The Situation Worsens for House GOP

As if things could not get any worse for Republican House candidates, an article in today's Politico seems to suggest that it is getting much, much worse. In a piece titled "GOP ditches recruits to save incumbents," Politico reveals that the NRCC and the national party have begun to completely abandon even their top House recruits in order to dedicate the party's remaining resources to save GOP incumbents and stalwarts, many of whom find themselves in tight races absolutely no one expected. Here is the money section of the article:

Darren White and Erik Paulsen were prized Republican recruits, House candidates poised to be the new face of the GOP on Capitol Hill.

But as the two head into the homestretch of their campaigns, GOP operatives say they’ll probably have to win — or lose — on their own. The money national Republicans earmarked for White in New Mexico and for Paulsen in Minnesota will likely go instead to protect GOP incumbents who once looked like locks for reelection.

GOP Reps. John B. Shadegg of Arizona, Lee Terry of Nebraska, Henry Brown Jr. of South Carolina and Dan Lungren of California are all fighting for their political lives, a reversal of fortunes that has caught even the most astute campaign observers by surprise.

As we noted in the first part of our appraisal of House race expenditures earlier today, White and Paulson were two of the GOP's most touted challengers this cycle for seats of retiring moderates. Both men were expected to run strong campaigns and likely win in November, even in the face of what was expected to be a bad year for Republicans. They were no doubt recruited into their contests -- in New Mexico's First District and Minnesota's Third District -- with promises that the national party would provide robust financial support.

Unfortunately for White, Paulson, and probably a big handful of other challengers, the NRCC is not only basically broke, but the national environment has gotten so bad that even entrenched Republicans, in the reddest districts, facing third-tier challengers, are now scared. The article goes on to mention a few more congressmen including Mark Souder and Dana Rohrabacher.

Let's look closely at that list there:

Henry Brown (SC-01, R+10, 61/59, 74)
Dan Lungren (CA-03, R+7, 58/55, 61)
John Shadegg (AZ-03, R+6, 58/54, 70)
Lee Terry (NE-02, R+9, 60/57, 58)
Mark Souder (IN-03, R+16, 68/66, 62)
Dana Rohrabacher (CA-46, R+6, 57/55, 61)

Let's scrutinize these numbers. The first one after each district number is the Cook PVI, followed by President Bush's percentages in the district in 2004 and 2000, and finally the average percentage of the vote the incumbent congressmen got in the 2004 and 2006 elections.

Two things should stick out at you. First, these are all very, very Republican districts. The average PVI is R+9, which is extremely Republican. The range of performance for Al Gore and John Kerry in these districts was miniscule.

Second, and more important, is that just about each of these six representatives have been extremely popular back home. The average 2004/2006 win percentage for the six here is a whooping 64.3 percent: these are conservatives who are well-liked in conservative districts. Admittedly, several of them have faced basically no organized opposition, at times not even having to run against Democrats in their districts. But nevertheless, all have been strongly supported for a while in their districts. That any of these six, let alone all of them are now concerned for their elections next month is stunning. These are members of Congress who simply never have to worry about anything electorally.

The article compares these current races to the losses of Jim Leach (IA-02), Jim Ryun (KS-02), and Gil Gutknecht (MN-01), who were all surprisingly beaten in 2006 after their races had been assumed to be safe until the very end. This is a fair argument, as each of these men, especially Leach and Ryun were very popular in their districts. The difference, at least with respect to Leach is that he was in a moderate district, and while he had one of the most moderate records in the House GOP caucus, he got caught in a bad year. Really, it was only a matter of time until he was beaten or forced to retire. Gutknecht had a record that was too conservative for a swing district. Conversely, most of these six current reps are not only popular, but they occupy extremely red districts. That any of them are in danger, let alone possibly all of them, suggests the 2008 wave will crest even higher than that in 2006, and thus wash away even more Republicans.

I am not trying to say that these men will actually lose; in fact, I would be shocked if any of the six lost, given that they are mostly facing essentially third-tier (or lower) level Democratic challengers. Just the very fact that the national GOP is worried about them, and may expend resources in these distircts should be devastating to the party faithful. These are the exact kinds of districts that should never be up in the air, almost but not quite like TX-11 or UT-03 for the Republicans, or FL-11 or MA-08 for the Democrats.

It would be surprising if the DCCC ended up weighing in in most of these districts; though, today it announced that it was dumping $478,000 in IN-03, this on the heels not just of this Politico story but of a recently-released internal poll from Souder's Democratic opponent showing that he was down just five points to the Republican.

Of this list of six, Souder is probably the most threatened incumbent, which is ironic because his district is probably the most Republican of all of them. Souder won in 2006 by a surprisingly close 54-46, which seemed to suggest some alarm bells. Indeed, an article in Roll Call today on Republican panic had this blurb:

Souder has never faced a competitive general election race, has never been a big fundraiser and is viewed as abrasive. One Indiana-based GOP operative expects the strong conservative lean of the Fort Wayne-area district and the presidential turnout to ultimately save Souder’s job.

But he said the Congressman isn’t doing himself any favors with his advertising, and he added that media there would be cheap for the DCCC to purchase. Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) is making a strong play for Indiana’s electoral votes, and his organization might also aid Montagano on Election Day.

“I think Souder’s under 50, and I think it’s in single digits,” the Indiana Republican operative said. “Do I think it’s in the margin [of error] yet? No. But Montagano doesn’t have to be in the margin yet. There are still three weeks left.”

So Souder may be the exception on this list of exceptions, but I would still be surprised if he were beaten. Democratic aggressiveness in this district probably indicates that the race is close now, and the DCCC views Souder as vulnerable as he was in 2006 when he had trouble with an underfunded challenger. He and Shadegg are probably the ones on the list above in the most potential danger. Obama may be investing resources in Omaha, but Lee Terry should be safe. The others, well, if any of Lungren, Brown, or Rohrabacher fell...wow.

In sum, though, I do not want to lose sight of what we are saying here. This is not about a single nominee like Mark Souder or John Shadegg, or even whether they will end up winning. Instead, these articles from today are astonishing in showing just how far GOP despair is at this moment, and how bad things have gotten for the Republicans. It is one thing for unique circumstances to make vulnerable a particularly conservative district. Heck, that is happening already in places like ID-01, TX-07, WY-AL, AK-AL, and AL-02. What is noteworthy is that now even popular conservatives are feeling the heat, and forcing the NRCC to concentrate resources in seats that should never, ever be contested. This might be as bad as it gets for the GOP.

Until maybe tomorrow.