Down-Ballot Implications for McCain's Michigan Retreat

Late this week, the McCain campaign announced that it was pulling out its forces and resources from Michigan, and moving them to other states including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and others. I guess that this was not a huge surprise given McCain's recent big dip in Michigan -- right now, Nate Silver's model predicts that Obama will win the state 52-to-45 -- but nonetheless, it was an interesting and somewhat unexpected decision at this time.

There's no question that this decision will have a big impact on the presidential contest. By ceding Michigan's 17 electoral votes to the Democratic ticket -- electoral votes Team Obama has to have in order to win -- McCain has made Obama's mission that much easier. This is obvious stuff. What is more interesting to me is what kind of effect this move will have on down-ballot races.

Currently, Michigan has two very important and very close House races in the Seventh and Ninth Districts. In both, embattled Republican incumbents have been facing very stout opponents who are well funded. Before McCain's pull-out, these contests were leaning very slightly towards GOP retention. As Obama's national lead has widened and solidified, the contests have moved into toss-up territory. Now, given McCain's move, the two incumbents in these districts, Tim Walberg and Joe Knollenberg, will have a very hard time getting re-elected next month.

Keep this in mind: in 2004, John Kerry carried Michigan by the barest of margins: 51-to-48. With McCain leaving the state entirely, it would not be impossible to see Obama winning the Wolverine State by double-digits; heck, recent polls over the last week have already found Obama up by more than 10 points. A big win like this would unquestionably have an impact on down-ballot races like those in MI-07 and MI-09. In which case Walberg and Knowlenberg are in serious, serious trouble.

Honestly, Republicans should consider themselves lucky there are not more endangered seats in Michigan like in a place like Florida. Because Dems did not recruit a decent challenger in the marginal Eighth District, incumbent Mike Rogers will easily win, when he too could have been threatened by an Obama Michigan tidal wave had he been forced to square off against a half-decent Democrat.

Looking at the broader national map, as we have discussed many times, an Obama wave could have a very similar impact in other states where there are many close House and Senate contests. Florida is the perfect example. The state is host to five competitive House races, four of which are around tied right now. What is of particular danger to the GOP in these races is that two of them -- the Eighth and the Twenty-Fourth -- are in and around Orlando, and two of them -- the Twenty-First and the Twenty-Fifth -- are in and around Miami. Obama's numbers in big cities and urban areas like these are almost assured of being stronger than Kerry's performance in these regions.

An Obama win in Florida of any significance could signal the end of the careers of those four Republican incumbents. Of course, McCain will never pull out of Florida -- he absolutely has to have its 27 electoral votes to win -- but his recent sagging performance in the state should bring worries to these and other threatened GOP incumbents. The same applies to numerous other states across the country. In other words, John McCain's actions in these states have huge implications not just for the presidential race, but key congressional contests as well, ones that should not be completely over-looked as we all focus on the White House.