Wyoming: A Political Sketch

Continuing our unofficial series focused on the Red States of America, we are going to turn our attention to one of the handful of states which is even more conservative than Alaska: Wyoming. If one were to call the Last Frontier a bright red state, the Equality State is a dark red one. Like Alaska, Wyoming is almost completely dominated politically by the Republican Party, but that dominance is just about from top-to-bottom, with perhaps even fewer opportunities for Democrats to successfully seek high offices. Our interest in Wyoming politics is both personal and pragmatic. I guess that I am spending time looking at those gorgeous, picturesque states that are on my list to visit one day; though I am probably not going to study Montana (in political terms; I would love to visit there too) in the near future. Politically, it makes sense to take a little time to look at Wyoming because its At-Large House seat will host a competitive election this fall with the incumbent opting for retirement, and with the Democrats putting up the same strong challenger who came within 1,000 votes of winning the seat in 2006, Gary Trauner. While Trauner is going to face very tough sledding to win this time in a presidential year, easily even more so than Mark Begich and Ethan Berkowitz, the race is still very interesting nonetheless.

Because this is the only real competitive Federal race in Wyoming this year, and win or lose the state is not undergoing any tectonic political changes on par with Alaska (via the VECO scandal and broader Democratic growth in the state legislature), there are not going to be four expansive posts on the state; rather, there will be only three, and they will probably be a bit shorter as there is simply less to say. This post will try to draw a wide-ranging geographic and political sketch of the Equality State, looking at some of the state's Republican-dominated political history. The second post will look at three past close races in Wyoming which provide invaluable insight into how a Democrat can win in the state (or in two of the cases, just barely lose): Trauner's 2006 contest against Rep. Barbara Cubin, Governor Dave Freudenthal's impressive win in 2002 to take the Governor's mansion, and the long-ago 1988 Senate race between United States Senator Malcolm Wallop and State Senator John Vinich. The third post will look at the House race this year and will try to gauge Trauner's chances through the prism of those close races. Hopefully, through these analyses, we can develop a clear picture of how Gary Trauner can hope to do this November.

Wyoming: A Broad Sketch

Let us start with a broad look at Wyoming, borrowing shamelessly from Wyoming's own homepage. Like Alaska, Wyoming is expansive, and is the ninth largest state, taking up nearly 100,000 square miles: it is 276 miles from south to north, and 375 miles from east to west. Wyoming is remote and small in population. In fact, the state is the smallest in America, with only about 515,000 people. Because the state is nearly entirely rural, the population is spread out throuhg all the corners of the state, but just over one-third of the people are concentrated in and around five cities: Cheyenne (55,000), Casper (52,000), Laramie (26,000), Gillette (24,000), and Rock Springs (19,000).

First admitted into the Union in 1890 -- making it the 44th state -- Wyoming falls where the Rocky Mountains meet the Great Plains. It is home to a host of beautiful mountain ranges, dispersed throughout the state. Because Wyoming has the second highest mean elevation in the nation, its climate can be very arid, dry, windy, and cold, even in the summertime. Some parts of the state have more extreme weather patterns than others.

While farming is still an important part of the state's economy, making up about 11 percent of its overall industry, its role has lessened in recent years, though farming hay, barley, sugar beets, grain, and wool and raising cattle, sheep, lambs, hogs, and pigs is prevalent in the state; indeed, over 90 percent of Wyoming is classified as rural. Today, Wyoming's economy is driven by two key sectors, the mineral extraction industry, and travel and tourism. Around 10 percent of the state's residents work in mining, nearly one-quarter for the government, and 8.5 percent in construction. As Wyoming is home to Yellowstone National Park, Grand Teton National Park, Devil's Tower National Monument, and Fossil Butte National Monument, it welcomes several million tourists into its borders every year, making it its second most-profitable industry. It is also home to several national forests including the Bighorn National Forest, the Black Hills National Forest, Bridger-Teton National Forest, Medicine Bow National Forest, Shoshone National Forest, and Targhee National Forest.

