Breaking Down Swing State Exit Polls: Gender

For the past several days, I have felt like I am drowning in data and information. But in a good way. With the election over, most political observers and watchers express a frustration in finding interesting stuff to talk about with the long campaign finally over. I beg to differ. I think that the data we now have is both rich and fascinating, and it provides a wealth of information about the election and the state of the nation's political landscape going forward.

With this sentiment in mind, I am going to begin a regular feature tonight by poring through select exit poll data. I pondered the best way to go about this, and what I decided to do was look, at least initially, at exit polling for a handful of the most critical swing states which decided the election. Tonight, I will begin this process by comparing national and swing state information regarding the gender break-down. I intend to do this on other splits including race, ideology, political income, etc. The states I decided to focus on include: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. Tonight, all of these will be covered except for New Mexico (I neglected to print out the state's data), which will be in subsequent posts.

I intend to use these posts to dig around Barack Obama's electoral coalition and see if we can tease out some of the more important (as well as hidden) reasons why Obama was able to capture these states. While some of the conclusions we can glean from individual data sets might not be hugely enlightening by themselves, they will make a lot more sense as we get to other exit issues. (In other words, try to read as many of these posts as possible to get a fuller picture of everything!)

National Exits

Male
(2004, 46%) Bush 55, Kerry 44
(2008, 47%) Obama 49, McCain 48
Turnout: Up 1% from 2004
Change: +5% Obama over Kerry

Female
(2004, 54%) Kerry 51, Bush 48
(2008, 53%) Obama 56, McCain 43
Turnout: Down 1% from 2004
Change: +5% Obama over Kerry

Analysis. As you can see, the gender split was barely changed between 2004 and 2008. Obama was able to post strong improvements over Kerry with both sexes. Let's see how these splits looked at the state level.

Colorado (Statewide result: Obama 53.5, McCain 44.9)

Male
(2004, 44%) Bush 53, Kerry 45
(2008, 50%) McCain 50, Obama 49
Turnout: Up 6% from 2004
Change: +4% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: -1% under overall national gains by Dems among men (+5%).

Female
(2004, 56%) Bush 51, Kerry 48
(2008, 50%) Obama 56, McCain 41
Turnout: Down 6% from 2004
Change: +8% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +3% over Dem national gains of with women (+5%)

Analysis. There is a lot to see here. First, interestingly, male turnout shot up 6%. Normally, this fact by itself would have been alarming for Democrats given that Bush won Colorado men by 8%. However, this was not case, as Obama improved 4% with men over Kerry, and double that with women, to score an impressive 15-point win with the fairer sex in Colorado. Note that Obama's improvement with men was just slightly under his overall improvement with males nationally while his improvement with the state's females matched his national performance.

Florida (Statewide result: Obama 50.9, McCain 48.4)

Male
(2004, 46%) Bush 53, Kerry 46
(2008, 47%) Obama 51, McCain 47
Turnout: Up 1% from 2004
Change: +5% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: At the same level as Democratic gains with men (5%)

Female
(2004, 54%) Bush 50, Kerry 49
(2008, 53%) Obama 52, McCain 47
Turnout: Down 1% from 2004
Change: +3% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: -2% under overall national gains by Dems among women (+5%)

Analysis. Obama was able to improve more with Florida men than with women. In the end, his overall wins with both were nearly identical. His gains among men were also in line with his national gains, while his gains with women fell 5% below his national improvement with women. This stands out for me. Obama obviously did more than enough to carry Florida, but his aides should take a close look at the state's women, as they did not take to Obama as much as women did nationally, at least according to the trendlines from 2008 compared to 2004.

