Preliminary Winners and Losers

Here's a preliminary list of winners and losers from last night. Eventually, I am going to go through all of these separately.

Winner: Barack Obama. Duh. He won a convincing national victory, and racked up very impressive wins across the country. Congratulations, Mr. President-elect.

Loser: John McCain. A rough night for the Senator. The old warhorse was done pretty early when Indiana looked tight in the red counties. A tough loss for McCain, and I expect him to retire quietly in 2010, if not sooner.

Winner: Sarah Palin. Yeah, she lost and was getting a little teary-eyed last night, but she was a big winner, and she knows it. First, she is now a national conservative star, and her opportunities within the GOP are huge right now, as she has many admirers in high places. Second, she has her eyes on the newly-elected Ted Stevens' seat now, which I think she will get eventually.

Losers: Alaskans. In the upset(s) of the night, Alaska sent back to Washington Sen. Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young. Make no mistake: while Sarah Palin had big coattails here for the two old men, this was about Alaskans, or at least a lot of them, giving the middle finger to the Lower 48 states. Using some perverted logic, Alaskans have re-elected a freshly-minted felon and a man who stands a good chance of being indicted in the near future. For some reason, this was about showing independence from the other states and how a DC jury cannot "dictate" an election to the state. Last night, Alaskans flipped the bird to America in the form of Ted Stevens and Don Young. Considering the men, how appropriate.

Winner: Norm Coleman. The senior senator from Minnesota looks like he will live to survive another day. With all the precincts in, he leads Al Franken by around 570 votes out of 2.88 million cast, or by 42.03 to 42. Coleman, who was elected in 2002 mostly because the incumbent, Paul Wellstone, died in a plane crash a week before the election and the Dems pissed off voters with an over-the-top rally for Wellstone, has likely won a second term because an independent stole more votes from his opponent than him, and because Al Franken simply had unfavorables that were too high. Coleman his lived a charmed political life, that's for sure.

Loser: Al Franken. I realize, this race is going to have an automatic recount, but still. What a crappy candidate. In a national election year where Obama carried Minnesota by 10 percent, Franken still could not break out. Sure, he was hobbled a little bit by Dean Barkley's candidacy, but it should not have mattered. Any other Democrat, even one with half a pulse, would have won this seat against Norm Coleman. If you are trying to knock off an incumbent, you cannot have the race become about the challenger, which is what happened here.

Winners: Obama's state teams. Obama's teams in Nevada, Indiana, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and elsewhere did spectacular jobs. Winning Nevada is one thing, but to win by 55-43, is very, very impressive. And Indiana, which we lost by over 20 points in 2004, had not been won by a Democrat since 1964. Obama's campaign heads in these and other states should be well taken care of.

Winners: The New York Times and Daily Kos websites. Both of them had suburb election maps that were easy to use and quickly updated. Both of them have been excellent political sources all year, and seem to only get better. Love or hate Kos, his polling, data, and features are fantastic.

Loser: CNN's website. It was down all night, and you could not access down-ballot races at all. You have one night every four years to be on your game. Nice job, guys.

Winners: South Florida Republicans. In a bit of a surprise, the Diaz-Balart brothers survived, Lincoln easily and Mario in a close race. I thought both were toast, but I guess their victories mean that Florida's Cubans remain strongly in the Republican camp.

Losers: Central Florida Republicans. Both Reps. Tom Feeney and Ric Keller were ousted on the heels of the incumbents' personal problems (alleged infidelity for Keller and alleged corruption for Feeney). It did not help that Obama romped in and around Orange County (Orlando).

Winner: Mark Kirk. Kirk is the survivor of the night. Running in a district just north of Chicago, Kirk survived the tsunami with an incredible 55% of the vote. Kirk never stopped running after his narrow win in 2006, raising an incredible amount of money and bracing himself for Obama. I was wrong on calling the survivors with Chris Shays falling and Kirk surviving. A spectacular job by Kirk, who is now safe for life in this Democratic district.

Loser: Michael Jackson. The sore loser Louisiana state rep cost Democrats a Republican seat they will not win back for a long time. By splitting the black vote against the Democrat, I am not sure what point Jackson made, other than that cry baby sore losers cause more problems than anything else.

Winner: The Virginia Democratic Party. This was a big night for Virginia Dems. In addition to Obama carrying the state by a big five points, Democrats picked up three congressional seats, including two of defeated incumbents. If the party can hold onto the governor's office next year, it will have a bigger hand to draw a favorable congressional map in 2011.

Loser: The Virginia Republican Party. As good it was for VA Dems last night, it stunk for the GOP. Losing three seats is rough, though the Second and Fifth Districts are red enough that they can be won back. Worse was Senate nominee Jim Gilmore, who the state ensured got the nomination over the more moderate Tom Davis. Again, Davis would have lost to Mark Warner too, but not by the same embarrassing margins. Allowing Warner to get 64% of the vote in Virginia is an embarrassment. The party needs to shape up and find a way to win the governorship next year.

More soon.