Wyoming's mining industry is probably the largest in the United States. It mines for coal, natural gas, coal bed methane, crude oil, and trona. It is the largest producer of both coal and trona in the United States, seventh for crude oil production, and second for natural gas production in the nation. (One of the drawbacks of relying so heavily on labor-intensive industry is that highly educated residents have a more difficult time finding fitting employment. As a result, a super-majority of graduates of the University of Wyoming in Laramie leave upon obtaining their degrees.)

Hunting in the state is both a way of life for Wyoming residents and one of its most popular sports. Numerous game fish populate the state's streams, rivers, and lakes, and the state is heavily populated by moose, pronghorn antelope, mule deer, bear, coyotes, bobcats, wild turkeys, sage grouse, and many, many others.

Despite the state's rural nature, Wyoming residents are by no means poor; in fact, the state's average median income of over $47,000 ranks 22nd in the nation, and the unemployment rate in Wyoming -- 3.2 percent -- is one of the lowest in the United States. Wyoming has no state or corporate income tax, nor does it have an inheritance tax.

Political leanings

Wyoming is an overwhelmingly conservative leaning and Republican-controlled state. Because of its small population, Wyoming has an even smaller number of votes. At the time of the 2006 elections, Wyoming had 263,083 total registered voters. Of that total

67,246 are registered Democrats (25.6 percent),
34,887 are registered unaffiliated (12.5 percent), and
162,952 are registered Republicans (61.9 percent).

Unlike Alaska, where the great majority of registered voters are unaffiliated, Wyoming is over 60 percent registered Republican -- an incredible number. Like Alaska, Wyoming's political leanings are impacted in large part, if not defined by its rural nature. Many of the state's residents are socially conservative, to be sure, but they also have a libertarian bent which abhors large Federal intervention into the state's affairs. With about 50 percent of Wyoming's lands being Federally-owned, there is certainly a sense of resentment towards the Federal Government in much the same way that Alaskans looked unfavorably at the Alaska Lands Act and the ANWR drilling issue.

Like Alaskans, Wyomingites should not be defined politically as a Red State because of deeply socially conservative views; though, many are socially, as well as economically conservative. Rather, Wyomingites' most salient aspect is their strong sense of individualism and their hatred of over-expansive Federal power. Looking deeper, whereas Alaskans have traditionally voted Republican because of a libertarian lean which resents the Federal Government's locking up of the state's resources for environmental which look silly to many in the Last Frontier, Wyomingites loathe Federal intervention period--they want to left alone and unaffected from Federal authority which restricts their lives and very way of life. This is an important distinction, and goes a long ways towards explaining not just the general outlook of Wyomingites, but why they vote so reliably Republican.

Indeed, unlike states in the Deep South, Wyoming's politics are not, despite any national misconceptions, defined by evangelical fervor or social issues. Yes, religion plays a big part for people in a state with a large number of Protestants and Mormons, but this has never set the state's voting priorities. Ditto hot-button social issues, at least perhaps until recently, as past state leaders like Senator Alan Simpson and his father Milward Simpson, who served as Governor and then Senator, were strongly anti-death penalty and pro-choice, but were still wildly popular. While this has arguably changed in recent years, particularly since the 1990s, it is telling on Wyoming's history and political identity, and makes clear that Wyoming should be pigeon-holed as a Red State in the exact mold of states like Mississippi or Utah. It has its own unique history which is valuable to understand and scrutinize.

The shift

As the Almanac of American politics astutely points out, Wyoming residents had large disagreements with policies instituted by the Clinton Administration which were perceived to hinder or restrict the liberty of Wyoming and its own interests.

Wyoming's Republican tendencies in the 1990s were strengthened by the Clinton administration's environmental policies—proposing grazing fee increases, the reintroduction of gray wolves into Yellowstone, proposing threatened species status on the black-tailed prairie dog, banning snowmobiles in national parks, the moratorium on road building in the national parks.

