Bye Ted, Bye Don

It looks like the Stevens' conviction will hammer the final nail into the coffins representing the long (and colorful) careers of Alaska politicians Senator Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young. R2K's final poll of the races paints a bleek picture for the incumbents with 75 years of combined congressional service between them. As with Mississippi, let's chop up the salient numbers (compared with the previous polling from about two weeks ago).

Senate
Ted Stevens 36 (46)
Mark Begich 58 (48)

Stevens went from down just two points in the middle of his trial, to down 22 points days after his guilty verdicts were handed down. He has gone from 40-year legend to pariah literally overnight. And the losses are across the board: Stevens went from winning men by seven to losing them by nine, he lost immense support among Republicans, and he is even down 39 points among independents (after losing them by "only" 16 percent two weeks ago).

Ted Stevens favorables
Overall: 34 percent favorable/65 percent unfavorable (44/51). From -7 to -31

Among independents: 28/71 (41/53). -12 to -43

I could go through each group to show his drop, but what's point? He's lost support among everyone, with even a third of Republicans now viewing him unfavorably (that other two-thirds were the same ones at that welcome-home rally, and they will be with Uncle Ted until the end). In terms of Mark Begich, I am not going to bother going through his favorables -- they're 57/34 (53/37) -- because they changed little, and because this election is about Ted and Ted alone.

Let's take a quick look at the House race and whether Ted's troubles impacted Don Young's standing in his own race.

House
Don Young 44 (44)
Ethan Berkowitz 53 (50)

Not really much movement here. Don Young's level of support stayed the same while Ethan Berkowitz's rose three points. Interestingly, Democratic support has solidified a bit more for Berkowitz (90-7 (85-8)), while GOP support for Young is stable (80-17 (79-14)). Even indies have not moved much, sitting at 59-38 for the Democrat after being 58-38 in his favor two weeks ago.

How about the favorable ratings?

Don Young favorables
Overall: 39/60 (43/56). From -13 to -21

Among men: 46/53 (50/49). +1 to -7
Among women: 32/67 (36/63). -27 to -35

Among Republicans: 65/34 (71/28). +43 to +31
Among Democrats: 8/91 (11/87). -76 to -83
Among Independents: 37/62 (40/59). -19 to -25

Like Stevens', Young's personal splits plunged across the board, even among his base. The difference is that Young did not bleed actual support in the most important poll. Perhaps, then, he can be thankful he stayed merely stagnant. For his part, Berkowitz went from 54/40 to 57/40 -- just like Begich, a slight uptick, but really further evidence that while he and Begich are very credible challengers, these races are about the incumbents.

I still think that Stevens will finsh in the mid-40s in his race, but this poll seems to suggest that as the verdict has sunk in, people have not rallied to Stevens so much as run away from him. Except of course, those individuals at that ridiculous rally I posted on yesterday.