In case you do not want to read through every state, I am going to post our final predictions here at the top. Call it our abridged edition for those of you who don't have a lot of time to get to all of our thoughts. Enjoy.
Presidential: Electoral College -- 270 need to secure the presidency
Barack Obama: 359 Electoral Votes
(29 states + DC: CA (55), CO (9), CT (7), DC (3), DE (3), FL (27), HI (4), IL (21), IA (7), ME (4), MD (10), MA (12), MI (17), MN (10), MT (3), NV (5), NH (4), NJ (15), NM (5), NY (31), NC (15), ND (3), OH (20), OR (7), PA (21), RI (4), VT (3), VA (13), WA (11), WI (10))
John McCain: 179 Electoral Votes
(21 states: AL (9), AK (3), AR (6), AZ (10), GA (15), ID (4), IN (11), KS (6), KY (8), LA (9), MS (6), MO (11), NE (5), OK (7), SC (8), SD (3), TN (11), TX (34), UT (5), WV (5), WY (3))
If the election is a real blow-out, I could see Indiana and Missouri both going to Obama. Conversely, if it is tighter than expected, Montana, North Carolina, and North Dakota could go back to the GOP side. Either way, Obama has more than enough to get to 270.
Presidential popular vote
Barack Obama 53 percent
John McCain 46 percent
By all accounts this would be a landslide.
Senate Outlook: Democrats gain 8 seats
Democrats gain 8 seats--AK, CO, MN, NH, NM, NC, OR, VA.
*Minnesota is a total toss-up, and could go either way.
*Mississippi looks like it will stay GOP by a close margin, depending entirely on black turnout and how well Ronnie Musgrove can do with whites.
*Mitch McConnell will hold his seat in Kentucky on the weak favorable numbers of his opponent.
* Georgia heads to a December 2, runoff to decide whether Democrats get to 60 seats. Looking into my crystal ball, Sen. Saxby Chambliss survives the runoff, running on the theme of preventing complete Democratic control of the federal government.
Democrats 57
Republicans 41
Independents 2
One of these independents, Bernie Sanders of Vermont will continue to caucus with Democrats. I presume the Democrats will oust Joe Lieberman from his chairmanship, and he will enter the GOP caucus. As a result, for all intents and purposes, the Democrats would enjoy a 58-42 majority.
House Outlook: Democrats gain a net 31 seats.
Democrats will win the following 34 GOP-held seats:
AL-02, AK-AL, AZ-01, CA-04, CO-04, FL-08, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25, IL-10, IL-11, IN-03, *LA-04 (general is in December), MI-07, MI-09, MN-03, MN-06, NV-03, NJ-03, NM-01, NM-02, NY-13, NY-25, NY-29, NC-08, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, TX-10, VA-02, VA-11, WA-08, WY-AL
IN-03 and TX-10 would be the biggest upsets. Also follow CT-04, IA-04, ID-01, KY-02, MD-01, MO-09, NJ-05, NJ-07, OH-02, SC-01, TX-07, VA-05, and VA-10. Many of these will be good GOP wins, but some might yield surprises. Democratic wins in any of these districts (excluding CT-04 and NJ-07) will mean it will be a historically-bad night -- we're talking 40-seat loss territory -- for the Republicans.
Republicans will win the following 3 Dem-held seats:
FL-16, PA-11, TX-22.
Watch AL-05, AZ-05, CA-11, GA-08, KS-02, LA-06, NH-01, PA-12. Democratic losses in any of them might indicate that Democrats will not have as a good night congressionally as I am foreseeing.
Composition of the House on January 3, 2009
Democrats 267
Republicans 168
Note that this number presumes no party-switchers.
State-by-state predictions
Alabama (9 electoral votes)
President. This is no contest, even with the state's 26 percent black population expected to vote in huge numbers. Easy win for McCain-Palin. +7 electoral votes for the GOP.
Senate. Interestingly, this will be the least competitive Senate race of all the contests in the Deep South -- including Mississippi, Georgia, and Texas. Democrats lost all interest when the Democratic state agriculture secretary declined to run. Conservative incumbent Jeff Session will win a third term in runaway fashion. Republican hold.
House. Alabama has two competitive races this year, in the open Second and Fifth Districts. Despite its GOP lean (PVI R+6), the Fifth District will stay Democratic, with state Sen. Parker Griffth overcoming two-time candidate Wayne Parker in this northern Alabama seat. The main event is in the Second District (PVI R+13; Bush got 67 percent here in 2004) in southeastern Alabama. Democrats only have a shot here because they bagged Montgomery mayor Bobby Bright as their nominee. The popular and conservative Bright has a base around Montgomery, as well in the Wiregrass region in the southern part of the district where he was raised and where he has garnered considerable GOP support. Bright will squeeze out a victory in this nasty race because he will have strong Democratic support, heavy black turnout in his favor (the district is 29 percent black), and he will win enough "Bright Republicans. +1 House Democratic pick-up.
Alaska (3 electoral votes)
President. John Kerry got 36 percent here, and Al Gore 28 percent. Let's see if McCain-Palin (or for this state, Palin-McCain) can be held under 60 percent. I think they will, as former Democratic admirers of the governor are no longer big fans. In fact, I will go on the record saying Obama hits 43 percent (+/- 1). +3 electoral votes for the GOP.
Senate. I have written about this one way too many times. The facts are simple: Ted Stevens, Alaskan of the Century that he may be, was convicted of seven felonies. His favorables are now garbage with everyone except hardcore Republicans. Mark Begich is a great nominee for Alaska Democrats (probably their best one imaginable), but this race is not about him one bit. Still, he will be the first blue teamer sent to the upper chamber by the Last Frontier since Mike Gravel won in 1974. Let's see where Uncle Ted finishes. I say he gets around 45 percent, even though R2K says he's already in the 30s, with a tiny chance of pulling of a fantastic upset (which would lead to quick expulsion proceedings in the Senate to get Sarah Palin in there). +1 Senate Democratic pick-up.
House. Stevens' conviction has spilled over to bring Young's favorables down a little bit more (and today they sit at 39/60 after 35 years in Congress), but let's be real: Young has been down in every poll in this race for around a year, if not more. While he has lost some speed off of his fastball, he is a character the House will miss (as most members of Congress are about as interesting as shredded wheat without the milk). Ethan Berkowitz has run a strong campaign and made no mistakes, even if he lacks Young's penchant for crazy outbursts and sayings. The mission for Berkowitz is to find a way to win re-election in 2010 (likely) against Sean Parnell (with Sarah Palin running for a second-term). Note to Nancy Pelosi: put this man on Appropriations or Energy and Commerce immediately. +1 House Democratic pick-up.