Yet, even before Bill Clinton was ever elected, Wyoming had been staunchly Republican for some time, but unlike Alaska, not for all its history. Prior to World War II, as the state was filled with railroad workers and coal miners in the southern half of Wyoming, Democrats were to able to win statewide office. The counties in the south along the Union Pacific line -- Albany, Carbon, Laramie, Sweetwater, and Uinta -- filled with laborers, made up the Democrats' base, while the even more rural counties in the north were occupied with reliably Republican ranchers and farmers. Unions used to hold much greater political sway in southern Wyoming particularly in Sweetwater County, where union miners were loyal Democrats. But when non-union trona mines and gas and oil refineries began to take hold, labor's influence and strength slowly died out, and counties like Sweetwater that used to be Democratic strongholds, are now toss-ups at best, and fairly well leaning to the GOP at worst. Furthermore, Republicans began to capitalize on anti-Federal rhetoric and their candidates began to run routinely on the cowboy image that had worked for many Democrats over the years. The wide expansion of the Federal Government that had begun under FDR had taken fuller shape under LBJ, at least in certain respects, and provided a wider opening for GOP candidates to exploit. They have been doing so successfully for decades since.

Wyoming has not elected a Democrat to the United States Senate since Gale McGee was elected to a third term in 1970, and to the House since Teno Roncalio was re-elected to his final term in 1976 before retiring. In 1979, when Dick Cheney took office, Democrats were completely out of Wyoming's congressional decade for the first time in many decades. Since then, Republicans like Senators Alan Simpson, Malcolm Wallop, Craig Thomas, Mike Enzi, and Dick Cheney have routinely won their House and Senate elections by wide margins, while, since 1994, Rep. Barbara Cubin has had considerable trouble several times, for reasons that wil be outlined later.

Admittedly, however, President Clinton provided the final acceleration for Wyoming's transformation. In 1994, when Senator Malcolm Wallop retired, popular sitting Governor Mike Sullivan, whose second term was winding down, ran for the seat, facing Wyoming's At-Large congressional representative Craig Thomas. Democratic Secretary of State Kathy Karpan ran for Governor to replace Sullivan, facing Jim Geringer. Facing the 1994 Republican Revolution, both were decisively beaten.

The current state legislature is overwhelmingly Republican, with seemingly no hope for a Democratic majority in either house any time soon. The State House has 43 Republicans and 17 Democrats, and the State Senate's constitution is even more lop-sided, with 23 Republicans and just seven Democrats. As was discussed in the Alaska series, this weak state presence for Democrats hurts at the Federal level, as Democrats lack viable candidates while Republicans have a well-stocked political bench.

In presidential elections, Wyoming has been one of, if the most Republican state in the Union. In the last 60 years, it has backed only two Democratic candidates for President: Harry Truman in 1948, and Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Wyoming backed Ronald Reagan 63-28 in 1980, and 71-28 four years later. In 1988, it supported George H.W. Bush 61-38. The election in 1992 represented a unique case, with Bush beating Clinton in the Cowboy State by 40-34, with third party candidate Ross Perot garnering 26 percent from the strongly-libertarian state. In the next race, Dole claimed a 50-37 win, with Perot just getting 12 percent. With favorite son (and former At-Large Congressman) Dick Cheney on the Republican ticket, Bush claimed 69-28 and 69-29 wins.

There is one bright spot for Democrats in Wyoming: the governorship. While Wyoming has not been ready to send Democratic representation to Congress over the last generation, it has been perfectly willing to elect Democratic governors, and four of the last five have been Democrats. The current Governor, David Freudenthal, is currently serving his second term in office, having won a record 70 percent in his re-election in 2006. Before Freudenthal, Republican Jim Geringer served for eight years, but prior to his election Democrats Mike Sullivan served two term and Edgar Herschler three (before the state barred Governors from serving more than two terms). Indeed, for 28 of the last 35 years, a Democrat has occupied the Governor's mansion.

