Democrats Should Fear an Acquittal

On the day that he was indicted on seven Federal counts, Ted Stevens' political career was pronounced dead on arrival by every single reporter, political analyst, and pollster that was quoted in a story. Even political followers in Alaska said Stevens' career was over, and it was merely a question of whether he would resign or serve out the rest of his term.

Given his unparalleled hubris, we strongly disputed that he would ever resign -- mind you, this is a man who boastfully announced his re-election campaign soon after his house was raided by the FBI and who basically guaranteed victory -- but we did agree here that Stevens' political life was likely over. At the time, we still held out the belief that Stevens could survive under the right circumstances. I was holding out simply because I knew how beloved Stevens is in Alaska, and that his career was not over until he either actually quit or was finally vanquished at the polls.

Well, today, it is looking more and more likely that Senator Stevens may still be in the Senate on January 4, 2009, the first full day of the 111th Congress. Such a scenario would certainly complete one of the fastest and greatest turnarounds by in modern political history. How are we headed there? Well, for starters, we all know that not only did Stevens refuse to resign, but that he plowed ahead with his re-election plans, easily crushed a crowded primary field of losers, and requested and received a speedy trial that could be completed before the November 4 general election. Stevens' goal was obviously to win a full acquittal in order to propel him to yet another term in office.

The trial started a couple of weeks ago at the the United States courthouse just down the street from the Capitol, and needless to say, it has not been going as planned for both the Federal Government and for Democrats who have been expecting (and eagerly hoping for) a conviction of Uncle Ted.

The case has been riddled with miscues by the prosecutors running the case, mistakes so serious that the judge -- a Clinton appointee, by the way -- has seriously entertained granting several motions for a mistrial or dismissal offered by Stevens' high-powered (and high-priced) attorneys from Williams and Connolly. Prosecutors have had to apologize for sending a key witness back to Alaska without notifying the defense or the judge, not giving the defense access to certain documents and evidence, and just today, in a bizarre scene, the judge strongly admonished the star witness's personal attorney for apparently giving said witness signals from the audience.

As a result, a trial that was once perceived as a slam dunk, is in great doubt. Given the Government's ineptitude up to this point, the case might not even make it to the jury, and even if it does, it does not seem clear that the U.S. has built an iron-clad case (at least up to this point) against Stevens for not properly reporting gifts in his Senate disclosure forms. Indeed, while the Government just played some tape-recorded conversations between Stevens and the star witness which it argued would reflect on Stevens' guilt, my own opinion after reading the transcipt of the recordings is that the tapes provide no smoking gun at all. Nor did the star witness's testimony, for that matter.

I concede right off the bat that I have not been in the courtroom for any of the proceedings. I am judging merely what I have read in several news accounts. There may well be more to the case than meets the eye. However, from what I have seen and read, I am not terribly impressed with the Government's case. Consequently, I think that the possibility of an acquittal on at least some of charges is very possible.

Politically, the consequences of a full acquittal for Senator Stevens are absolutely enormous. If Stevens is acquitted, he will win re-election. That is not a question in my mind. Right now, he has already closed what was a big gap in the polls, with Rasmussen reporting today that he is actually ahead by a single point, 49-to-48. Poor Mark Begich (as well as Chuck Schumer and the DSCC) are powerless to do anything; everything will hinge on the outcome of the trial, regardless of how well Begich campaigns. If Stevens is convicted on all seven counts, he will be beaten at the polls, regardless of Palin being on the ballot (an issue I will briefly reflect on in another post).

What will happen if there is a hung jury or Stevens is convicted on some charges but acquitted on others? That is very hard to say. It will depend solely on how Alaskans perceive the result and it is received in Alaska. My own personal sense is that if is convicted on more than one or two charges, he is probably screwed, but if he is only convicted on a minor charge, he may be able to deflect that as a meaningless finding, and still ride to victory. A hung jury? Who the heck knows what would happen there. On the one hand, it would ensure that a cloud of impropriety would still hang over Stevens' head, but on the other hand many Alaskans could take such an ending as a form of vindication. Very hard to predict.

It is kind of amazing that 12 men and women in a District of Columbia jury will determine the fate of an a very important Senate race in Alaska, but that's how it is. Also, I believe that if Stevens is acquitted, his legal victory could spill over to benefit Alaska's embattled Congressman At-Large, Don Young, who is also facing a high own very tough re-election fight in the wake of revelations that he is under Federal investigation and could eventually face corruption charges.

Therefore, the stakes of this trial are quite big. Given how things have been going so far, Democrats should be extremely nervous in the outcome. If Stevens gets his vindication, Democrats can say good-bye to any aspirations of getting 60 Senate seats, a possibility that is looking more and more likely in recent weeks. I have little doubt that Chuck Schumer is going into some cold sweats at night anticipating an acquittal or dismissal.

Let me also make one more point on this trial. I am sure many people might dismiss the following as the ranting of a partisan Democrat, or perhaps as a foolish conspiracy theory, but I will take that chance.

The strange exploits of this trial smell fishy. Assistant United States Attorneys are the cream of the crop in the legal community. They are the best, and they usually present powerful cases. It seems extremely strange to me that such seasoned prosecutors as those working on the Stevens case would make so many egregious mistakes as have been made in this trial. This was not a case of a single error: the trial has been filled with stupid moves by the prosecution.

I think that it is entirely possible that the Justice Department has ordered the team handling this case to tank the matter. There is a lot on the line. This case could single-handedly determine not just the outcome of a Senate race -- those were the stakes when the indictment was first handed up in the first place -- but maybe even whether or Democrats obtain a super-majority in the Senate able to overcome Republican filibusters. Given how weak the prosecution has been up to this point, I truly believe someone on high may have put pressure on this case. Really, would anyone be surprised if this happened with this Justice Department, easily the most political DOJ in modern history? I will concede, however, that because this case came to trial so fast -- because Stevens' required an incredibly speedy trial almost unprecedented in the annuls of public corruption trials -- the prosecution might not have been fully prepared to argue the case a couple of months after the indictments were announcements. I still think there may be something to the politicization angle.

Nevertheless, how this trial winds down in the next 1-to-2 weeks will be of critical importance to the U.S. Senate picture, particularly if the 60-seat goal continues to look like an outside chance for Democrats. Pay close attention, as an acquittal (or perhaps even an outright dismissal) is looking much more likely than it did not too long ago. Such a result would be devastating to national Democrats.