Arizona (10 electoral votes)
President. I know this state looks tighter than it should, and that Team Obama has dumped a little money here in the end. McCain is also probably not as popular here now as one would imagine (R2K puts his favorable split at a mediocre 58/41). I just don't see this one flipping, unless we see a huge national landslide. Still, I think a six or seven point win for McCain is in the cards, an underwhleming and telling showing, to be sure. +10 electoral votes for the GOP.
Senate. No races this year, but as that R2K link shows, McCain needs to watch out for 2010 (assuming he were to run again; I believe he will not).
House. Arizona is actually a center of competitive House activity this year. Early on, Democratic freshmen Harry Mitchell (AZ-05, R+4) and Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-08, R+1) looked liked they might face tough fights, but Giffords has been coasting for a while, and after dumping $1.36 million into the Fifth, the DCCC now seems to think that Mitchell is safe too. Interestingly, the DCCC has dropped over $2 million into the Third to dislodge conservative icon Rep. John Shadegg, but no public polling has shown this one tight (a single Dem poll, by itself, is not great evidence). I think it was a bit of a reach myself, and Shadegg will win. But in the First District, home of the indicted Rep. Rick Renzi, Democrats will score a clear victory. Note to Republicans: if you have a seat with an indicted retiring congressman, do not nominate a extremist candidate in his place, especially if the district is marginal to begin with (which the First is, at PVI R+2). Dem spending here also topped $2 million. +1 House Democratic pick-up.
Arkansas (6 electoral votes)
President. This one has never been contested. As we have noted, Arkansas is safely Democratic at every stage, except at the presidential level. +6 electoral votes for the GOP.
Senate. Want a sign that this has been a bad year for Senate Republicans? First-term Democratic Senator Mark Pryor is running unopposed. Yes, really. Democratic hold.
House. There 3-to-1 Democratic congressional delegation will remain 3-to-1 in 2009. There are no competitive races here this cycle.
California (55 electoral votes)
President. I remember when in 2000, the Bush campaign actually wasted money here. Team McCain has run a poor campaign, but say this for them: they did not put dough into California. +55 electoral votes for the Dems.
Senate. There are no Senate contests here this year. Barbara Boxer comes up in 2010, and the big question is whether Arnold will challenge her. Stay tuned.
House. It amazes that a state with 53 House seats has only a couple of competitive races this year. This is the product of the incumbent "protection plan" agreed to and abided by by the two sides this decade. As a result, we see very little delegation turnover here. Look for that truce to end after the next census. In the meantime, Republicans had hoped to mount a robust challenge to first-term Rep. Jerry McNerney in the 11th District, but it does not look like the race will be particularly nail-biting. In the Fourth District, however, Democrat Charlie Brown is mounting a second race here after losing in 2006 by 49-46. With the disgraced Rep. John Doolittle retiring, few gave Brown much chance against a fresh candidate -- this author included -- especially against popular California conservative icon state Sen. Tom McClintock. Nevertheless, Brown has hung tough, and polling has been very strong for the Dem in an extremely red district (PVI R+11; Bush averaged 60 percent here). Additionally, McClintock's favorables are really mediocre (44/42 in the last R2K), perhaps as a result of him running in a district 400+ miles from his home. While DCCC spending in CA-04 has been somewhat conservative ($840 K), look for the Democrats to score a big upset and pick up the Fourth. (Btw, I would be extremely surprised if Democrats picked up the Third, 46th, or 50th Districts, as some scuttlebutt has said the races are close.) +1 House Democratic pick-up.
Colorado (9 electoral votes)
President. Al Gore lost by nine, John Kerry by five. This year, Colorado finally flips, becoming the Virginia of the West. Want a guess? How does 53-46 sound? +9 electoral votes for the Dems.
Counties to watch. No question here. Obama will rack enormous margins in Denver and Boulder counties, but follow the action in Adams and Arapahoe (just east of Denver, and both have a good number of Hispanics), Jefferson (southwest of Denver), Larimer, and Pueblo (39 percent Hispanic) counties. All of these were close in 2004, and Obama needs majorities in all of them to ensure victory.
Senate. Bob Schaeffer never stood a chance. And while I think NRSC picked a weak horse in Shaeffer in 2007, it probably would not have mattered. I stand by my belief that Mark Udall would have beaten retiring Sen. Wayne Allard, despite Udall's fairly staunch liberalism. His name is pretty golden in Colorado. Anyway, Udall has run a strong campaign and defined his opponent as an unethical extremist fairly early. The GOP attempts to paint the popular Udall as an unpalatable "Boulder Liberal" just never stuck. In 2004, Colorado had two conservative Senators. Come January 3, it will have two Democrats representing it in the upper chamber: one moderate (Ken Salazar) and one liberal (Udall). +1 Senate Democratic pick-up.
House. In 2003, Colorado's congressional delegation was 5-2 Republican, with Democrats merely holding their two safe seats (the Denver-based First, and the Boulder-based Second). Today, it is 4-3 Democratic, and the strong conservative and eastern-centered Fourth District will flip sides on Tuesday, making the delegation 5-2 Democratic next year. Incumbent Rep. Marilyn Musgrave got 55 percent in 2002, 51 percent in 2004, and 46 percent in 2006, all against under-funded opponents. That is not a series of good sign-posts. Musgrave has been a champion of right-wing causes -- she led the fight to amend the Constitution to ban gay marriage -- and she has been unable to shed that label in a year where many voters care little for gay marriage, and much for the economy. In a PVI R+9 district where Bush averaged 58 percent, a GOP congresswoman should be safe, and Musgrave is a textbook example of what will happen to you when you move too far right (or left) and forget to mind your district's concerns over your own. Note that the DCCC, Emily's List, and the Defenders of Wildlife has spend about $2.5 million to oust Musgrave, while the NRCC pulled out of here two weeks after quixotically dropping $890,000. At 5-2, the Dems will have maxed out in the delegation, as the Fifth and Sixth Districts are untouchable for them in any year. +1 House Democratic pick-up.
Connecticut (7 electoral votes)
President. Joe Lieberman's endorsement of McCain won't tip the balance for the Republican. +7 electoral votes for the Dems.
Senate. There are no Senate contests here this year.