Indiana (Actual result: Obama 49.9, McCain 49)

Male
(2004, 48%) Bush 62, Kerry 37
(2008, 47%) McCain 52, Obama 47
Turnout: Down 1% from 2004
Change: +10% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +5% over overall national Dem gains with men

Female
(2004, 52%) Bush 58, Kerry 41
(2008, 53%) Obama 52, McCain 47
Turnout: Down 1% from 2004
Change: +11% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +6% over overall national Dem gains with women

Analysis. In my view, I do not think there was a more impressive win on election night than Obama's victory in the Hoosier State. To win a state John Kerry had lost by over 20 points just four years ago is nothing short of incredible. It just goes to show candidates that you can't win if you don't play. Kerry did not play in Indiana, and got zip, but Obama played here, and picked off a lot of voters. As the numbers show, he made near equal gains over Kerry with both sexes. Just an amazing showing by the Democrats. McCain won men 52-47, and Obama won women by the same split, but because women made up a bigger portion of the turnout pie, Obama pulled out the slimmest of wins. Notice that Obama well surpassed his overall national gains with both genders. I think this shows that there was much more low-hanging fruit in the state than elsewhere that simply had never been reached by Dem presidential candidates.

I can't wait to go through the other state data here to see how Obama did it.

Nevada (Actual result: Obama 55.1, McCain 42.7)

Male
(2004, 48%) Bush 54, Kerry 44
(2008, 48%) Obama 51, McCain 47
Turnout: Same as 2004
Change: +7% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +2% over national Dem gains with men

Female
(2004, 52%) Kerry 52, Bush 47
(2008, 52%) Obama 59, McCain 38
Turnout: Same as 2004
Change: +7% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +2% over Dem national gains with women

Analysis. Nevada is a state where Obama did not make incremental gains, but he blew Kerry's numbers out of the water.

North Carolina (Actual result: Obama 49.9, McCain 49.5)

Male
(2004, 41%) Bush 60, Kerry 38
(2008, 46%) McCain 56, Obama 43
Turnout: Up 5% from 2004
Change: +5% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: Same as Dem national gains with men

Female
(2004, 59%) Bush 54, Kerry 46
(2008, 54%) Obama 55, McCain 44
Turnout: Down 5% from 2004
Change: +9% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +4% over Dem national gains with women

Analysis. North Carolina is another state Kerry ignored, but his 56-44 loss there was not nearly as bad as the one he absorbed in Indiana. As in Colorado, male turnout shot up 5% here, but it was still a 54-46 split. I think the big thing to take away from here is the Democrats' improvement with women. A nine-point jump is huge, and it was even slightly above Dems' overall gains with women nationally. Maybe having Kay Hagan and Bev Perdue on the ballot drove more women the Democrats at the top of the ballot.

Ohio (Actual result: Obama 51.2, McCain 47.2)

Male
(2004, 47%) Bush 52, Kerry 47
(2008, 48%) Obama 51, McCain 48
Turnout: Up 1% from 2004
Change: +4 Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: -1% under national Dem gains with men

Female
(2004, 53%) 50-50
(2008, 52%) Obama 53, McCain 45
Turnout: Down 1% from 2004
Change: +3% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: -2% under national Dem gains with women

Analysis. In Ohio, which was still pretty close in the end, Obama made very similar gains with both sexes, although his improvement with both was a bit below how well he improved nationally with both men and women. What this means, I think, is that Ohio did not see as big a jump for Obama as elsewhere, but it was enough to put him at 51%. This is state is still a swing state, and one Democrats will have to work hard for again.

Virginia (Actual result: Obama 52.3, McCain 46.8)

Male
(2004, 46%) Bush 59, Kerry 40
(2008, 46%) Obama 51, McCain 47
Turnout: Same as 2004
Change: +11% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +6% over national Dem gains with men

Female
(2004, 54%) 50-50
(2008, 54%) Obama 53, McCain 46
Turnout: Same as 2004
Change: +3% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: -2% under national Dem gains with women

Analysis. Obama's enormous improvement in Virginia with men is what won the state for him. An 11-point jump over Kerry -- who only got 40% here -- says it all. I am interested to delve into how Obama did with white men specifically. Virginia is not the state it was once, or even was 10 years ago.