Sunday, November 2, 2008
A Quick Thought on Dean Barkley
Watch Dean Barkley's vote total on election night. If the esteemable Nate Silver (and assuredly others) is right, and Barkley's support will peel down from he is polling now, Al Franken should win. Why? Barkley is getting more support from Democrats than Republicans right now. If his support level drops a good deal, those Democrats leaving his fold will go to Franken (while wavering GOPers will do the opposite), and there are more Dems with Barkley than Republicans. These Democrats may not love Franken, but they will have decided to stay in the blue camp if they are making a late move. An apprehensive Democrat will either vote for Barkley, or hold her nose and vote for Franken. Casting a ballot for Norm Coleman is mostly unthinkable. There will be some disenchanted Democrats who go for Coleman, but with Obama carrying Minnesota by double-digits, I do not think many late-breakers will go from Barkley to the Republican.
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It's tough to say, by best bet is Barkley's #'s don't come down much, 12% minumum. The fact barkley doesn't appear in position to win will no doubt peel away some, at the same time the alternitives are who they are, and it would be tough for someone thinking Barkley to differentiate Coleman and Franken to a level where they feel like they are wasting their vote. Barkley might actually see an election day uptick back to around 20 which probably is better for Franken then his support evaporating to single digits.
All it takes in this political enviorment is a fairly clean candidate. Franken was a mistake as the enviorment is for a Klobuchar like victory with or without Barkley.
It's a 50/50 bet right now I'd bet on Coleman, but then again I'm convinced McCain will at least keep us up past 9 in Minnesota.
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