House. There is a good one here, in the Fourth District where 10-termer Chris Shays will try to fight off an immense challenge and remain the last Republican House member from New England. Democratic spending has been very high here, but Shays has fundraised well, and has gotten some support of his own. Obama will win the district by a lot, but Shays is popular in his own right. Shays barely survived the last two cycles (52-48 in 2004, and 51-48 in 2006), but I said after he won in 2006 that he was a survivor. I still believe that, and while polling has been very tight, I think he will be one of the few GOP bright spots on Tuesday. Republican hold in the Fourth.
Delaware (3 electoral votes)
President. Come on. +3 electoral votes for the Dems.
Senate. Joe Biden is actually up this year, for a seventh term, no less. He will win easily, and then we can all act surprised when the seat is passed to his son, Beau, the state's Attorney General.
House. Former Gov. Mike Castle remains popular in the state, and he will win. Castle is the Republican in Congress who represents the most Democratic leaning district (current PVI D+7).
Florida (27 electoral votes)
President. This one is as tight as a snare drum, but Obama has held a consistent (albeit narrow) lead for the last month. Additionally, Obama is likely building himself a cushion, as Democrats have out-voted Republicans among early voters by about eight percent of the around four million early votes so-far cast. McCain cannot win if he loses the Sunshine State. C'est la vie. +27 electoral votes for the Dems.
Counties to watch. Follow results in Hillsborough (Tampa), Pinellas, and Orange (Orlando) counties, the fourth, fifth, and sixth largest counties in the state. Kerry narrowly lost the first two, while winning 50 percent in Orange. If Obama is winning all three, Florida is almost certainly turning.
Senate. There are no Senate contests this year. Stay tuned for 2010, when first-term GOP Sen. Mel Martinez will likely have rough sledding to win a second term.
House. While it has fallen under the radar, Florida has a bushel of competitive House races, of which we project five will switch hands. First, the GOP is guaranteed to pick up Mark Foley's old 16th District from disgraced first-term Democrat (and Hall of Fame dirtbag) Tim Mahoney. For Democrats, the 24th District west of Orlando held by conservative Rep. Tom Feeney is a near-lock to flip blue. I also see Rep. Ric Keller losing his Orlando-based Eighth District against wealthy self-financer Alan Grayson in a race few people have been following. The big events fall in and around Miami, where the Diaz-Balart brothers are in big trouble. In the 21st, Lincoln Diaz-Balart has been in one of the nation's nastiest races, and I think he will be ousted. In the neighboring 25th, Mario Diaz-Balart, Lincoln's brother, has been running slightly ahead of Democrat Joe Garcia, but he has been long-mired in the mid-40s. His race may be tighter, but I see Garcia prevailing, and in turn becoming a big Democratic star. For its part, the DCCC has dropped huge money into the 21st, 24th, and 25th, with the NRCC trying hard to save the Diaz-Balarts (while giving up on Feeney and Keller). If the national race is a real landslide, watch the 13th and 18th Districts, though, as things stands, I don't see them going from red to blue. +3 House Democratic pick-ups (four Democratic gains, and one Democratic loss).
Georgia (15 electoral votes)
President. That this state is even close is a story by itself. Black turnout has been 10 percent higher in early voting than it was for the whole 2004 presidential race. If it can hit even close to 35 percent on November 4, Obama will win Georgia's 15 electoral votes. As it stands, I think he suffers a close loss here, but if there is a national landslide, he stuns the world and takes the Peach State. I am calling this for McCain, but with some apprehension. +15 electoral votes for the GOP.
Counties to watch. Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, and Richmond are Obama's base counties, and he would need to hit 65 in Fulton, the high 70s in DeKalb and Clayton, and over 60 in Richmond to have any chance. Watch Bibb, Chatham, and Muscogee counties closely: they are swing counties for Georgia, and Obama likely needs to win all of them to be competitive.
Senate. I won't repeat much of what I have been writing about this race. For background check out these several links. Needless to say, given that Jim Martin is not a top-tier candidate and Chambliss had oodles more money than him, this race is only close because Chambliss has run a mediocre and uninspired campaign, and he made a foolish political move in voting for an economic bailout that infuriated his constituents. The closer Obama gets, the closer Jim Martin gets, but as it looks I think this race is headed to a December 2 runoff. If it does, Chambliss would be favored, but not by the overwhelming amount that you might think (unless this would be the Dems' 60th Senate seat, in which case, I can't see Georgia voters electing Martin). If a candidate does get to 50 percent Tuesday, I would bet it would be Martin, as the incumbent has been unable to seal the deal with a majority of voters. After Minnesota, this is the toughest Senate race to call, but since I have to make a prediction, I see neither candidate hitting a majority. The runoff will be bitter and expensive, but Chambliss will prevail. That being said, an out-right Martin victory Tuesday, like an Obama win, would not shock me. Republican hold.
House. Only the Eighth District is competitive, and Rep. Jim Marshall will once again survive in his PVI R+8 central Georgia district, probably with more than the 51 percent he got in 2006.
Hawaii (4 electoral votes)
President. Obama won't have any trouble carrying the state he grew up in. +3 electoral votes to the Dems.
Senate. Neither seat is up.
House. No competitive seats this cycle.
Idaho (4 electoral votes)
President. Gore got 28 percent here, and Kerry 30 percent. Obama will improve upon those showings, but not by very much. +4 electoral votes to the GOP.
Senate. The retiring Larry Craig's Senate seat is open, but the GOP will hold it with ease. Despite some Democratic protestations, this seat was never, ever going to be competitive; in fact, I have said for some time that Larry Craig would win re-election by double digits if he were running again. Republican hold.
House. Idaho residents of the First love their unorthodox representatives, but Rep. Bill Sali may be more unbalanced than any of his predecessors. Any other person would win this ultra-Republican seat with ease, but Sali barely won (50-45) in 2006, and it should be even closer this year. Democrats were jubilant with SUSA's poll showing Democrat Walt Minnick ahead 51-45, and Minnick is polling as good as Democrat could be expected to poll in this area, but I think Sali will eke out another close one in a seat that should not ever be close. The DCCC has dropped over half a million here, and inexplicably, the NRCC has had to weigh in with over $350 of its own. This one could well turn blue, but I am calling it for the GOP. Republican hold in ID-01.
Illinois (21 electoral votes)
President. No comment necessary. +21 electoral votes to the Dems.
Senate. Majority Whip Dick Durbin is up, and he will win re-election by lots of points. b.
House. Democrats will pick up the retiring Rep. Jerry Weller's swing seat in the 11th District after some scares early in the primary. In the Tenth District, Mark Kirk has done everything possible to hold his seat north of Chicago, but it is very liberal, and while Kirk is popular, I just can't see him surviving when Obama will likely win his seat by a big amount. Polling has been okay for Kirk, but unlike Chris Shays, this moderate is a goner. +2 House Democratic pick-ups.