Existing outlook

Given Wyoming's enormous Republican lean, there are not many places in the entire state where Democrats can reliably win in any election, regardless of the candidates' bases. Take the 2004 presidential race, for example. There, Senator John Kerry lost all but one of the state's 23 counties, Teton County. With the current exception of Teton County, not a single other county in the state will vote blindly for Democratic candidates in any election, particularly Federal races (and even Teton will vote Republican in many races). So in that sense, Wyoming really possesses just one base Democratic county, perhaps the lowest number of any state outside of Utah (though I have not studied this claim enough to say that it is entirely accurate).

What Wyoming's political demographics reveal is this simple truth: Democrats can only have a chance to win Federal office, and a slim one at that, where certain key circumstances are in place. First among them is that the Democratic candidate is not a regular Democrat: he or she must be a unique one that can appeal to Wyoming residents. This may seem like the most basic conventional wisdom, but it is important to keep in mind. Unless the Democrat -- someone like Dave Freudenthal or Gary Trauner -- can appeal to basic Wyoming views and sensibilities, they are dead in the water. Indeed, the recent and further past history is littered with dozens of well-meaning, but hapless Democratic candidates for House, Senate and other offices.

To get a better flavor of the state's political geography, let's take a brief look at each of Wyoming's 23 counties. As noted above, most of these counties are pretty much identical in that they are heavily Republican, but some are much more friendly to Democrats than others. The number in parenthesis is the county's size rank among the 23. These are very basic sketches, and in the second post, we will be breaking down county voting in the handful of elections we look at.

The counties

Albany County (6). Albany County is located in southern Wyoming, near the eastern corner of the state. This might be Wyoming's most Democratic-leaning county after Teton County. The county includes a handful of tiny towns such as Rock River, but its center is Laramie, the home of the main campus of the University of Wyoming, which makes up nearly all of the county's 32,000 people population.

Big Horn County (15). Big Horn County falls in the northern part of Wyoming in the center, touching the state of Montana. It is home to Big Horn National Forest, and it is one of the most Republican counties in the entire state. Its total population of around 11,500 is spread among a handful of small towns: Basin, Burlington, Byron, Cowley, Deaver, Frannie, Greybull, Lovell, Manderson and Shell.

Campbell County (4). Campbell County is a rectangular-shaped area in the northeast corner of the state. Its population is around 37,500, and its center and county seat is Gillette, which is home to about 20,000 people. Campbell County is also heavily Republican.

Carbon County (12). Carbon County is in the south central part of Wyoming touching northwest Colorado. The county seat is Rawlins, which makes up about half of the whole county's near 16,000 person population. Carbon is one of the more Democratic-leaning counties in Wyoming, but it is still conservative; it has voted both ways in big races over recent years.

Converse County (13). Converse County's population is approximately 12,000 people, with about half living in Douglas, the county seat. Converse County falls in the center of the state, but is closer to the eastern part of Wyoming. It is a Republican county, but not overwhelmingly so, and Democrats can and have done well in Converse while falling short of winning it outright.

Crook County (21). With a small population of around 6,000 people, Crook County sits in the northwest corner of Wyoming touching Montana and South Dakota. It is one of the top three most conservative counties in the state, if not the most conservative one of all. Unless the election is a Democratic landslide, it is pretty unwinnable for Democratic Federal or gubernatorial candidates. It is home to part of the Black Hills National Forest and Devils Tower National Monument.

Fremont County (5). Fremont County is one of Wyoming's larger counties, and is located in the central-western part of the state. Almost half of its 36,000 person population is based in Lander, the county seat, and Riverton. The rest is spread out among towns including Dubois, Hudson, Shoshoni, and others. The county leans to the Republican Party, but Democrats have a decent base there, and have done well there in several recent elections.

Goshen County (14). Goshen County makes up a small area in the southeastern corner of Wyoming just above Laramie County. It has around 12,500 people concentrated in Torrington, the county seat which has about half of the county's population, and Fort Laramie, La Grange, and a small handful of other towns. Politically, Goshen is pretty strongly Republican.

