Republican Panic

I wanted to highlight another article from the Washington Post this weekend, this one titled ,"GOP Strategists Whisper Fears Of Greater Losses in November." The article discusses growing fears among Republican leaders and strategists that the GOP could be headed to catastrophic losses in November's House and Senate contests. The article was similar to another one which was in Politico a couple of days ago.

The congressional campaign theme is one we've talked about a lot here, and it is obviously something that has fallen under the radar with the presidential contest sucking all of the oxygen out of the room. Nevertheless, the final congressional picture in January may well be as important as who is the 44th President, and the election of the latter will certainly have a huge impact on the former.

These fears have great basis in fact, and this is not mere hyperbole. Put simply: if the election were tomorrow, the Republicans would sustain enormous losses in the Senate, with the Democrats likely getting to the magical 60-vote threshold needed to override filibusters. Furthermore, Democrats would likely win over 25 new House seats, many of them in conservative, and generally GOP-held districts.

The presidential campaign certainly has consequences, and the more Obama rises and McCain falls nationally, the impact will be felt in dozens of races. Like we noted yesterday, McCain's decision to effectively pull out of Michigan does huge damage to two threatened GOP congressmen in the state, and similarly, Obama's strength in Minnesota may be the only thing that will push the flawed Al Franken to a victory in his Senate race.

The economic collapse and the bailout is also wrecking havoc on many Republicans. I have no doubt that this issue is what has brought the Senate races in Georgia, Kentucky, and Mississippi to ties over the last week. This is not to say that Democrats will win any or all of these races, or even that they are an even bet in any of these real tough contests, just that the fact that any races like this are even close 30 days out, is a terrible sign for the Republicans.

There are some silver linings, of course. First, if McCain can find a way to shape up and tighten this contest, and even if he ends up losing, he might have somewhat better coattails in numerous House races, for example, those big four in Florida we've mentioned that are all about tied right now.

Second, while the economy remains the biggest issue for most voters right now, the issue may get a little cooler, so to speak, within a month if the bailout ends up in soothing the markets. Certainly, the economy is going to be a huge issue no matter what in the election, but right now things are definitely a little hot, and this is a big detriment to Republicans, who are bearing the brunt of the blame for the crisis. Already, Team McCain is trying to turn the page away from the economy, and while it remains to be seen if these tactics will be largely successful, whatever success they have will impact down-ballot contests profoundly.

As it relates to individual races, I have to believe that contests like the Georgia and Kentucky Senate races, which have unexpectedly tightened in the last week, are being effected more than anything else by the economic crisis. Therefore, races like these -- i.e. the reddest states and districts -- will be incredibly hard for Democrats to crack, especially if the economy can make a quick, albeit temporary perceived recovery. However, other contests which have remained close for other reasons, are of great worry, and they are less likely to simply swing back to the Republicans in the next 30 days.

So pay close attention to the congressional and Senate polls and stories over the next month. If Republicans are unable to shake the economic tremors hitting voters, and incumbents remain under 50 percent in unmistakbly red districts, it will be proof positive that a tide is going to hit GOP-Land.