Tom Davis: An Appreciation

I would like to direct you to an excellent article that appeared in this Sunday's New York Times Magazine on Congressman Tom Davis III (R-VA). For those of you who read this page regularly or semi-regularly, you probably know that I have a lot of respect and even some political affection for the retiring Republican congressman. The article gives some interesting background on Davis, his disaffection for congressional politics, both Republican and in general, and the GOP's excommunication of Davis from its ranks. And while the article does not directly touch on the issue, it well reinforces the theme we've been talking about here of how the Republican Party is marginalizing its appeal to voters and its ability to grow by forcing out or pushing aside moderates.

A good part of the article focuses not so much on the politics implicit in Davis' decision to retire at the fairly young political age of 59, but on Davis' disillusionment with the partisan warfare now plaguing Congress. As a general matter, the article reads well as a chronicle of what happens to a true political animal who tires of the process and comes to learn that there is a such thing as too much politics as an agent which poisons the process. In other words, it is in large part a tale of a man simply washing his hands of the political circus. To be fair, however, I think a good portion of Davis' discontent is that he is now in the minority -- and in the House, the minority is impotent -- and has lost his chairmanship.

Anyway, maybe it's worthwhile to give a little bit of background on Tom Davis for those who might not know him too well. Davis has represented Virginia's Eleventh Congressional District since he was elected as part of the 1994 Republican Revolution. Davis is one of the GOP House caucus's most moderate members, and he has been for some time. This is certainly by political calculation, as well as because of Davis' own principles: the district, covering a swath of northern Virginia including Fairfax County, is no red bastion, and each year it moves more and more to the left as Washington, D.C. transplants and other Democrats move into the area. Consequently, Davis has carved out unique positions for a Republican serving in what was not-to-long ago Tom DeLay's Congress: he has pushed hard (albeit unsuccessfully) to give the District of Columbia a full-voting seat in the House of Representatives -- a move certainly not popular with his colleagues as the seat would be permanently safely Democratic, he supports federal funding for stem cell research and opposes drilling in ANWR, and he is not an immigration hardliner.

In my opinion, Tom Davis is the sharpest Republican political mind in Congress today. He's quite an interesting figure. Davis is essentially a stats geek, both in baseball as well as in politics, something I have great admiration for (mostly because I like to consider myself the same thing; though I am of course nowhere near Davis' level). He served two terms at the helm of the NRCC, where he did a tremendous job in protecting incumbents, and plucking Democratic seats he astutely saw as vulnerable. The venerable Almanac of American Politics notes in its profile of Davis that he is the most politically knowledgeable Member of Congress since the death of the legendary Phil Burton of California in 1983, and I think that's probably true. (As a side note, I recently read a superb book about Burton, A Rage for Justice, which I intend to discuss here soon.) For his work, Davis was quickly seen as a rising star, put on a fast track, and he was even made chairman of the powerful Government Reform Committee, giving him the top spot over several other Members who had greater seniority.

However, despite his impressive skills and political brilliance, Davis' blunt manner and moderate views have rubbed a lot of his colleagues the wrong way for some time. This is apparent in several anecdotes mentioned in the article. He has been heavily critical of the Government's response to Hurricane Katrina, he has lamented his party's move to the right, and this year he has repeatedly equated the GOP brand with dog food that should be taken off the shelf. As funny as that latter one is, this quip from Davis (from the article) might be my favorite:

At one point, discussing voting rights for felons, he allowed that not all felons are Democrats. “There are a lot of Republican felons,” he said. “I served with them in Congress.”

In short, while many Republicans in the House have long bristled at Davis' moderation, there is no question that it is his penchant for bluntness that is more grating, and probably better explains why Davis is so unpopular with many of his colleagues. Indeed, in May, after the GOP suffered its third special election loss of the cycle -- this one in Mississippi's First District, a R+10 district -- Davis penned a now-well-known memo on the GOP's ills going forward which was widely received as frank, smart, and constructive. Nonetheless, while they acknowledged the strengths of the report, Davis' colleagues were none to happy for Davis' work, no matter how sharp.

Much of this explains what has happened to Davis over the last year, and why he decided to hang up his spurs. Still there are two other key events which probably had the greatest impact on Davis' decision to leave. First, Davis' wife, a state senator, was badly trounced in her re-election bid. Davis typically took charge of her campaign (her district was also in a part of northern Virginia), and he understandably took her loss very hard. It was a bitter and often acrimonious campaign.

