Obama's 50-State Strategy: A State-by-State Analysis

Having looked at the general origins and motivations behind the Obama campaign’s 50-State Strategy, this third part will now go through each of the 50 states, one-by-one and assess not only how Sen. Obama should look to address each state individually, but how a strong effort in a state could also benefit current and future down-ticket races. In a sense, this posting will serve as a primer for the host of important down-ticket races occurring in each of the states. While Obama should rightly be concerned first and foremost with own race, as has already been discussed, his 50-State Strategy is unique in that it is also interested in positively impacting other races, wherever possible. Therefore, it is important to look at each of the states to see if there races or more general state political dynamics that Obama could potentially sway for his party brethren. Where there are significant down-ballot races that Obama could impact, that consideration should – and unquestionably does – play a large role in the campaign’s calculus.

Alabama. Alabama is a safe Republican state in this election, even though it is slightly over one-quarter black. Alabama is neither gaining nor losing a seat in the next census, so reapportionment is no an issue; besides, both houses of the state legislature are safely in Democratic hands. Interestingly, the state may have two close congressional races this November, as the result of surprise retirements by longtime Second District Republican Terry Everett and Fifth District Democrat Bud Cramer. While both districts are strongly Republican, it appears that the Fifth District will in all probability remain in Democratic hands, as the Republicans were unable to recruit a top-flight candidate to run. Conversely, the Second District has great potential. Even though it is very conservative (the District’s voters supported Bush over Kerry 67-33), the Democrats recruited the mayor of Montgomery to run under their banner. The District, which includes Montgomery and the Wiregrass region in the southeast part of the state, is approximately 30 percent black, so a massive turnout could aid Bright. Perhaps most interestingly, the Montgomery television market is 118th largest in the nation (known as the designated market area, or “DMA”), meaning that time may likely be bought fairly inexpensively. Likely Obama Influence: Obama is unlikely to spend much in the state, though black turnout is likely to be very high regardless. If his campaign is interested in expanding on his 50-State Strategy, it should consider buying airtime late in the Montgomery market, should the Second District race remain close in the fall.

Alaska. The Last Frontier represents one of the more interesting states within the Obama strategy. Alaska has made Obama’s initial 18-state target list for probably three key reasons: (1) while the GOP has dominated the state in local, state, and national elections since the 1960s, the state is tiny – with about 670,000 people. In 2004, Bush defeated Kerry 61-36, or in raw votes, 191,000 to 111,000. While it is easier said than done, the flipping of just 40,000 votes would have turned the state. (2) These votes, and more importantly, this large percentage, could possibly be flipped if Democrats were to invest heavily in the state. This is a bit more doable, when you consider that the Anchorage television market, which encompasses just over 60 percent of the state’s population, is DMA #150 in the entire nation, Fairbanks (13 percent of the population) DMA #203, and Juneau (11 percent of the population) DMA #207. In other words: television is extremely cheap. Given the current closeness of in the polls, Obama has nothing to lose with trying to see if a little seed money can move the numbers. (3) Alaska is home to two of the biggest races in the country this year. Anchorage mayor Mark Begich has been statistically tied or ahead of longtime Sen. Ted Stevens, and should fellow longtime Rep. Don Young survive his primary with the state LG, Democrats’ chances of taking the state’s At-Large House seat for the first time since 1973 are great. At this time, it appears that Young will lose his primary in August, but Begich’s chances of winning in November are good, and given the lean of the state, Democrats know they should pull out all of the stops to help Begich win. Likely Obama Influence: Potentially high. As long as Obama remains close, he will continue to buy television time. This makes complete sense. In the end, it is doubtful that he will win the state outright, but even if he keeps it within single digits, this would be immensely helpful to Begich. Indeed, in 2004, Democrats had a strong nominee in former Gov. Tony Knowles, but because Kerry never spent a dime in the state and ended up losing by 26 percent, Knowles could not catch up, and ended up losing 49-46, ensuring the GOP will hold the seat for decades. They should make the same mistake twice, and assuredly Obama’s campaign understands this. I think Obama will spend in Alaska for a while, though there is a good chance he will pull out if he falls behind by double-digits.

