. Rep. Henry Brown's opponent is a self-funder, and she outspent him in quarter two $776 to 207. Brown has $1.1 million left on hand, and we will see him dump most of it to solidify his standing in this R+10 district.

*TX-07. Whoa. Democratic challenger and political neophyte outspent incumbent congressman John Culberson almost 5-to-1, and has $1.14 million COH. Culberson has not been sitting on his hands, and he boasts $744 K in the bank. With his ability to self-fund, Skelly could make this race very interesting.

*TX-22. Despite being outraised, GOP #1 target Nick Lampson has over a million for the stretch run. He is as prepared as possible.

*VA-10. Upset possibility? Unlikely this year, but second-time Dem challenger Judy Feder's $600+ K on hand is impressive. If Obama racks up a double-digit win in the Commonwealth, Feder's numbers will rise.

*VA-11. Self-funding Republican Keith Fiminan actually outspent favorite Gerry Connelly, but it likely won't be enough.

*WA-08. There is a lot of money flowing in this race.

*WV-02. Rep. Shelly Capito Moore is pretty strong financially, and looks like a better bet to survive.

*WY-AL. GOPer Cynthia Lummis is slightly outraising (400 to 275) and outspending (468 to 350) Gary Trauner, but he still has much more in the bank for the final three weeks to the tune of 600 K to 200 K. The DCCC should boast him.