Indiana (11 electoral votes)
President. Like Georgia, this one should not be close, but all fresh polls show a Hoosier State deadlock. This is such a conservative state, and it is a tough call nonetheless. Stats to give context: Bush got 57 and 60 percent here. Let's say 51-49 for McCain. In a national landslide, Obama wins the state. With some polls closing early here, this is one to watch with your dinner. +11 electoral votes for the GOP.
Counties to watch. Start with the state's biggest, Marion County. Obama needs to win very huge here to stand any chance. Ditto Lake County, where he needs to break 70 percent. Besides the big boys, follow results in Porter, St. Joseph's, and Tippecanoe, and Vanderburgh, fairly large counties Obama will likely need to be in the mid-to-high 40s to remain close statewide.
Senate. Neither seat is up this year.
Governor. As we noted this weekend, Mitch Daniels will easily win re-election, constituting one of the GOP's few bright spots Tuesday.
House. In the Ninth District, after a series of close races, Rep. Baron Hill will drop Mike Sodrel in their fourth straight fight. In the conservative Third District, incumbent Mark Souder finds himself in a close contest after running a mediocre campaign up to this point. Perhaps the first warning sign for Souder was an underwhelming 54-46 win in 2006, but he did not seem to take notice, and the DCCC has swooped in with over $600,000 for the Democratic challenger. I'm calling this seat for the Democrats in one of the biggest upsets of the night. Remember: Bush won 68 percent in this district in 2004. With the polls closing at 6 pm EST here, watch this one closely, as a Democratic win will portend terribly for the GOP. +1 House Democratic pick-up.
Iowa (7 electoral votes)
President. What is usually a swing state, is not this year. The state that propelled Barack Obama to where he is today will award him a huge victory. +7 electoral votes for the Dems.
Senate. Tom Harkin will find his first easy re-election campaign since the early 1980s when he was in the House. Democratic hold.
House. Hmm. The more I look at Obama's near-certain double-digit win in the state, the more I look at GOP Rep. Tom Latham's swing Fourth District and wonder...is an upset possible? Answer: yes. The race will be unexpectedly close, but with no money, I think the GOPer wins by a closer-than-anticipated margin. Republican hold in IA-04.
Kansas (6 electoral votes)
President. No contest. +6 electoral votes to the GOP.
Senate. Democrats had early hopes to give a good challenge to GOP incumbent Pat Roberts, and former Rep. Jim Slattery is no pushover, but Roberts is simply too popular. The big chance for Dems here will come in 2010, if Sam Brownback retires and Gov. Kate Sebelius decides to run. Republican hold.
House. Republican hopes to oust Third District Democrat Dennis Moore will fall flat once again. Moore is too entrenched right now. Second Districter Nancy Boyda scored one of the biggest upsets in 2006 in taking this red district (PVI R+7, Bush won here 59-39 over Kerry), and she has long been one of House Dems' most endangered incumbents, but she has not made any big mistakes in her campaign, and the NRCC has been unable to help her opponent enough. Democratic holds in the Second and Third Districts.
Kentucky (8 electoral votes)
President. In a state that is only seven percent black, this is one of those southern states where Obama has little chance to make many inroads. +8 electoral votes to the GOP.
Senate. There is no question that in the aftermath of his leadership and "aye" vote in support of the federal bailout that GOP Senate head Mitch McConnell is vulnerable. He can't seem to clear 50 percent, and his opponent, Bruce Lunsford is in striking distance. That being said, Lunsford has very high negatives, around equal to McConnell's. If the Democrats had recruited Crit Luallen or Ben Chandler, they would likely be in better shape than Lunsford. Many Dems have high hopes to "Daschle" Mitch, but Lunsford is just too darn unpopular himself. Republican hold.
House. After winning his first term in a tight contest in 2006, Third District Rep. John Yarmuth is safe in his rematch. The contest to watch is in the open Second District. While it has a PVI of R+13 (Bush got 65 percent here against Kerry), it has a Democratic history. The Democrats' nominee, David Boswell, is well known here and conservative, but he is a terrible fundraiser. The DCCC has spent $1.24 million here, including close to $400 K in the last week, so it must view the race as close. I just don't see a blue win here. Republican hold in the Second District.
Louisiana (9 electoral votes)
President. Because the state is about one-third black, Obama might be able to do better than expected, but an outright win is improbable, even with a national landslide. +11 electoral votes to the GOP.
Senate. Many Republicans want to believe that two-term Dem Sen. Mary Landrieu will be upset, and the NRSC has spent a good deal to prop up their party-switching recruit State Treasurer John Kennedy. Mary survives anyway. Democratic hold.
House. When crybaby sore loser Dem state Rep. Michael Jackson declared that he would run as an independent in this race (after losing to special election winner Rep. Don Cazayoux), many people including me felt that he would steal enough black support out of Baton Rogue to deny Cazayoux a key voting bloc he needed. When the GOP pushed the toxic Woody Jenkins from running again, Cazayoux really looked like he was in trouble. However, with Jackson raising basically nothing, Cazayoux looks poised to win his first full term in this R+7 district. In the open Fourth District, the primary runoffs are Tuesday, with the general in December. Longtime Caddo Parrish DA Paul Carmouche will win Tuesday, and I expect him to flip the seat to the Democrats in December, though a lot of superseding factors could intervene before then. +1 House Democratic seat (the Fourth), and one Democratic hold (the Sixth).
Maine (4 electoral votes)
President. Even with McCain's small investment in the rural Second District (Maine is one of two states that awards a single electoral vote ot the winner of its congressional districts, but two to the winner of the state overall), Obama will win Maine comfortably. I don't think those mailers featuring Todd Palin were a worthwhile investment for state Republicans. +4 electoral votes to the Dems.
Senate. Try as he might, Rep. Tom Allen just could not put a dent in Sen. Susan Collins' high popularity in Maine. Even Obama's coattails here will not save Allen. Congrats to Sen. Collins, who avoided being this year's Lincoln Chafee. Republican hold.
House. No competitive races.
Maryland (10 electoral votes)
President. Obama is going to win here in a landslide. +10 electoral votes to the Dems.
Senate. Neither seat is up this year.