Arizona. On its face, Arizona is not a state that many Democrats would give a lot of thought to. While recent polls have had the state reasonably close at this stage, and a competitive result there would be humiliating to McCain, it is highly unlikely that Obama can win Arizona outright. Here’s the rub: the state may have three close congressional races – two controlled by first term Democratic Reps, and thus weaker incumbents (the Fifth and the Eighth), and a third one held by an entrenched Republican (the Third). Furthermore, both houses of the state legislature are held narrowly by Republicans, 17-13 in the Senate, and 33-27 in the House). A stronger than expected showing by Obama (Kerry lost the state by 11 point, but Gore only by six), could tip one of the houses. However, there are important considerations that should discourage strong participation by the Democrat. First, any advertising in the contested districts would be costly. The Third District includes Phoenix, DMA #12, the Fifth includes Scottsdale which is covered by the Phoenix market, and the Eighth covers Tucson, which is DMA #68. Thus, it would probably be very expensive to advertise in the state in order to influence the contested races. Second, while winning the state legislature for the first time in a long time would be tempting for the Democrats, a nonpartisan commission handles state redistricting, and it is likely to create at least one, if not two new GOP seats. Likely Obama Influence: Low. Given that McCain hails from Arizona, it is unlikely the campaign will look heavily at Arizona. Nevertheless, given the state’s rapid and continuing growth, if Obama is truly forward-looking, he should examine the state closely. It would be expensive, but even establishing a beachhead for Democrats would be valuable in order to make the state actually winnable in presidential elections down the road.

Arkansas. This is a state that is probably not made for Obama, as it is just 15 percent black, and nearly every office is already held by Democrats. Sen. Mark Pryor is actually running unopposed in November – while he was not likely beatable, that represents a terrible job by the NRSC as Pryor is in his first term – and the state is dominated by Democrats at the state and local level. Likely Obama Influence: Very low. There are many better targets for Obama than Arkansas this cycle.

California. It goes without saying that Obama will have an enormous organization here, paid and volunteer, but this is probably not a big focus of the 50-State Strategy. McCain will not have the money or the moxie to compete here, nor are there really any hugely competitive races to focus on. The open Fourth District is very conservative, though the 11th could be tight. The 26th (Dreier) and 50th (Bilbray) are unlikely to flip, despite Democratic hopes. Likely Obama Influence: Obama organization efforts will be enormous here, but in terms of fitting into the broader discussion of the 50-State Strategy, this is already a safe Democratic state.

Colorado. The 50-State Strategy was made for states like Colorado. In 2004, Ken Salazar won former Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell’s seat and his brother John won the formally-Republican-controlled Third District, and in 2006, Democrats took back both houses of the state legislature, the governorship, and the Seventh District seat formally held by a Republican congressman. This year, Democrats have as a good chance as they have had in years in actually winning the state in a presidential contest, they are favored to win the other Senate seat, and they have a shot at another House seat, this one the Fourth District held by GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave. Obama and his team seem to sense this, and that is why the state is on the 18-state list. It may be one of Democrats’ most obvious targets this year, though it will certainly be tough and the state is not a blue state by any stretch of the imagination as it includes heavily Republican enclaves both inside and outside of the Colorado Springs area. Ads will not come cheap, as Denver is the DMA #18, and Colorado Springs is DMA # 93. Likely Obama Influence: Expect the Democratic nominee to spend heavily in the state right up to the election. This will likely help turnout efforts for both Rep. Mark Udall (running for the Senate) and Betsey Markey (the Democratic candidate in the Fourth District). While early polls have shown Obama with an edge, the state should be close in the end. A strong win in the state could move Colorado into the blue realm for a while.

Connecticut. This is another safe blue seat, where spending by the Obama campaign will be minimal. Still, massive Democratic turnout could wash away New England’s final Republican congressman, Chris Shays of the Fourth District.

Delaware. See Connecticut, only GOP Rep. Mike Castle is not going anywhere no matter how well Obama does. Though, it is important to note that Delaware gets a lot of their tv from the Philadelphia market.

Florida. The Sunshine State represents a difficult problem for Obama. While it is clearly a national swing state, and one that Obama has included on his initial list, it will be harder to win than the other big leaners like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Since 2000, the state has begun to lurch more to the right, and whereas Gore and Bush were basically tied here, Bush topped Kerry by a robust five percent. McCain will be aided by popular Republican governor Charlie Crist, Sen. Mel Martinez does not come up until 2010, and while redistricting will be very important for a state which will gain two new seats with the next census, the state legislature is firmly in Republican hands. Likely Obama Influence: Obama will spend liberally in the state early on – it is simply to big to ignore, even if McCain is favored. Plus, there are strongly contested GOP-held seats in several districts here: the 8th (Orlando DMA #19), the 21st and the 25th (Cuban Miami DMA #16) and the 24th (Tidewater). Given recent indications that GOP dominance of the Cuban vote may be cracking, it will be very interested to see how Obama addresses this part of southern Florida. Look for Obama to pull out big resources here in the waning months if the state appears out of reach as television time here is expensive.

