Obama's 50-State Strategy: Conclusions

Whether or not Obama’s 50-State Strategy is ultimately successful will not be clear until November. In the meantime, we can at least postulate on how Obama can best craft his unique strategy for each of the states. Many of the states present opportunities not just for Obama, but for Democratic Party candidates in the House and the Senate, and elsewhere. For the purposes of simplicity, many of the states can be effectively bracketed into six different categories.

The big swing states. Looking at Obama’s own campaign and the quest for 270, there are the quintessential swing states of Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. They are all hugely important given that each of them possesses a large cache of electoral votes. Clearly, Obama would have to focus extra-hard on these states (and others) even if he did not have such an ambitious electoral game plan. Whether any of these states have salient down-ballot races is a secondary consideration, given their importance in the Electoral College equation.

Safe blue states with important races. There are other states where Obama may already be strong without extra efforts, but are nevertheless worthy of potential big funds because they have key races. This list includes most notably Maine, Minnesota, and Oregon, where Obama’s coattails could potentially carry three new Democratic Senators into office. While Maine and Oregon are not on Obama’s initial 18-state list, he should look closely at the two for the purpose of looking to knock off Sens. Susan Collins and Gordon Smith.

Cheap red states where there is little to lose and a good deal to gain. Obama has also wisely decided to dip his proverbial feet into the water in a handful of red states to test his own appeal and ability to win their electoral votes. These states include Montana and North Dakota, and given the cheapness of their television markets, Obama’s gambit carries very little risk early on, particularly since McCain will probably be unable to spend in these states. If polls begin to show these states falling out of his reach, he always has the option of abandoning any large-scale financial efforts in these states.

Red states Obama may not be able to win, but where extra efforts could bare results for down-ballot Democrats and state parties. Where it gets interesting is in those traditionally Republican states where extra effort by Obama could help carry numerous Democratic House and Senate challengers over the finish line and into the Capitol. This list of states is checkered with many states seemingly out of Obama’s grasp including Alaska, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Wyoming, where Obama could conceivably spend funds in cheaper markets to benefit challengers in difficult environments. In states like Texas, Obama may not be able to swing immediate down-ballot races, but he could help Democrats’ efforts in winning back the state legislature before ever-important reapportionment comes down the pike.

Reach red states probably not worthy of great attention. There are those states the Obama campaign has indicated it will focus on, but probably should be careful with. In Georgia and North Carolina, for example, the large black populations are tempting from Obama’s perspective, but they are probably unwinnable states in the end, and the campaign should tread carefully in each. There are not great down-ballot races in these states that would justify heavy spending.

Safe blue or red states. Finally, there are those states including New York and New Jersey on one side, and Utah and Kansas on the other where the Obama should and probably will mostly ignore from a financial standpoint. These states are not competitive nationally, and do not have any down-ballot races worthy of financial attention. He will of course use his volunteer bases in these states to the best of their use.

Conclusion. As was noted in the first part of our analysis of the 50-State Strategy, each state has its own unique circumstances relating to Obama’s campaign and down-ballot races. Given the national environment and his own financial advantages, Obama probably has a special, once-in-a-generation-if-not-more opportunity to win and also carry into office with him manyDemocratic candidates from dark red states. But he also must be careful to not be too ambitious, and learn to cut states loose from his more ambitious plans where it appears that the state is lost.

As the campaign progresses, we will continually look at individual state polling and news to see if any individual dynamics have changed for the 50-State Strategy. This will in all likelihood continue to be one of the more fascinating political subplots in this election. Stay tuned.