Can Gary Trauner Win?

When I first began looking at the Wyoming landscape and the upcoming House race to succeed Barbara Cubin, I had very mixed feelings. While I liked Gary Trauner, and had incredible respect and appreciation for his 2006 campaign, deep down I did not feel Trauner would or could ultimately win in 2008.

However, after putting together the first two posts on this subject, my feelings have changed somewhat. I now believe that Gary Trauner can win, although he faces a very uphill race in November. While this change of heart is rooted in several factors, more than anything else I now see that Wyomingites will vote for a Democrat, even in a Federal race, albeit in the most narrow and unique of circumstances. Gary Trauner fits within those circumstances, and as a result he has a decent shot of winning this November.

The Republican primary

Trauner's opponent will not be known until the Republican primary is held on August 19. Four candidates are vying to succeed Barbara Cubin: Buffalo rancher Mark Gordon, former Wyoming State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis, retired Naval officer and 2006 Cubin primary opponent Bill Winney, and physician Michael Holland of Green River. While Winney won 40 percent against Cubin in the '06 primary, the race is a two-person affair between the political newcomer Gordon and Lummis.

A longtime fixture of Wyoming politics, Lummis was the presumed front-runner at the start of the race. Lummis spent 14 years in the state legislature, and after that she served two terms as Wyoming State Treasurer, an elected position. Lummis was one three finalists to receive the appointment to serve out the rest of the the late Senator Craig Thomas' term, but her past frosty relationship with Governor Freudenthal may have played a part in passing her over and tapping John Barrasso for the seat. After mulling a primary challenge to Barrasso (as the Senate seat is also up this year), Lummis announced she would run for the House instead after Rep. Cubin announced her retirement after serving seven terms in Washington.

Conversely, Gordon has no elective experience. A fairly wealthy businessman from his time as an executive at an energy company, Gordon chaired the Environmental Quality Council, an appointment bestowed by Governor Freudenthal. Gordon has also given to Democratic candidates including, ironically, a donation to Gary Trauner's campaign in 2006.

Still, some observers have been surprised by the strength of Gordon's campaign after it appeared early on that Lummis would easily win the nomination. A May poll commissioned by his campaign found Gordon leading Lummis by a wide 39-23. Personally, I do not buy the result, but Gordon's ability to spend freely is certainly eye-catching. Since the start of the campaign, Gordon has dumped at least $650,000 of his own money into the race, and has raised less than $200,000 from other sources. While he has not been able to raise much money independent of his fortune, in the end that may be irrelevant if he can spend enough to buy the name recognition he needs to overtake Lummis. By contrast, Lummis has raised $370,000, of which $70,000 was her own money. In their second quarter filings, Gordon reported just $69,000 cash on hand, while Lummis report $247,000 on hand, indicating that Gordon is burning through his money very quickly, while apparently Lummis is keeping her powder dry to save in anticipation of the general election contest (though her early calls for 23 primary debates -- one in each Wyoming county -- might be belay that Lummis has less confidence than her financial stockpiling may seem to indicate). By contrast to the two, Trauner has raised just under $1 million in the campaign so far, and as of his last filing, possesses a whooping $702,000 in bank, more than what both Gordon and Lummis have combined.

What this all means in terms of picking a GOP winner is difficult. Because Gordon has never run for any office, and was not well known in any other capacity in Wyoming, besides his gubernatorial appointment, his May poll numbers are difficult to believe, even though he has been spending heavily. Then again, if Gordon continues spending big over the next three weeks, he may well pull of the upset, especially because Lummis has not been spending much of her money in the primary.

Expect a Lummis win. I've been racking my brain trying to figure out who would be a better candidate for Trauner to face. The conventional wisdom certainly says that Lummis would be the stouter opponent given her long record of service in Wyoming and the statewide name recognition she has from her two successful runs for State Treasurer. However, a good argument can be made that Gordon would be a tougher opponent in the general election. Gordon has the ability to self-finance, and could end up dumping more than a million dollars in the general to match dollars with Trauner. Perhaps more importantly, given the change atmosphere permeating the national political environment, should Wyomingites head to the polls with a similar mindset, Gordon would represent a fresh face attractive to many voters. Given that the state is overwhelmingly Republican, a fresh-face Democrat versus a fresh-face Republican would probably end up in the latter's favor. This is certainly something to consider.