Georgia. The Peach State was one of the bigger stand-outs on Obama’s 18-state list. He is no doubt focusing on the state’s large (29 percent) black population as a means to carry the state. Obama’s belief that he can claim the state and its 15 electoral votes is bolstered by at least two recent polls showing the state extremely close. Democrats are contesting no GOP-held House seats; though Democrats are threatened in the 8th and 12th Districts, both of which have huge black populations. Likely Obama Influence: In this author’s opinion, spending a huge amount of money in Georgia would likely be a waste of money in the end. The state is definitely tempting right now given its size, but ultimately it is just too red to turn. Obama would need only unprecedented black turnout, but a stronger percentage of the white electorate than Democratic presidential nominees have gotten in the last few cycles. If Sen. Saxby Chambliss were in a closer race, I would probably feel differently, but he will coast to re-election. Black turnout in the state should already be astronomical, and I would be surprised if the campaign were to continue dumping big television dollars into the state come the fall.

Hawaii. Obama will not need to waste any money or effort in his birth state.

Idaho. Even in Democrats’ wildest dreams, Idaho would still go Republican. It is just too red, and the First District seat is probably thus unwinnable even with an unpopular incumbent (Rep. Bill Sali) on the ballot. Likely Obama Influence: Paid staff or no paid staff, Obama should spend much of anything here. Some states just ain’t flipping.

Illinois. Obama will not need to spend anything here to dominate. Furthermore, the huge turnout and tidal wave of support may well wash away Republican-controlled seats in the 10th, 11th, and 18th Districts, while protecting the newly-won 14th District seat.

Indiana. Indiana was another surprise addition to the 18-state list. Yet, this is another state where Obama should focus on considerably. The state has a governor’s race this year that should be fairly tight, with the incumbent Republican enjoying an edge. Furthermore, Democrats very narrowly control the State House. It is imperative for Democrats that they hold their edge in the house and perhaps take back the governor’s mansion, as Indiana may lose a House seat. If the GOP were to hold the executive chair and take back the State House, state Republicans would seek to eliminate one of the five House Democrats, probably either rising star and possible 2012 Senate candidate Brad Ellsworth in the Eighth District or Baron Hill in the Ninth. This is a big deal going forward, and increased presidential efforts here would no doubt help Democrats. Likely Obama Influence: Ultimately, this is unclear. While polls show the state close right now, given that the state has not gone Democrat in a presidential election since 1964, Obama may well abandon large-scale efforts here. However, it is very helpful that Indiana borders Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio – three states where Obama’s financial efforts will be large, particularly on television. Look for Obama to lose badly in the Fourth, Fifth, and Sixth Districts, but given the closeness to those states, do better in the First, Second, Third, Eighth and Ninth, and aided of course by some big efforts in Indianapolis in the center of the state.

Iowa. Iowa is a state Obama will spend big in, though there are no huge down-ballot races that may be impacted this year. Expect Obama to do very well here.

Kansas. This is another state where hope should give way to reality very quickly. Obama has no chance of winning here, nor is it entirely clear that Rep. Nancy Boyda would welcome his help given the conservatism of her Second District. Gov. Kate Sebelius’ strong support will mean very little in the end, probably even in the event that she were tapped to be the Democratic #2.

Kentucky. Kentucky is another state like Arkansas and West Virginia, where past Democratic successes should not give way to the inference that Obama can win. Likely Obama Influence: While Obama will likely do better than Sen. Kerry’s pitiful 40 percent showing in 2004, this is just not a hospitable state for the Democrat, and not one he should spend in. Those Democrats involved in tight races at the Senate level and in the Second District likely would not be helped much; though, Rep. Yarmuth in the Third (Louisville) will be aided by big black turnout in his District.

