Ugh

I am definitely on a cold streak, with my prediction of a Stevens acquittal turning out dead-wrong, and now it looks like Ronnie Musgrove might be on his way to a bad loss. Rasmussen:

Roger Wicker 54 (49)
Ronnie Musgrove 43 (47)

Since Rasmussen's last poll of this race on October 1, Wicker has shot up five points, while Musgrove has lost four points. What caused this movement? Well, several things, according to the poll. First, Wicker is winning the white vote 78-18, while Musgrove is taking the black vote 87-12. Both of these splits carry awful news for the Democrat, because, as we have discussed many a time, Musgrove needs about a quarter of whites, and over 90 percent of blacks to thread the needle. According to this result, he is not that close to either one.

Finally, the difference between their favorables is stark:

Wicker: 59 favorable/36 unfavorable (+23)
Musgrove: 47/50 (-3)

Ugly, ugly, ugly for the Democrat. I have to say I am at a loss here. While we always knew this was red Mississippi, Musgrove held steady for most of the year. A lot of things could have caused this: conservatives have decided at the last minute to stay in the GOP camp, Wicker's and the NRSC's attack ads may finally be having their desired impact, or maybe even those radio ads geared towards blacks may have worked to the extent that Wicker is getting that 5-10 percent piece of the electoral pie that he needs to deny Musgrove this constituency. Whatever it is, Wicker has shot up both his black and white support to levels that would make a Musgrove victory impossible, even if black turnout ends up being unprecedented.

Maybe my optimism for Musgrove has been misplaced for the last few months, but this is a huge drop, even for Mississippi. We will have to see what happens on November 4 for the final verdict. I still believe that regardless of who wins, the victor will end up with 51 or 52 percentage points.