On balance, though, I think it would probably be better for Trauner to face Gordon. The name recognition argument is a huge one, and even if Gordon does end up spending close to one million to win the primary, he will still be pretty unknown to much of the state, as most people are not paying attention now anyway. Plus, Lummis is from Laramie County and could more easily eat into Trauner's crucial electoral base in the southern part of the state. In the end, while it would probably be to Trauner's benefit to face Gordon in November, I would not count on it. Expect Lummis to win the primary by a fairly solid amount in a few weeks.

What Trauner has in his favor

A Trauner-Lummis (or even Trauner-Gordon match-up) would not be a lost cause for the Democrat. Given his strong fund-raising and the wide name recognition he gained from his 2006 race against Cubin, he would have several advantages in his favor. Already, two polls have been released on the general race, pitting Trauner against Lummis, and the results were very encouraging for Trauner.

The first poll, done by Mason-Dixon for the Casper Star-Tribune, was conducted from January 18 to 21, and was released on January 27.

Trauner 41
Lummis 40
(MoE +/- 4)

This tiny lead came well within the margin for error. The poll found that Trauner had 80 percent name recognition (he had 76 percent at the time of the last Mason-Dixon poll conducted right before the 2006 election), and that Lummis was not far behind with 70 percent name recognition. According to the poll, nearly 90 percent of Democrats said they supported Trauner, while only 54 percent of Republicans backed Lummis, with 23 percent saying they would back Trauner and another 23 percent undecided. Independents were split closely, with Trauner leading 37-33. Finally, whereas 25 percent of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of Trauner, just 17 percent had an unfavorable view of Lummis.

While the poll was essentially tied, it provided some great pieces of information for Trauner. First, it shows that Trauner now has the high name recognition he lacked for most of his first run for the House in 2006. Indeed, the last Mason-Dixon poll in 2006 showed that while many voters liked Trauner, a great many also did not know him. As of January of this year, Trauner is already at 80 percent name recognition, and that should only go up.

Second, that Trauner is tied or has a slight lead 11 months out of the election is, by itself, an incredible thing. Remember, this is Wyoming, and Trauner has never won elective office. To be in such a good position at the very start of the campaign speaks volumes to his strengths.

Third, Trauner's cross-section of support is important. According to exit polls from 2006, Trauner won Democrats (28 percent of voters) 87-13 and independents (17 percent) 71-29, while losing Republicans (55 percent) 75-25. Right out of the gate, he seems to be doing as well among Democrats as before. If he can find a way to up his Democratic vote to 90 percent or more, it could provide a vital cushion. Given his good showing among Democrats this early, it is certainly doable. Similarly, while Trauner was losing the all-important GOP vote 46-23 in this poll, this showing is only two points shy of his end total in 2006. If he can start where he left off, and work that number up to maybe 30-35 percent, it would be crucial. Given the large number of undecided Republicans, that also appears possible. One point of concern might be the independent vote. To win November, he is going to need to at least match his 2006 71 percent showing. That Lummis is already so high with that vote should be of concern to Trauner.

Finally, even Trauner's 25 percent overall unfavorable rating is not too bad. Considering he is a Democrat in a Republican state, he should be pleased that that is his starting point.

The second poll showed similar results for Trauner. This poll was conducted by Research 2000 for Dailykos on May 21 and 22.

Trauner 44
Lummis 41
(MoE +/- 4)

The poll pegged Trauner's favorable/unfavorable rating at 52/31, and Lummis' at 49/29. It found Trauner winning the Democratic vote 85-11, Lummis winning the GOP vote 62-15, and Trauner winning the independent vote by 58-32. Here, Trauner is again running very strong among Wyoming Democrats, with the room necessary to get to 90 percent. Among Republicans, he is eight points behind what the January 2008 Mason-Dixon poll found, which is not great, but whereas only four percent of Democrats are undecided, nearly one-quarter of Republicans are undecided. This done not bode great for Lummis, as the GOP base is not yet energized behind her. While part of this may be because she is in a primary right now, she is the only candidate with high name recognition, and there is not a huge risk of Republican voters abandoning the ultimate winner in the general out of bitterness and running to Trauner. In terms of independents, Trauner's showing is stronger here than in January, but he should still be concerned with Lummis grabbing such a large chunk of that vote; he wants to win three-fourths of this segment of the populace.