Louisiana. Obama probably cannot win the Bayou State, particularly in the light of the exodus of so many black voters from New Orleans out of state. Still, despite this, he should look to spend liberally here because the state has the one threatened Democratic Senate incumbent in Mary Landrieu, and potentially close House races in the Fourth, Sixth, and perhaps Seventh Districts. Fostering high black turnout here is critical for each of these races, and Shreveport (LA-04) is DMA #84, and Baton Rogue (LA-06) is DMA # 92, so Obama could spend a good amount in this markets, and with strong efficiency to the down-ticket races. Plus, the Baton Rogue and New Orleans markets also touch parts of Mississippi. Likely Obama Influence: My sense is that Obama will dip his toe into the water here – indeed, the state is on the 18-state list – to see how close he can keep it in-state. I would be surprised if this effort were sustained up to election day, however, given the redness of the state.

Maine. While some commentators have speculated that Maine is not in the “safely Democratic” column just yet, it is almost certain to support Obama by big numbers. That being said, Maine is a state Obama should look to invest heavily in for one reason: influencing the U.S. Senate race between popular Sen. Susan Collins and Rep. Tom Allen. For some time, this race has appeared out-of-reach for the Democrats, and at best, Allen is down high single digits right now. But the race is winnable if Collins’ favorable numbers can be pulled down below 60 percent (they are probably in the high 60s right now, if not the low 70s). In 2006, former Sen. Lincoln Chafee was defeated despite approval ratings between 60 and 65 percent, and in a non-presidential year. The state is certainly trending in the right direction: Gore carried it by five percent, but Kerry took it by nine. Obama should look to push hard in the state media-wise, as Augusta is DMA #76, and Bangor is DMA #152. If Obama could win the state by 15 percent, and Collins numbers can be brought down by Allen to fairly manageable rates, the seat could be stolen. Likely Obama Influence: Ultimately, it would be surprising if Obama invested heavily here. It is not on his initial 18-state list, and already many people – this author included – have written off Allen’s chances. But given the state’s electorate, Obama should make carrying Tom Allen over the finish a big priority for his 50-State Strategy, and if Allen’s numbers are still weak going into the fall, the campaign could cut its losses and move on.

Maryland. This is a safe Democratic state, with expensive media markets; therefore, not worth big money from the campaign.

Massachusetts. Obama should not spend a nickel here through November.

Michigan. This is an obvious one. Polls show the state being a toss-up, and one the Democrats should and need to win. Obama will spend heavily here throughout the general campaign out of his own personal necessity. Beyond that, there are strong reasons to spend here. Democrats have fielded strong candidates in the GOP-controlled Seventh and Ninth Districts, and they possess a real chance to win both of them. Going further, the GOP narrowly controls the State Senate, while the Democrats have a slim hold on the State House. Should Democrats flip the Senate, and hold onto the open governorship in 2010, they will control redistricting with Michigan slated to lose a seat in 2012. Following the partisan redistricting that came into effect in 2002 under the Republicans, Lansing Democrats are eager to return the favor. Likely Obama Influence: The Democrat will spend big here, and have a strong impact in flipping at least one of the two House seats, more likely the Ninth District. Whether he can change the State Senate too in unclear.

Minnesota. Minnesota will be one of the top targets for both campaigns: Obama will look to hold a state that both Gore and Kerry carried, and McCain will look to steal it as the margins in the last two presidential elections were strikingly close (two and three points, respectively). Early indications are that Obama is a decided favorite here, but given the state’s 10 Electoral votes, it is a state McCain will focus on, at least until he is no longer competitive here. While redistricting is likely to lop a congressional seat from the state’s delegation, this is not a huge issue for 2008 given that the state legislature is firmly in Democratic hands, and the next governor’s race is not until 2010. There is, however, a strongly competitive Senate race between Sen. Norm Coleman and Al Franken, where Coleman is an early favorite due to Franken’s missteps and past colored history. An enormous Obama showing in the state could well carry Franken to victory, and unfortunately for Democrats, the challenger is going to need all the help he can get against the wily Coleman. Further, there is a close race in the Third District where moderate Republican Jim Ramstad is retiring. The Third District, which covers the suburbs north and west of Minneapolis, should come out heavily for Obama, likely benefiting the Democratic candidate, Ashwin Madin. Likely Obama Influence: Despite the Minneapolis/St. Paul market ranking at a high DMA #15, expect Obama to spent heavily in the state throughout the election, as the state was close in the last two elections, and is hosting an important – and winnable election – for the Democrats. However well Obama does in the state will directly impact Franken, and Obama’s success here will be a gauge to see how far his coattails go in close Senate races.

