For Her Sake, Palin Better Win

Sarah Palin has a lot on the line next month. If the GOP ticket wins, she and her family head to Washington, where she will live in style around the Naval Observatory by Georgetown -- a long, long rustic way from Juneau or Wasilla. Her life will change forever -- much more so than it has simply by being the surprise veep pick in the first place -- and at just 44 years old, her political future will likely be bright.

However, if Palin loses, she could be in for a very rude awakening when she heads back to the Last Frontier. I think she will discover the enormous line between how a winner is received, and how a loser is treated. Widespread complaints in Alaska about her total stonewalling of the Troopergate investigation -- the same one she promised to fully cooperate in prior to being tapped by McCain, and her absolute abdication of the state government, essentially leaving it in the hands of hacks and lawyers paid for by Team McCain and the Republican Party have not been well-received at home. People are getting more and more upset, even if they are still behind Palin and the GOP ticket generally.

This is not to say that Palin is now hated back home: she is still wildly popular in her homestate, and she will ensure that McCain easily wins Alaska next month. But her popularity ratings have dropped from the mountain-high perch in the couple of polls we've seen (pollsters have basically stopped gauging the state since Palin was picked, as it is now no longer winnable for Obama). Furthermore, if coverage in the Alaska papers is any indicator, people simply not happy with how Palin and her team have conducted themselves back home since her addition to the Republican ticket.

What all this means is that Palin better win. If she loses, the bloom will be off the rose, and she will go back home increasingly vulnerable to attack from critics, both old and new. Sure, she will have a nice home-coming rally waiting for her, maybe even a parade, and certainly several days of a honeymoon based more on sympathy than pure admiration. The reason is that a winner is a winner, and a loser is seen as a loser, fair or unfair. It's the same in sports, as it is in politics. She will not be the same force as she once was, especially is McCain is walloped at the polls nationally. Palin will thus be very open to Troopergate, as well as an assortment of other lines of attack that her hungry enemies will be waiting to unleash on her.

In terms of her future, she will face re-election in 2010, a path she will almost assuredly take, as she needs a legitimate political platform from which to launch a 2012 presidential run, which is a foregone conclusion at this moment in time. Given the weakness of Alaska's Democratic Party -- even if Mark Begich and Ethan Berkowitz end up knocking off Ted Stevens and Don Young next month -- she will probably be able to win, though I would guess that it will be a little tougher than expected. Democrats will try their hardest to find a viable opponent, so she can say good-bye to a free ride electorally.

Perhaps more importantly, I see Palin becoming a national figure, and someone who is able to travel across the country to raise money and her profile in front of adoring conservative audiences. How this plays at home is anyone's guess, but I would imagine that it would not engender a lot of good will, particularly given the irritation of Alaskans right now. Palin will need to be careful abut mending fences before she goes back out on the longterm campaign and political trail, and I think she will realize this. But her emergence as a national figure in this way will complicate her 2010 re-election and her broader political future in Alaska.

I do not know if she fully realizes all of this -- given her arrogance, I doubt it -- but it is there. Watch out, Sarah, and I hope that solely for your sake, you don't have to head to Anchorage with your tail between your legs.