Second, was what transpired with John Warner's open Senate seat. Being politically ambitious, Davis has long coveted a move into the upper chamber. When longtime popular moderate Sen. John Warner announced his retirement, it was immediately assumed that Davis would run under the Republican banner against the likely Democratic nominee, former Gov. Mark Warner. While Davis would have been a decided underdog in a contest with the ultra-popular M. Warner, he certainly would have been the GOP's best option. As a moderate and coming from the Democrat-rich northern part of the state, Davis would have had good potential to eat into two key constituencies of Warner's. Furthermore, Davis is a shrewd operator and excellent fundraiser, so he could have closed the gap somewhat against the rich-as-Croesus former Nextel executive.

Davis' interest in the seat was clear. However, he was met with resistance within the Virginia Republican Party. The relationship between Davis and the VA GOP is very telling, not just of the state of Virginia's politics, but also of the direction of the national Republican Party at the present time.

Close followers of politics know that Virginia has been trending Democratic for several years. After being a strong red state for years, this movement first became apparent when Mark Warner scored an upset win in the governor's race in 2001. This was followed up with Tim Kaine succeeding Warner in 2005, Jim Webb stunning GOP Sen. George Allen in 2006, and the Dems re-taking the state Senate last year. Now, Mark Warner is all-but-assured of winning the open U.S. Senate seat.

Yet, despite this movement, the Virginia GOP has remained shockingly unmoved. It remains dominated not by pragmatic moderates in the mold of Davis, but by hardline conservatives who have refused to make changes to the party's brand in the state, even as the Commonwealth is moving faster and faster towards becoming a blue state. Ironically, there are few men who have understood this movement and the perils of remaining politically extremist better than Tom Davis, who has seen Democrats flood into northern Virginia in record numbers, and has adapted as such in order to survive in recent cycles.

Nonetheless, the Virginia GOP snubbed Davis by ordering that the GOP nominee for Senate be determined not by a statewide primary, but through a party convention. The significance of this was move simple, and it was clearly a means to deny Davis. Whereas a primary would have been open to independent voters, a convention would be dominated by ultra conservative hardline activists. Seeing the writing on the wall, Davis dropped out of the running early, and the party convention went with strong conservative and former Gov. Jim Gilmore. Gilmore, a heavily unpopular figure in the state, has been down over 30 points in most polls of the contest with Warner since day one, and will be annihilating on election day, making both of Virginia's Senate seats Democratic.

Since Davis' failure to run for the Senate, he has become increasingly disillusioned, a fact the NY Times' Magazine article well documents. As noted above, he has taken more public shots at the GOP in Congress, President Bush, and his party's broader woes heading into the November elections. In terms of his own future, I see Davis going into the private sector and making an absolute fortune based on his bipartisan profile and the government contacts he made as chair of the Government Affairs Committee. He definitely has his eyes on Jim Webb's re-election campaign in 2012, and I would bet he is intending to make that run (he is coy on this question in the article). Make no mistake: Jim Webb is not Mark Warner, and Davis would be able to give him a strong challenge. But this is over four years away.

As I wrote at the start, Tom Davis' predicament reflects very poorly on the current state of the national Republican Party (not to mention the state Virginia GOP). The party is doing nothing to stop the mass exodus of moderates running towards the retirement exits; in point of fact, the party and its leadership is actively trying to discourage or in some cases even force out non-conservatives, who are often pejoratively called "RINOs" or, Republicans in Name Only by many conservatives.

It is an unfortunate thing for Republicans that Davis is jumping ship. He's one of the party's top minds, and one of their sharpest strategists. Finding his replacement among the ranks of people like Michelle Bachmann, Tom Cole, Bill Sali, and Virginia Foxx will not be easy. Perhaps the most fascinating part is that most Republicans in Congress probably do not even appreciate this fact. As I already conceded, some of these feelings likely relate more to Davis' personality than his politics, but I think the latter factor is certainly a part of the equation.

So, Republicans will first lose Davis' seat, probably for a very long time, as well as his insights at a time when cool-headed and rational appraisals of their poor situation are well in order. More broadly, for reasons we've outlined in the past, Davis' departure, along with a host of other retiring moderates like Jim Ramstad (also retiring), Wayne Gilchrest (defeated in his primary by a conservative true believer), and Mark Kirk (likely to lose his general election contest), will end up doing long-lasting damage to the Republican Party.

It may seem strange that a pretty partisan Democrat is lamenting the loss of a wily Republican who has delivered some partisan licks to the Democrats. Sure, Democrats will gain one more seat to pad to their ever-increasing majority, and the GOP will also lose a smart voice within its ranks. But sometimes there is more to base politics than, well, base politics. I like Tom Davis. He is a rare Member of the GOP caucus that gets along well with many Democrats (another fact that has rankled his colleagues), and is not painfully self-important like many Members of Congress. At base, he's a political junkie like many of us, and he's a guy I personally would love to sit down with and talk shop.

So, here's to you Tom Davis. While many Democrats (and sadly, Republicans) do not lament your retirement from politics, I'm actually sorry to see you leave. Have a good retirement.