Hot Springs County (22). Hot Springs County is a very small area, a sliver of land really, sandwiched in the northwestern part of the state between Fremont, Park, and Washakie Counties. With a population of 5,000, the county seat is Thermopolis which makes up over 60 percent of the county's population. The county leans slightly towards the Republican Party, but Democrats have done well there, particularly Governor Dave Freudenthal (who is not coincidentally from Thermopolis).

Johnson County (18). Johnson County is in the northern part of the state, just south of Sheridan County at the Montana border. It has a population of 7,000 people, over half of whom are based in Buffalo. The county is very Republican.

Laramie County (1). Laramie County is easily the largest county in Wyoming. It is in the southern corner of the state, and its county seat is Cheyenne, the state capital, which is home to about 53,000 of the county's 82,000 citizens. Along with Albany and Teton Counties, Laramie is the most Democratic county in the state, and it votes for many Democrats in many races, state and federal.

Lincoln County (11). Lincoln County sits on the western end of Wyoming, and borders a small part of Utah and a large part of eastern Idaho. Along with Big Horn, Crook, and Park Counties, it may be the most Republican county in all of Wyoming. It has a population of close to 15,000 spread among a bunch of towns including the county seat Kemmerer, Afton, Alpine, and others.

Natrona County (2). The second largest county after Laramie, Natrona County is home to approximately 66,500 people, and Wyoming's second largest city, Casper, which encompasses just about 50,000. With Albany, Laramie, and Teton Counties, Natrona is the last of the Democratic-leaning counties. In elections, it sways to many Democratic candidates, who can often rely on it to produce decent margins for the right kind of office-seeker. It sits in the very center of the state.

Niobara County (23). The smallest county in the smallest state, Niobara sits in the center of Wyoming on the eastern border touching both Nebraska and South Dakota. Its population is a paltry 2,400 people concentrated in a handful of tiny towns. Like much of the rest of the state, it is strongly Republican.

Park County (8). Park County occupies the northwest corner of Wyoming, and just over half of it is made up of the Yellowstone National Park. With about 26,000 people within its borders, its county seat and largest city is Cody, the Rodeo Capital of the World and the hometown of the Simpson family, arguably Wyoming's most successful and lasting political family. Given its proximity in the northern part of the state, it should not be surprising that Park County is very heavily Republican.

Platte County (16). Platte County is a small slice of land sitting north of Laramie County and just west of Goshen County. It has around 9,000 people, and is a fairly-close county politically: it supports many Republicans, but it will side with Democrats in certain circumstances. It is also the home of former Governor Jim Geringer, the last Republican chief executive of Wyoming.

Sheridan County (7). Sheridan County sits in the north-central part of Wyoming, bordering Montana. Its population is around 27,000, and even though it is in northern Wyoming, it is often contested by strong Democratic candidates.

Sublette County (19). Sublette County is an oddly shaped county in the western part of the state bordering Teton, Lincoln, Fremont, and Sweetwater counties. Its population is around 7,000 people, and the county generally supports GOP candidates by overwhelming margins.

Sweetwater County (3). With about 38,000 people, Sweetwater County is the third largest county in Wyoming behind Laramie and Natrona counties. In the southwestern corner of the state and bordering northern Colorado, Sweetwater is a rare county that is will back strong Democratic in many state and federal races.

Teton County (10). The tenth largest county with around 19,000 people, Teton is easily the most Democratic county in all of Wyoming; this is clear when one considers that it was the only county in the state that was won by the ultra liberal and odious John Kerry. Situated in the northwestern corner of the state bordering Idaho, the county serves as a entrance way for tourists going to Yellowstone, the Grand Tetons, and elsewhere. The county seat is Jackson, which has slowly filled up with many wealthy Americans who have bought homes in Jackson and elsewhere to enjoy the beauty of the area.

