Tight Alaska Contests Show Predictions Are Pointless

Daily Kos/R2K also released some new polls today on the House and Senate races in Alaska we have spent so much time on. Poll results from R2K's last poll in mid-September are in accompanying parenthesis.

Senate
Ted Stevens 46 (44)
Mark Begich 48 (50)
Undecided 6 (6)

House
Don Young 44 (39)
Ethan Berkowitz 50 (53)

I am going to keep this short and sweet, both to spare you a treatise, and also because there really is no brillaint analysis to make here.

*As we have said many times over, the ability of Democrats to get rid of either Stevens or Young, is not going to be easy. Even in the face of corruption trials (Stevens) and multiple on-going federal investigations (Young), Alaskans have a strong attachment to both men, and it will be hard for many of them to punch the ballot against them.

*While this view may go against both logic and the opinion of every one else on earth, here goes: Stevens' and Young's mini surges here are probably more connected to how Stevens' trial has been going than to Sarah Palin's inclusion on the national ticket. Alaska has been following Stevens' trial in Washington, DC very closely. As the prosecution has been bumbling its way to an acquittal -- an issue we dedicated some thoughts to last week -- this has helped raise Stevens' favorables in the last month (he went from 40/56 to 44/51 in this latest poll). As a result, both he as well as Young to a lesser extent (41/58 to 43/56) benefited.

I believe both Stevens as well as Young have more riding on Stevens' trial than on Sarah Palin's travails. If Stevens is convicted, they are both almost certainly gone: Stevens because it will be him being found guilty on federal corruption counts, and Young because Stevens' conviction will have a spillover impact on the House race by starkly remind voters of Young's ethics problems, which will lead many voters to decide then and there to clear the slate.

Furthermore, I think the numbers back me up a bit. R2K found Palin's favorable split with Alaskans to be 63/34, and her job approval rating at 60/35. Are these strong for a politician? Absolutely. But they are not great for Palin. For one, she has had ratings in the 80s since taking office in 2007. Additionally, you would think that inclusion in the national contest would raise Alaskans' pride in her and their feelings for her. Not so. Palin's myriad of problems on the trail have hurt her across the country, including in Alaska. It is for this reason that I think her coattails in these two contests is being overstated.

*Making any predictions on these races is 10,000 percent pointless. We can be sure of nothing until the jury makes a decision (or is perhaps hung) in Stevens' trial. Apparently, the case will go to the jury next week, so we may have a decision very soon. An acquittal would re-elect Stevens, and help Young immensely, though his re-election then would not be as probable.

This is unfortunate for Mark Begich and Ethan Berkowitz because there is only so much they can do, and they have no control over what 12 men and women who live in the District of Columbia decide. Ditto the DSCC and the DCCC which are spending enormous sums to oust the two old men. But that's how it is.