House. The R+10 First District is competitive this year after the Club for Growth helped oust popular moderate GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest. The Dems have pounced with a moderate prosecutor as their nominee and giving him back support. Powerful Marylanders Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen have dropped $1.9 million into this race, in part because it is so close, and also because it is a personal crusade to steal a GOP district in their backyard. Gilchrest's endorsement of the Dem nominee has also been a boon. I just see this one turning -- it is too red. Republican hold in the First District.
Massachusetts (12 electoral votes)
President. +12 electoral votes to the Dems.
Senate. John Kerry will win another term. Democratic hold.
House. No competitive races this year. It's a 10-0 Dem blue delegation, don't you know?
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
President. McCain likely would not have won here, but his decision to publicly announce he was pulling out of the Wolverine State was sheer idiocy. +17 electoral votes for the Dems.
Senate. Carl Levin will bag a sixth term without breaking a sweat. Democratic hold.
House. For proof of the folly of McCain's very-public pull-out, look no further than the tight contests in the Seventh and Ninth Districts. Both district lean Republican -- the Ninth barely so, and the Seventh by a decent amount -- but each will flip sides Tuesday. The NRCC has given up on veteran Rep. Joe Knollenberg in the Ninth. In the Seventh, however, the party committee has spent heavily in order to save strong conservative first-termer Tim Walberg, spending $1.8 million for Walberg (along with other allied groups), to the $2.2 million spent by the DCCC and AFSCME. Dems and assorted groups have also spent $2.1 million against Knollenberg. When McCain abandoned Michigan, he left the two GOP reps wide-open, and they were instantly toast. On the plus side, the GOP should be thankful that the Dems don't have a big recruit in the Eighth District, because if they did, that seat would be gone too. +2 House Democratic pick-ups.
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
President. Once upon a time, Minnesota was seen as a swing state in presidential contests. Indeed, Al Gore won here by just 48-46, and John Kerry edged Bush in the state by 51-48. Obama will win here by at least 10 points, with a higher victory margin not out of the question. +10 electoral votes for the Dems.
Senate. As we have noted in several posts recently, the Senate race is so close it is scary. Averaged out, the last six polls -- all from the last week -- show Al Franken and Norm Coleman exactly tied at 40.5-to-40.5. Several key factors include where Dean Barkley finishes, and whether numerous apprehensive Democrats and women are able to hold their nose and vote for Franken. While a prediction here is an absolute shot in the dark given the closeness of the contest and the unknown impact of Barkley's presence on the ballot, it's what we do here. I think Obama's coattails will carry Franken over the finish line. Barely. How about: Franken 45.5, Coleman 44.5, Barkley 10? +1 Senate Democratic pick-up.
House. I sat down here ready to predict that first-term GOP conservative Rep. Michele Bachmann would survive her re-election campaign because of the Tom Reynolds Corrollary (i.e. that while her silly comments hurt her a good deal, there was just enough time to right herself in this red district). However, after looking over the news wires, I think Bachmann's foolish comments about liberals and Democrats remain an issue in her district (in part, courtesy of the DCCC and her opponent spending over $1 million here in the last 10 days), and will cost her the seat. In the swing Third District where popular Rep. Jim Ramstad is retiring, GOP recruit Erik Paulsen may be the best Republican challenger in the country, and the NRCC has actually spent close to a million to lift him to victory. I just think Obama's coattails here will be strong enough to flip the seat. That being said, if any GOP challenger wins this year, it will be Paulsen in MN-03. +2 House Democratic pick-ups.
Mississippi (6 electoral votes)
President. Obama is not going to carry Mississippi, no matter what black turnout turns out to be. He can't carry a state that is 37 percent black simply because he cannot garner any strong white support in the state. That being said, I think he will hit around 46 or 47 percent statewide, riding near-universal black support and enormous black turnout. Any Democrat cracking the mid-40s in Mississippi is an achievement in itself. +6 electoral votes to the GOP.
Senate. Regular readers know how I feel about this contest. I have probably written more about this contest than any other this year, excepting the presidential contest. Up until a week ago, I felt that Democrat Ronnie Musgrove was poised for victory, but the most recent polls have shown him slipping considerably, mostly due to lost support among whites. To win, Musgrove needs a quarter of the white vote, 91+ percent of the black vote, and huge black turnout. Right now, I think he gets the latter two, but he may fall short when it comes to the white vote. If he cannot hit 24-26 percent of whites, the only way he wins is if black turnout cracks 40 percent -- an unprecedented number (in 2004, turnout was 34 percent). Here's my guess at how the contest turns out: black turnout ends up at 39 percent, and Musgrove wins 21 percent of whites and 93.75 percent of blacks, with the final vote thus being Wicker 50.63 percent, Musgrove 49.373 percent. Along with Minnesota and Georgia, this is a Senate race I am going to follow from start to finish. Republican hold.
House. No competitive races. Democratic First District special election winner Travis Childers is safe in his strong Republican district.
Missouri (11 electoral votes)
President. Polls here are incredibly tight, but for whatever reason I do not have a great feeling for Obama winning the state. I think McCain will win very narrowly here. +11 electoral votes for the GOP.
Senate. Neither seat is up.
Governor. With Gov. Matt Blunt retiring, state Attorney General Jay Nixon will crush outgoing Ninth District congressman Kenny Hulshof.
House. Despite early hopes, the DCCC has thrown in the towel in the Sixth District, where GOP Rep. Sam Graves will win re-election. In the open Ninth District, however, Dem spending hit $1.4 million, to $750,000 from the NRCC. This makes me think that it is close, even though I don't have much polling to go on. I have long believed that the district is winnable for Democrats, but I wonder if Judy Baker is too liberal for the seat. Another problem is that Obama has no coattails here. Republican holds in the Sixth and Ninth Districts.
Montana (3 electoral votes)
President. President Bush won here by 20 and 25 points, but surprisingly McCain is only up about four points in all October polling. The wild card? Popular libertarian Ron Paul is actually on the ballot here, and some of the major polling did not include his name. I see him playing a spoiler and Obama winning an upset here. +3 electoral votes for the Dems.
Senate. Popular Max Baucus will coast to a sixth term. Democratic hold.
House. The at-large seat is not competitive.
Nebraska (5 electoral votes)
President. Nebraska is safely Republican, but Obama might have a chance to steal the one electoral vote awarded for the winner of the Omaha-based Second congressional District. Interestingly, his campaign has been making a play for the vote, and some Republicans are concerned. Frankly, I have no idea if Obama has a chance in Omaha, but I will play it on the conservative side and say McCain holds all five of the state's key Electoral College votes. +5 electoral votes for the GOP.