Mississippi. The Magnolia State is probably one of the last places one would expect Obama to put any emphasis on. However, it is a state that, for a handful of factors, he should look closely at. No, Obama is not likely to carry the state in the end; it is just too Republican, and voting along racial lines is just too polarized here. But given the state’s enormous black population – nearly 37 percent of the state, the highest in the nation, its very cheap television markets, and its close Senate race between new GOP Sen. Roger Wicker and former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, it is a state worth investing in, albeit perhaps moderately. Let’s look at the state’s make-up. Obama himself reflected on the state, saying this: “Mississippi is 40 percent African American, but it votes 25 percent African American. If we just got the African Americans in Mississippi to vote their percentage, Mississippi is suddenly a Democratic state…” Indeed, if Obama were to run up black turnout to unprecedented levels, he could make the state competitive. The problem for him is that while Democratic candidates routinely get 90+ percent of the black vote here, Republicans usually win the white vote by nearly-equally lop-sided margins. Obama can likely raise black turnout, but he will have to find a way to make inroads with the white electorate. While he will almost surely do better that Sen. Kerry’s pitiful 15 or so percent, he would need to hit one-quarter of the white vote – very difficult indeed. Nevertheless, the state is worth investing in for its Senate race. When former Sen. Trent Lott retired last winter, Gov. Haley Barbour appointed then-Rep. Roger Wicker to the seat. Soon thereafter, former Gov. Musgrove jumped in as the Democratic candidate. While Democrats have not won a Senate race in this state since 1982, Musgrove presents perhaps the Democrats’ best Senate nominee since then. While he was voted out of office in 2003, he remains fairly popular in the state, has strong name recognition from his time as governor and LG, and his opponent, Wicker, is still unknown in most of the state. Plus, because the Senate election is a special election, party designations will not be on the ballot, probably helping Musgrove in this Republican state. This is all reflected in several polls which have shown the race as a complete dead-heat. If black turnout is unprecedented in Mississippi, it will unquestionably aid Musgrove, as well as Obama. Jackson, the capital (in the Second District, which is nearly two-thirds black), represents the state’s largest market, but it is only DMA #90, the Tupelo/Columbus region (around the First District, which is 26 percent black), is DMA #133, the Gulfport and Hattiesburg markets (in the Fourth District, which is 22 percent black) are DMA #168 and 184, respectively, and Meridian in the Third District (one-third black), is DMA #186. In sum, Obama could buy a lot of television ad time dirt-cheap throughout most of the state to drive up black turnout, and in turn benefit Musgrove. While I will not get into it much in this post, the fascinating First District special election this year to replace Wicker demonstrated the importance of high black turnout for Democratic candidates. In the race’s run-off on May 13, turnout in black counties exploded, clearly benefiting the Democratic nominee, who won decisively in a Cook PVI R+10 district. Likely Obama Influence: While it is unclear how much Obama will invest here in the end, it is a state that, surprisingly enough, he should dump good money in order to benefit Musgrove and the 50-State Strategy.

Missouri. Missouri will likely be a top target for the Democrats this year, as they believe they can vastly improve upon Sen. Kerry’s 46 percent showing and seven-point loss in 2004. Expect turnout to be high in St. Louis and Kansas City, which are DMA #21 and #31. The rest of the state may be harder to crack for the Democrat, and it unfortunately borders markets in states unlikely to go blue in November: Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas. The two open House races here – in the Sixth District in the northwest part of the state, and the Ninth District in the northeast, are both fairly conservative, and not as likely to be impacted by Obama, though his strength in the state would undoubtedly aid the Democrats in each district. Still, the down-ballot implications are not as great, particularly with the governor’s race looking very good for the Democratic nominee right now as it is. Finally, neither house of the state legislature is likely to flip to the Democrats. Likely Obama Impact: Obama will probably spend a lot here, but it is not as likely to impact any big down-ballot races, and in the end, it may be a hard state to flip.

