Alaska House/Senate Update

It has been a while since we made a substantive post on the Alaska races we have been so interested in, so here's a quick update on what happens in the Senate and House races. In our last (short) post, Alaska was holding its all-important primaries.

Stevens-Begich

On the Senate side, the results were never in doubt. Ted Stevens weathered a crowded primary of nobodies to win easily, setting up a fight with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. While Begich has led this contest for many months, there is some reason for concern for Democrats, and like we said the day Stevens was indicted, Democrats should not assume (as many have), that this seat is a slam-dunk simply because Senator Stevens is facing seven counts in Federal District Court this month.

Two big factors are in Stevens' favor. First, despite the indictment, many Alaskans remain fiercely loyal to him, and to many who believe the charges are flimsy and a form of government persecution, the indictments have actually rallied support to the embattled Senator. Stevens is currently pursuing a fast trial that he has said he wants to be concluded before election day November 4. Should Stevens be acquitted of all charges, it would be a huge boast to his chances, and perhaps fault him to a win.

Second, having Sarah Palin on top of the ticket will definitely be a help to Stevens. While she and the Senator have never gotten along very well, they are not bitter enemies. An Ivan Moore poll released a couple of days ago showing Begich leading Stevens 49-46 (after being ahead by over a dozen in the last poll), well demonstrates that Palin's coattails will likely aid Stevens. This is bad news for Begich.

In the end, however, I think that while Palin's selection cannot be welcome to Mark Begich, it may not matter. Stevens' chances will lie with his trial. If he is convicted of any of his charges, he is almost certain to lose, Palin or no Palin on the ballot above him. Even in Alaska, Stevens can not explain his way out of a federal conviction. If he's acquitted? Something tells me that that eventuality is giving Chuck Schumer at least a couple shudders of concern.

Young?-Berkowitz

The House race is a bit more complicated. On primary night, nerd and idiot that I am, I actually stayed up until 5:30 am clicking the Alaska elections web site 10 times a minute waiting for results (Alaska is four hours later than on the east coast, and with hundreds of remote villages scattered across the enormous state, it obviously takes great time to get all of the results in a statewide election). By the next morning, with all but one precinct in, the incumbent, Don Young had crawled back into the lead over Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell after being down most of the night. But he only led by 151 votes or 0.16% out of around 90,000 votes cast.

These totals did not include around 25,000 uncounted absentee, sample, and questioned ballots, which were finally counted yesterday. With these new ballots added to the total, Young's lead increased to 239 votes, or 0.23%, with only a handful of votes left to tabulate.

While Young is in stronger shape than Parnell, a recount can be requested and conducted if the result is less than one half one percent, which is exactly what we are looking at here. A recount will likely keep the race from being resolved for at least another week.

In great part because of Sarah Palin, the Democrats have an enormous stake in what happens. Unlike Sen. Stevens, Young has had a toxic relationship with Palin, so she is unlikely to have great coattails for Young. The recent Moore poll belies this point: unlike Stevens and Parnell, whose showings improved in the polls with Palin's national elevation, Young's numbers against the Democratic nominee, Ethan Berkowitz, got worse, with him now down 17 points. Therefore, Berkowitz and Democrats are itching to face Young. Conversely, Parnell is Palin's lieutenant, and was urged to run in the House primary by Palin. Indeed, in the poll, Parnell now leads Berkowitz in a general election match-up by 11, after leading by only four points in the last poll. Parnell would likely be carried to victory in November by Palin if he can eke out a win in the primary.

However, given that the counting of the 25,000 new votes only moved 88 ballots into Young's overall lead, a recount is not likely to change the result. Furthermore, with Parnell becoming acting governor while Palin is on the campaign trail, and with the prospect becoming governor should Palin win with John McCain unquestionably on Parnell's mind, it is not clear he will push hard for a recount. This would be welcome news for the Democrats, but quite honestly I see that possibility as remote. What we are instead looking at is a recount, which will hurt the Republicans, help Ethan Berkowitz, and probably not change the outcome.