Senate. Why Scott Kleeb decided to run for this seat is beyond me. He has no chance against former Gov. Mike Johanns. Republican hold.
House. There is increased chatter that Second District GOP Rep. Lee Terry is in huge danger. He is certainly worried, as his "Obama-Terry" mailers betray concern. The DCCC has spent nearly $800 K against Terry, and the NRCC answered with $575,000 of its own. Like with Mark Souder in IN-03, Terry's first big warning was likely not Obama's emergence, but his 55-45 win in 2006 despite outspending his opponent 2-to-1. This year, he has a rematch, and money is more equal. Again, I am going with my gut here in picking Terry to survive a close one. Republican hold in NE-02.
Nevada (5 electoral votes)
President. As we have posted, early voting numbers in Clark and Washoe -- the state's two biggest counties -- seem to heavily favor Obama. Additionally, the Democrat's focus on the states more rural/conservative areas like Elko County may blunt his losses enough in the red areas of Nevada to ensure statewide victory. Nevada has only voted Democratic twice in the last several decades in national elections, but I think Obama scores a solid victory along the lines of 53-45. +5 electoral votes to the Democrats.
Senate. Neither seat is up this year.
House. Nevada is actually host to two close races this year. We've talked about Jill Derby. Despite her spirited campaign this year, like in 2006 I think she will fall short, as her improved showing in Washoe (on Obama's coattails) won't be enough to offset bad losses in the rural areas, with her ultimately falling to freshman GOPer Dean Heller by around 51-47 (she lost to Heller 50-45 in 2006). In the Third District surrounding Vegas, I think that Dina Titus will oust Rep. Jon Porter. Porter won by just one percent in 2006, and this year he is facing a better-known, better-financed opponent in Dina Titus. Titus has some baggage, but Democratic registration in the Third has exploded, and it should be enough to give her a small victory, somewhere along the lines of 49-45. +1 House Democratic pick-up.
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
President. Barack Obama has pulled away here. He will win a clear and decisive victory in the state despite John McCain's efforts. +4 electoral votes for the Dems.
Senate. My general thoughts on this contest are here. Needless to say that while I think Jeanne Shaheen is a fairly weak challenger, John Sununu cannot overcome his party affiliation this year in a state that has moved drastically away from his party. This is not the New Hampshire that elected him to the Senate in 2002. Prediction: Shaheen wins 49-43. +1 Senate Democratic pick-up.
House. Despite her weaknesses, freshman Dem Carol Shea-Porter is going to win a second-term over former GOP Rep. Jeb Bradley, the man she stunned 51-49 two years ago. It does not hurt that the DCCC has spent over two million bucks on her behalf. Democratic hold in the First District.
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
President. As a New Jerseyean, my biggest question is if Obama can best Al Gore's 16 point win the Garden State in 2000. I think he will, by a little. +15 electoral votes for the Dems.
Senate. Frank Lautenberg is up, and while he is not terribly popular (and he never will be), he will trounce the under-funded and unknown former GOP Rep. Dick Zimmer. At least the NRSC wised up this year, and did not waste money in New Jersey. Democratic hold.
House. Jersey's another state with multiple tight House contests, and Democrats have an opportunity to score some pick-ups. However, while Democrats have been confident in picking up the open GOP seats in the Third and Seventh District, I have never been hugely optimistic myself even though both are swing seats. In the Third, Dem John Adler has baggage from his tenure in the hated legislature and his ties to the Camden County Democratic machine. However, when it is all said and done, I think Adler, with longtime massive COH advantage, heavy DCCC spending, and Obama's presence at the top of the ticket will send Adler to Washington. The Seventh is tough for Dems, and the GOP recruited moderate state Sen. Leonard Lance, who is well know and well liked in this western part of this district. Dem nominee Linda Stender only lost here by one percent in 2006 against the now-retiring incumbent, Mike Ferguson, but I think Lance's name might do better than Ferguson's. That President Clinton appeared at an event with Stender last week is not a sign that a campaign is ahead. I never loved her chances, even in a R+1 district, and think Lance was one of the GOP's few good recruits this year, so I will call this one for the GOP. Finally, in the Fifth District, the race looks much closer than anyone imagined. The Fifth, at R+4 is one of the state's reddest, occupying much of the northernmost part of the state. Ultra-conservative Rep. Scott Garrett has faltered because (1) his opponent, blind rabbi Dennis Shulman has a compelling story and has run a strong race; and (2) Garrett's attacks on the rabbi that he would coddle terrorists and threaten Israel have turned off a lot of people. Shulman's problem is that while he can do well in the more liberal eastern parts of the district in Bergen and Passaic counties, he will have bigger trouble in more rural and Republican Sussex and Warren counties in the west. Additionally, the DCCC spent very, very little here, and only at the end. Ultimately, Garrett will survive a scare, but only because Jersey's lack of a central media market keeps people from realizing how right-wing the incumbent is. +1 Democratic pick-up in the Third District, and GOP holds in the Fifth and Seventh.
New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
President. The Land of Enchantment was won by Al Gore by just over 360 votes in 2000, and then by just under 6,000 votes by President Bush four years later. Initially, I thought this one would be closer, but Obama solidified himself here pretty early. Look no further than the early voting stats out of swing Bernalillo County, where Democrats are out-voting GOPers by 20 some points. Obama will win the state by a robust margin along the lines of 54-45. +5 electoral votes to the Dems.
Senate. St. Pete Domenici's retirement after six terms finally opened up this seat for Dems, and all it took was recruiting either Gov. Bill Richardson or Rep. Tom Udall, and the seat was their's. Big Bill said no, and while Udall waffled for a while, Chuck Schumer and others got him in, and the seat has been his from day one. Some GOPers are lamenting that Retiring First District moderate Rep. Heather Wilson would have given Udall a better race than Second District Rep. Steve Pearce (Pearce beat Wilson 51-49 in the primary), and while that's true, neither would have had a chance. Udall is too strong in the north (his home base around Sante Fe) and in Bernalillo County (Albuqueque), and will win in a landslide surpassing Obama's statewide total. +1 Senate Democratic pick-up.
House. The open Third District is safely Democratic. That's easy. In the swing First, Dems were elated that Wilson is leaving, as they just fell short against her every two years. In any other year, GOP recruit and county sheriff Darren White would probably win this contest, but not this year. The NRCC pulled the plug on him, and Dem Martin Heinrich will be the new congressman for Albuquerque with surprising ease. Occupying all of southern New Mexico, the Second is the bigger shocker. The district is very Republican, but the GOP nominee has run a poor campaign, and the Dem nominee, Harry Teague, has good roots and strength in both Democratic county Dona Ana, as well as ultra Republican Lea County. Teague's going to win, making the state's entire delegation blue for the first time in decades. +2 House Democratic pick-ups.