Montana. A recent poll put Obama ahead in the state by a stunning five points. Should the state remain close, Obama has no reason not spend here, as the markets in Helena, Missoula, Billings, Great Falls, Butte, Glendive, and Bozeman, as well as in Bismarck, North Dakota, are some of the absolute cheapest in the nation. While winning the state remains a long-shot, Obama will also be helped by popular Gov. Brian Schweitzer’s re-election campaign, which he should win comfortably. It is worth noting, however, that there are no competitive down-ballot races (Sen. Baucus will win another term with ease), while both house of the state legislature are close (26-24 for the Democrats in the Senate, and 50-49-11 in the House), winning control there means less as the state has At-Large representation in the House of Representatives. Likely Obama Influence: Great, as long as he can stay close in the polls. It is a worthwhile investment, at least initially. Like Mississippi and others, even with cheap tv, this is a not a place McCain can afford to wade into.

Nebraska. Even with cheap TV markets here, Obama will not win Nebraska, and there are no close down-ballot races that he could conceivably impact. While the state gives out electoral votes to the winner of each district (plus two for the winner of the state as a whole), and Obama’s campaign has noted interest in playing in the Second District around Lincoln, I would expect his financial investment here to be very minimal.

Nevada. The Silver State will be a top Obama target. While Obama did lose the caucuses here to Hillary Clinton, the state should be close, and the Third District is going to be home to one of the closest House races in the nation. Obama could weight-in in Las Vegas (DMA #43), thereby impacting the state’s largest city and the House race there. The state legislature is also very tight, with Democrats holding the Assembly 27-15, but down in the Senate just 10-11. Control is very important, as Nevada is set to gain another House seat with the next census. With the 2010 governor’s race looking promising for Democrats, winning back control of both state houses would be big. The rest of the state is clustered around Reno and Carson City, which is DMA #110. Likely Obama Influence: Big, and worthwhile considering the state’s swing state status, and the close race in the Third District.

New Hampshire. Another top target. The state was one of the very few which flipped between 2000 and 2004, and is likely to be close again given McCain’s popularity here. Strong Democratic successes in the state in 2006 – with Democrats winning back the state legislature for the first time in nearly 100 years, plus both House seats – have likely set good groundwork for Obama to capitalize on. Popular Gov. John Lynch’s re-election will also be beneficial. The very competitive Senate race between Sen. John Sununu and former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen would likely get a big boast from a strong Obama showing in the state. One caveat is that media time in the state is expensive, as the southern part of the state – which includes nearly all of the state’s people – is covered by the Boston market which is DMA #7. Likely Obama Influence: Obama will, and should spend very heavily here. It is a key four electoral votes, it has a key House race, and probably a close House race in the First District where first termer Rep. Carol Shea-Porter will face a tough go from the former Rep. Jeb Bradley.

New Jersey. The state will be safely Democratic in the end, and is not worth heavy investment, particularly since it has no media market, and you must advertise in NYC (DMA #1) and Philadelphia (DMA #4) in order to hit the voters here. If Obama decides to spend much in Philadelphia, it would likely benefit the close race in the Third District in southern Jersey. Likely Obama Influence: Expect a big win here for the Democrat, but not much spending given the exorbitant cost.

New Mexico. Expect heavy influence here from Obama, given the closeness of the state in recent presidential elections. There are three key elections here in November: one for the open Senate seat, and two for the open seats in the First (Albuquerque) and Second (southern New Mexico) Districts. The Albuquerque/Sante Fe market is DMA #44, and would touch most voters in the state. Likely Obama Influence: Heavy, and worthwhile given the state’s closeness and the down-ballot races.

New York. The state is not worth any great investment from Obama.

North Carolina. To the surprise of some observers, including this author, the Obama campaign has made a high priority in the election. While no polls have given Obama a lead, he has remained remarkably close, and the state’s 21 percent black population makes the Tar Heel state tempting. Likely Obama Influence: Given the current closeness in the polls, I would expect strong spending early on, but it is likely to tail off if the margins widen. Obama should also consider the Senate race here, but the Democratic nominee is far behind right now.

North Dakota. See Montana. Given the relative cheapness of the markets in North Dakota, if Obama is indeed close as the internal polls supposedly show, he would have no reason not to dump some money here in Fargo and Bismarck.

Ohio. This is obviously the top swing state in the country, given both the remarkable closeness between the candidates, and its 20 electoral votes. Because the state has 12-different markets, Obama’s campaign can pick and choose those it wants to buy into in order to target a particular region or segment. Obama’s influence and spending here are likely to be massive.

Oklahoma. A waste of any resources or money. This is one of the reddest states in the country, and unlikely to be impacted by the 50-State Strategy.