Uinta County (9). With around 20,000 people, over which half of which live in Evanston, the county seat, Uinta County occupies the very southwestern corner of Wyoming. The county general leans to the right, but it has been well contested by Democrats in past races. It is even represented by a Democrat in the GOP-dominated State House.

Washakie County (17). Washakie County lies in the northern part of the state, sandwiched mostly between Hot Springs and Big Horn counties. It only has about 8,300 people, most of whom live in Worland, the county seat. It leans to the right, but not heavily so, at least in comparison to the more Republican counties in the state.

Weston County (20). Situated in the northwestern part of the state, Weston County is a tiny square which sits on the South Dakota border. Like much of northern Wyoming, Weston is heavily Republican territory.

General conclusions

What can we draw from these small county sketches? Just about all of Wyoming, heck all of the state is Republican territory. It is very important to note that where we refer to a place like Albany County or Natrona County as Democratic-leaning, that description comes with a caveat. These counties lean only to the right kinds of Democrat, people like Dave Freudenthal or Gary Trauner. Democratic candidates for President like Al Gore or John Kerry do not fit that bill. Democrats running for President, by definition, are almost incapable of carrying any Wyoming county, even by the barest of margins, with the exception of Teton County, and that is only because of the unique movement into that region of the state.

But let's throw out the presidential candidates; they are pretty much irrelevant for this broader discussion as we all realize and accept that a Democratic candidate for President will not carry the Cowboy State. Sure, Barack Obama will likely do better in Wyoming than John Kerry and Al Gore did in their runs -- and this is something Gary Trauner is certainly hoping comes true -- but it is not really our main concern. What we are interested in is under what formula strong conservative Democrats running for House or Senate can win statewide.

A cursory glance at these descriptions yields several general conclusions. First, while the entire state is conservative, the northern part of Wyoming, which is more rural than the south, is even more Republican. Second, most of the counties are simply unwinnable for any Democrat running statewide for Governor or Congress. The trick for a good candidate, therefore, is to run up high margins in the big four -- Albany, Laramie, Natrona, and Teton -- while holding his own in places like Fremont and Sweetwater, and trying to just tread water in the most conservative places like Big Horn, Crook, and Lincoln counties, for example. As will be seen in the next post, this formula worked to perfection for Governor Dave, while falling just short for Gary Trauner and John Vinich. Third, as will be much clearer after the second post is completed, winning statewide in Wyoming in Democrat requires not just a great candidate and the right political views and personal temperment, but a great deal of luck. Given the incredibly harsh right lean of the state, even the perfectly executed victory formula and campaign can fall short, just ask Messers. Trauner and Vinich. In other words, everything can line up for the Democrats, and they can still lose to a crummy Republican candidate. That's a tough fact of political life here.

This does not mean that Democrats should just concede the state in every race, but rather just accept that barring a seismic shift of the kind we are seeing in Alaska now -- which, incidentally, may not even result in temporary, much less permanent Democratic gains in the Last Frontier -- Wyoming is not going to become a state that Democrats can even entertain winning on a regular or semi-regular basis in Federal elections. Rather, the best Democrats can do is learn and set themselves up for that rare race where they hit the triple-bank-shot.

In the next post, we are going to take these broader political lessons and examine them in the context of the handful of close races where Democrats actually won or came close to winning statewide in the Equality State. Specifically, the next post is more interested in three races: the 2002 Governor's race between Dave Freudenthal and Eli Bebout, the 2006 House race between Rep. Barbara Cubin and Gary Trauner, and the fascinating 1988 Senate races between Senator Malcolm Wallop and State Senator John Vinich. In my view, these races provide outstanding lessons for Democrats running in Wyoming and provide a blueprint, albeit a difficult-to-execute-one for Democrats running statewide. The insights we extract from these races will help us draw conclusions that will be applied in the third post of this series to the House race this year between Gary Trauner and the winner of the August Republican primary, likely former State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis or first-time candidate Mark Gordon.