New York (31 electoral votes)
President. You can call this one before the polls even close. +29 electoral votes for the Dems.
Senate. Neither seat is open this year.
House. The GOP endured some bad losses at the NY congressional level last year, and they will only worsen Tuesday. The open seats in the 13th and 25th Districts, courtesy of Vito Fossella's two families, and Jim Walsh's retirement make them both shoo-ins for the Democrats. Add in the 29th District, the state's reddest, when Rep. Randy Kuhl will lose as well. I think the GOP holds the open 26th, despite their candidate's problems, because he is on three ballot lines while the Democrat is only on one. Still, with big DCCC spending here, an upset is not impossible. Otherwise, come January, the state's delegation will be 26-3 Democratic. +2 House Democratic pick-ups.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
President. When David Axelrod predicted many months ago -- I believe it was actually during the primary -- that Obama would put North Carolina in play, I openly mocked him to a friend of mine. This is why The Axe makes the big bucks and will the President's adviser, and I am writing a blog of amateur opinions. Once a skeptic, I am now a believer. Obama will win North Carolina by a 50-48.5 margin. +15 electoral votes for the Dems.
Senate. I was wrong too on this one. I felt early on that Elizabeth Dole was too popular to be beaten by a strong nominee, much less a random state senator. But the DSCC hit Dole with its best ad of the cycle, and defined the well-liked Liddy as ineffective in the Senate. She has run a poor campaign, and that she spent around one single week in the state over a year's time did not help her cause either. Dole's attack ad on her opponent for being "Godless" smacked of desperation, and was pulled quickly. Not a good sign. It looks pretty clear we will have U.S. Senator Kay Hagan. +1 Senate Democratic pick-up.
Governor. Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue will win a squeaker over moderate Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory on Obama's statewide coattails.
House. Eighth District GOP Rep. Robin Hayes survived here by under 400 votes two years ago. With huge black turnout (the district is 27 percent black), and Democratic spending here over two million dollars, he won't be so lucky this year. His loss will make the congressional delegation 8-5 Democratic. +1 House Democratic pick-up.
North Dakota (3 electoral votes)
President. Polling has been shockingly close here on and off. I am going with an uneducated gut feeling here, and picking Obama to score one of the night's biggest upsets in a state Bush twice won by 28 percent. +3 electoral votes to the Democrats.
Senate. Neither seat is up.
House. The at-large seat is now safely in the hands of Democrats.
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
President. I remember when Ohio was the center of the national political universe every four years. Team Obama's 50-state strategy has changed the dynamic a little, and made Ohio important, but no longer crucial to ensure a Democratic national victory. Obama had some early bumps in turning this state for him, but for the most part he has righted himself here to be more than competitive. He won't need Ohio to win, but I think he takes its 20 electoral votes by a very close margin, say 51.5-to-48.5. +20 electoral votes for the Dems.
Counties to watch. Follow Hamilton (Cincinnati), Montgomery (Dayton), and Stark (Canton) -- big counties that will give an idea if Obama has overcome some reluctance on the part of Ohio voters.
Senate. Neither seat is up this year.
House. Like Florida, Ohio's got four competitive races this year, all of them currently GOP-held. After heavy spending, the Democrats will flip the open 15th and 16th Districts, the latter by more than the former. In the Second, unlikeable Rep. Jean Schmidt finds herself in a close spot once again, even though her district is overwhelmingly Republican. The presence of a strong conservative independent candidate will sap her strength, but the Dems' nominee is pretty underwhelming, ensuring that Schmidt will survive, albeit by another close margin. Finally, the main event is in the Cincinnati-based First District, where Dems will once again to try to oust the conservative Steve Chabot, who seems to barely survive (Shays-like) every two years. The GOP has spent mightily to save him, but a good opponent combined with Obama's presence on the ballot will oust Chabot. +3 House Democratic pick-ups.
Oklahoma (7 electoral votes)
President. McCain will score one of his biggest wins of the night here. +7 electoral votes to the GOP.
Senate. GOP incumbent James Inhofe will be able to go to bed early. Republican hold.
House. No competitive races here this year.
Oregon (7 electoral votes)
President. It's hard to believe Al Gore only won here by just under 7,000 votes in 2000. Obama should win here by 15 points, if not more. Prediction 57-41. +7 electoral votes for the Dems.
Senate. We have to be fair: like Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, Jeff Merkley is not the best candidate in the world. And like John Sununu, Sen. Gordon is not hated in his state; in fact, I think Smith is probably well-liked by a lot of people here. But as with Sununu, he is going to lose because of the uppercase 'R' next to his name on the ballot. Susan Collins was seen early-on as the Lincoln Chafee of this cycle (a well liked moderate GOPer in a blue state destined to lose), but Smith deserves that title. +1 Senate Democratic pick-up.
House. Early worries in the open Fifth District were gone quickly. Democratic hold.
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
President. John McCains Alamo. He needed to find a state to play offense in, and he picked the Keystone State over Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and others. There is no doubt the state is tightening, and probably within single digits. Still, just about every poll has Obama steady and over 50 percent, and that is all he needs. John McCain will not make up his double-digit deficit here when Democrats outnumber Republicans by over a million votes. +20 electoral votes to the Dems.
Counties to watch. Bucks County in the Philly suburbs is vital for both me. Follow Chester County west of the city as well, as it is a swing area. Finally in the west, look at Cambria, Greene, and Washington counties. If Obama is losing here, that could be problematic and belay issues statewide.
Senate. Neither seat is open this year.
House. When you are a 12-term incumbent, and you find yourself mired in the high 30s and low 40s late in the campaign, you are in big trouble. This is where Democratic Rep. Paul Kanjorski has been for some time. DCCC spending has been huge to save him, but the GOP nominee is pretty well known and liked in the 11th District, so I see Kanjo falling. In the Third, Democrats will even things out by ousting GOP Rep. Phil English. There is talk that John Murtha is in trouble in the 12th for his "redneck" comments, but I will believe his constituents toss out the Defenses Approps chair when I see it. +1 House Democratic pick-up in the Third, and +1 House GOP pick-up in the 11th.
Rhode Island (4 electoral votes)
President. I wonder how big the margin will be here? Can Obama hit +30? He will probably fall a bit short. +4 electoral votes for the Dems.