Oregon. Oregon is going to be a key target for Obama, and he should be easily able to target voters through buys in the state’s various markets in Portland, Bend, Eugene, and Medford. He could also look to buy time in Boise and Spokane out of state, if he liked. Obama’s showing here will likely impact the race between Sen. Gordon Smith and Jeff Merkley, which is a key national race.

Pennsylvania. While there are not many down-ballot races worth attention, the state’s size and importance in the Electoral College make it a top target just about up there with Ohio and Michigan. Likely Obama Influence: Huge, but minimal for down-ballot races which are less competitive here this year than in 2006.

Rhode Island. Given the state’s safe status, and lack of down-ballot races, this is not a big target for Obama.

South Carolina. South Carolina should be in nearly the same class as Georgia: it is tempting because of its large (29 percent) black population, but likely out of reach given its conservatism. Likely Obama Influence: Minimal, if Obama is wise. His resources could be spent better elsewhere. If he really wants to reach for conservative southern states, then Georgia (because of its 13 electoral votes) and Mississippi (because of its close Senate seat and even larger black population) should be his targets.

South Dakota. Like North Dakota and Montana, this is a state Obama can afford to play in if he wants. Still, the state is likely even more inhospitable than the other two, and it does not have any close or attractive down-ballot races worth looking to influence. Likely Obama Influence: Little, if any in the end.

Tennessee. The state is just too red, and not black enough to merit strong efforts by the Democrats here.

Texas. Perhaps not surprisingly, Texas is a key target of the 50-State Strategy. Reflecting on the state, Obama’s Deputy Campaign Manager said: “Texas is a great example where we might not be able to win the state, but we want to pay a lot of attention to it. It’s one of the most important redistricting opportunities in the country.” What he was referring to was the fact that Texas is poised to gain up to four new House seats with the next census. Obama would clearly like to impact state legislative races, with the GOP holding a 20-11 lead in the Senate, and a more manageable 81-69 lead in the House. A strong showing by the Democrat could potentially help Democrats take back the State House. Additionally, Democrats have long-shot, albeit promising challengers to House incumbents in the Seventh and Tenth Districts west of Houston. Ditto Rick Noriega, who is the Democrats’ long-shot opponent to Sen. John Cornyn. Likely Obama Influence: Hard to say. Obama says that he is dedicated to the state, but it is very unlikely he could be competitive here when it is all said and done. If he is being straightforward about his 50-State Strategy, then Texas could see a big Obama pull. Plus, Obama’s army of volunteers here should be dispatched to Houston for the House races in the Seventh and Tenth Districts (should they tighten in the fall) and across the state where tight State House races might be occurring.

Utah. Obama will have little impact here in the most Republican state in the nation. He should not waste any energy or finances here.

Vermont. Ditto Utah, except reverse it: Vermont might be the most Democratic state in the union.

Virginia. Virginia will be one of Obama’s top targets. Unlike in most other states, he will be helped more by having hugely popular Mark Warner on the ballot. Obama will have to spend a lot to buy tv time for northern Virginia via Washington, DC, but it will be cheaper for the southern part of the state. Flipping Virginia in the presidential election would obviously be huge for Obama, and also helpful to Democrats interested in winning and holding both houses of the state legislature. Likely Obama Influence: Great.

Washington. Washington is unlikely to be close in the end, and so Obama probably won’t have to wade in here financially. Nor are there are noteworthy down-ballots races he could look towards impacting, except maybe the Eighth District east of Seattle.

West Virginia. This is another bad state for Obama, and one with no down-ballot races either. Not worth great money or attention from the 50-State Strategy.

Wisconsin. Given the state’s closeness in 2000 and 2004, Obama will wade in here, but in the end the state should go fairly comfortably to Obama, making late investments unneeded. Plus, there are no big down-ballot races (though the Eighth District may again be close).

Wyoming. While Wyoming is one of the most red states there is, Obama has made clear he will invest in the state with the hopes of flipping its At-Large House seat, which the Democrats lost by less than one percent in 2006. While Kerry lost here 69-29, if Obama could somehow get to 40 percent, it would undoubtedly help bring out more voters for the Democratic nominee, Gary Trauner. Given the cheapness of the markets in Cheyenee, Casper, and Billings, Obama could weigh in here and have a great impact. Plus, the state is also hit by the Denver market, which Obama will likely buy into in his Colorado efforts. Likely Obama Influence: Potentially great, and a worthwhile investment to take an unlikely Democratic House seat that is winnable.