Interestingly, this poll is nearly identical to the last 2006 poll which had given Cubin a 44-40 lead over Trauner in the days before their face-off, as well as the late 2006 poll which had given Cubin a 44-37 lead. Maybe this speaks to how many Wyoming voters remain undecided until late in the game.

The Research 2000 poll also found President Bush's approve/disapprove number in Wyoming at 47/53, and McCain leading Obama 53-40. We'll reflect on these results in a bit.

In sum, then, the polls provide a good deal of great news for Trauner, as both show him with very narrow leads early on. He is running great with Democrats (though he could use squeezing another five percent to get to 90 percent), but probably has work to do to move his numbers with GOP voters up 10-15 percent, and to jack up his slice of the independent vote to at least his 2006 showing of 75 percent.

Plus, there is one other thing these polls do not measure. Assuming a Libertarian Party candidate runs in November, and that appears likely right now, the votes he gets will most likely be votes that would have otherwise gone to Lummis (or Gordon). While the libertarian's overall percentage might be two to four percent, given the closeness of the last race (where the libertarian candidate Thomas Rankin ended up at four percent), this could prove crucial.

What Trauner has going against him

Unfortunately, not every thing is sunshine and buttercups for Gary Trauner. After all, he is still running in Wyoming. The challenges facing him are immense. Here are four of the biggest ones.

(1) Trauner has the misfortune of running in a presidential year. No, not a bad year for national Democrats; we all know that Democrats are riding a strong electoral wave right now given President Bush's national standing. But this is Wyoming, and John McCain will the state very comfortably. I feel pretty good that Obama will do better than Al Gore and John Kerry, who lost 69-28 and 69-29, respectively, for two reasons. First, Obama is probably more palatable than either Gore or Kerry, and second, Obama will not be running against a ticket with direct Wyoming connections (see Bush-Cheney). The late-May Research 2000 poll showing Obama only down 53-40 provides some further evidence to this effect. If Obama can lose 60-40, it would undoubtedly be more helpful to Trauner than if he lost by a Kerry-esque margin. Plus, that Bush is at 47/53 is amazing, and Bush is not beloved even in the second most Republican state in the nation.

Still, a presidential year is also bad because turnout will be much, much higher than it would be in an off-year election. Between 2000 and 2002, Wyoming turnout in the November election dropped 15.2 percent, and between 2004 and 2006, it dropped an even higher 25.8 percent. In a state where over 60 percent of voters are registered Republicans, the greater the number of voters actually turn out, the more Republicans will go to the polls. This is bad for any Democrat running statewide. In 2006, Trauner had the advantage of running without a Democratic presidential candidate sitting above him on the ballot. This year, he will have no such luck, and it can only hurt him. How badly will depend in large part on how much better Senator Obama does in the state compared with traditional Democratic presidential candidates. That 53-40 finding is certainly encouraging for Trauner, as is the pledge by Obama's Deputy Campaign Manager who explicitly said the campaign was considering investing resources in the state to help Democrats take the At-Large congressional seat. It would be immensely helpful for Trauner if Team Obama follows through on this promise.

Also, Wyoming is one state where Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr could get some votes. Now, I acknowledge that his campaign has been stagnant so far, and there is no way he can do as well as Ross Perot did in Wyoming in 1992 and 1996. But if Barr can run any kind of campaign, he might be able to siphon off some votes that would have gone to McCain. The down-ballot impact would be minimal, but it could only help the Libertarian Party House candidate, thus helping Gary Trauner.

(2) Wyoming's two Senate races could also hurt Trauner down-ballot. In addition to the presidential contest, 2008 will also host two U.S. Senate races. Mike Enzi's seat was scheduled to come up this year, but when John Barrasso was appointed to the Senate after Craig Thomas died, the law required that a special election be held to determine who would sit in the seat until its original full term runs out on January 3, 2013.