Senate. Jack Reed is up this year. I forgot too. Democratic hold.
House. No competitive races this year.
South Carolina (8 electoral votes)
President. The big question here: what will Obama's percentage be, given the state's nearly 30 percent black population. Let's say 54-45 McCain. +8 electoral votes for the GOP.
Senate. Lindsay Graham will get re-election with relative ease. Republican hold.
House. Watch the First District, where the Democratic challenger is running a good race in heavy GOP district with a lazy incumbent. I don't think she wins, but follow it to see if we have a national 40-seat bloodbath for congressional Republicans on our hands. Republican hold.
South Dakota (3 electoral votes)
President. This isn't North Dakota, at least this year. That being said, McCain won't win by 20+ points here like Bush twice did. +3 electoral votes for the GOP.
Senate. Voters will reward the popular Tim Johnson with another six-year term. Democratic hold.
House. The at-large seat is safely in Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin's hands for as long as she wants (which may be until 2010 when the governor's mansion opens up).
Tennessee (11 electoral votes)
President. Like Kentucky, the black population here (~16 percent) is not high enough to carry Obama to an upset. +11 electoral votes to the GOP.
Senate. The very popular Lamar Alexander will win a second term by a big amount, even in this national environment. Republican hold.
House. None of the nine House races are competitive thus year.
Texas (34 electoral votes)
President. With some many great states to watch, I won't pay attention to Texas on Tuesday night, but I am nonetheless curious where Obama will finish. Is 45 percent out of the question? +34 electoral votes to the GOP.
Senate. Rick Noriega is a good candidate, he really is, but his inability to stay even close to John Cornyn in the money race probably made him an unappealing investment to the DSCC. The large map (with many Dem pick-up opportunities), and prohibitive cost of Texas' tv markets did not help the Democrat either. I don't think Noriega would have ever been able to beat the charismatic-less Cornyn, but I would have liked to see a closer race. Republican hold.
House. Three races to follow here on election night: the 7th in the wealthy Houston suburbs, the 10th near Austin, and the 22nd around Sugar Land. While I had hopes that Dem Nick Lampson would survive in the 22nd, it is just too red, and I now see him losing. In the 7th, Michael Skelly is one of the best challengers this cycle -- for either party -- but at R+16, this district is just too Republican, so I think Skelly will lose by a respectable margin (53-46). However, I am picking one of my upsets of the night in the 10th district. Rep. Mike McCaul won his second term with just 55 percent in 2006 against an opponent he outspent 20-to-1. Facing a well known challenger, I predict McCaul will lose his R+13 district Tuesday. +1 House GOP pick-up in the 22nd, and +1 House Dem pick-up in the 10th.
Utah (5 electoral votes)
President. McCain's best state. +5 electoral votes.
Senate. Neither seat is up this year (not that it would matter).
House. None of the three seats are competitive this year.
Vermont (3 electoral votes)
President. Not quite what Utah is to the GOP, but not far off either. +3 electoral votes to the Dems.
Senate. Neither seat is up this year .
House. The at-large seat is not competitive this year.
Virginia (13 electoral votes)
President. Democrats are a bit nervous as this state is tightening in the final days, but Obama still looks to be over 50 percent. Besides, when you haven't won a state since 1964, you can't expect a blow-out. Obama supporters will just have to settle for a victory in the realm of 52-to-46.5. +13 electoral votes for the Dems.
Senate. The question of the night here is whether Mark Warner can crack 60 percent. Answer: yes. +1 Senate Democratic pick-up.
House. The retiring Tom Davis' 11th District is a shoo-in to turn blue. I've had a lot of trouble in the Second District. GOP Rep. Thelma Drake did win with just 51 percent in 2006, and Democratic spending here is well over a million, but the district is "just" 22 percent black. This one could turn depending on the state's split at the top of the ticket. I am going to say the Dems win this one too. Finally, pay attention to the Fifth and Tenth Districts. Longtime congressman Frank Wolf should win, but if Virginia is a blow-out, this is a district that will benefit for Democrats. Ditto the Fifth, which is a bit redder, but looks to be closing late for the Democratic nominee. +2 House Democratic pick-ups.
Washington (11 electoral votes)
President. If John Kerry can by seven here, think what Obama will do here. Landslide Obama. +11 electoral votes for the Dems.
Senate. Neither seat is up this year.
Governor. Incumbent Dem. Gregoire wins by a small handful in this rematch of the infamous 2004 contest.
House. Poor Dave Reichert. He is well liked in his Eighth District, just east of Seattle. For a while it looked like he would hang on, but in the face of the Obama wave in the state, I think he's likely history. +1 House Democratic pick-up.
West Virginia (5 electoral votes)
President. Some noise showing a tight one here has given way to numbers that show a clear McCain win in the heart of Appalachia. Like Arkansas, West Virginia is strongly Democratic at every level except in presidential contests. +5 electoral votes to the GOP.
Senate. Longtime Sen. Jay Rockefeller will win. Democratic hold.
House. GOP congresswoman Shelly Moore Capito is one GOPer who will survive this cycle. Republican hold in the Second District.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
President. Wisconsin is going the way of New Mexico. After being decided by one percent or less in the last two presidentials, Obama will win decisively after McCain pulled up his stakes here. +10 electoral votes to the Dems.
Senate. Neither seat is up this year.
House. For some reason the NRCC spent a good deal of money against first-term Dem Rep. Steven Kagan in the Eighth District. I have no idea why, except maybe they had great polling. It looks to be a waste of money in the end.
Wyoming (3 electoral votes)
President. Welcome to the second most Republican state in America. Gore and Kerry both lost by 40 points here, and Obama will do better. I will be very impressed if he can hit 40 percent. Let's say 38 percent, which ain't bad for a liberal Democrat. +3 electoral votes to the GOP.
Senate. Both seats are up, and both of them are going to be Republican blowouts. Two GOP holds.
House. This is the toughest race for me to call in the country. I have written about Wyoming and Democrat Gary Trauner a lot. He has a very tall order with three Republicans scoring blow-outs above him on the ballot. Additionally, with Barbara Cubin retiring, Trauner has to face a fresh face who is well liked. Trauner has a problem with independents, who he won 71-29 last time. This one seems improbable, but I am going to say Trauner becomes the first Democrat to win a Wyoming House race since 1976 by the slimmest of margins. Follow the results in the southern counties: Laramie, Albany, Natrona, Fremont, Sweetwater, and Carbon: Gary needs to win all of them by good amounts to have a shot and offset his losses up north. +1 House Democratic pick-up.
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