The problem is that both Enzi and Barrasso are basically running unopposed, facing very weak and unfunded Democratic challengers. This further compounds the down-ballot issues created by the presidential contest: whereas Cynthia Lummis (assuming she wins her primary) will have her name below John McCain, Mike Enzi and John Barrasso on the ballot, Trauner will be below Barack Obama and two no-name Senate candidates who are going to be trounced. This makes Trauner's mission of cobbling together a majority or winning plurality of votes that much harder.

(3) Trauner won't be running on the same ballot as Dave Freudenthal again. It is highly likely that Trauner got at least a small boast in 2006 by being below popular Governor Dave Freudenthal on the ballot. Freudenthal prevailed 70-30 in winning a second term in unprecedented fashion for a Wyoming Democrat. While Fruedenthal did not carry Trauner over the top with him, it would be hard to argue that Gov. Dave was not at least a bit helpful to Trauner's candidacy. This time around, Freudenthal is still in office to be sure, but his name will not be on the ballot.

(4) Unpopular Barbara Cubin is gone. In 2006, Trauner was running against a fairly unpopular, and nutty Member of Congress. As evidenced by her repeated weak electoral showings, Wyomingites did not universally love or respect Barbara Cubin. In turn, Trauner was able to build a good bloc of support in the GOP-heavy state. Had this race been a Cubin-Trauner rematch, everyone agrees, including many state Republicans, that Trauner would have had an excellent shot at victory. But with Cubin retiring and off the ballot, whoever the GOP puts up will be a more fresher face, and almost certainly not as disliked as Cubin. Conservative voters of both parties will therefore be more likely to feel comfortable voting for the Republican nominee -- just as they do in just about every other race. This creates a big challenge for Trauner.

Where Traunder stands

These areas clearly demonstrate that in many respects, Trauner faces an even tougher race this year than in 2006 when he was starting from scratch. While he has strong financial backing and high name recognition now from the get-go, factors outside of his control make his job just that much harder.

In order to win, Trauner should look squarely at the geographic results for 2002 and his own race in 2006. Specifically, he should focus his heaviest effort on the traditional base counties: Laramie, Albany, Carbon and Sweetwater. He did tremendous in Laramie (winning 58-38), and actually bested Gov. Dave's 2002 showing in Albany. With Obama on top of the ticket, he might be able to widen his margin in Laramie County. Trauner won Sweetwater (52-43) and Carbon (48-46), but not nearly by large enough margins, running behind Freudenthal's 2002 showing in both by seven and eleven points, respectively. These would seem to be the most fertile grounds for him to find new votes, and they should be two of his absolute biggest targets. Ditto Uinta and Platte counties, where again Trauner ran way behind the 2002 map. Holding onto his great margin in Natrona (55-42), and finding a way to maintain his surprising showing in Fremont (48-48) would also be big.

I am not advocating Trauner ignore northern Wyoming; such advice would be stupid. Trauner needs a certain level of support, even in the most rural areas, to win statewide. But, for the most part he did not run that far behind Freudenthal's 2002 numbers in many of these areas. With only a handful of exceptions, he ran one to five points behind 2002 in these ultra-conservative areas. Sure, he would have used those votes in closing his 1,012 vote gap, but I think that if you had to pick either Carbon or Park counties in order to find more prospective votes, Carbon is the answer. In other words, if Trauner can maintain the support he got in the rural areas and do better in Carbon, Sweetwater and Uinta, he might well find his margin of victory.

Finally, the one county were Obama will actually help Trauner will be Teton County, Trauner's home county. Trauner already won there 69-29, and given his higher name recognition this time area, an even better performance in this fast-growing county is not out of the question.

Of course, in a presidential/two-Senate-race year, this is easier said than done. But Trauner has already put in place the pieces to win statewide. All he needs it to build upon his showing in 2006, and squeeze some more votes out of counties that are much friendlier to Democrats than others. Naturally, not having Cubin off the ballot will hurt Trauner, but even at the start of the race he was already showing considerable strength in a general election match-up.

Needless to say, Gary Trauner can win this November. He is a unique Democrat in the mold of Dave Freudenthal, John Vinich, and Teno Roncalio. It is going to be very hard, but I would put the chances of Trauner as good. He has a shot, but hopefully he and his campaign have studied the map and 2002 and 1988 races very, very closely, because they provide the best blueprint for a special Democrat to win in Wyoming.