Breaking Down Swing State Exit Polls: Ideology

In this post, we are going to look through swing state exit poll data relating to voter ideology. In the post following this, we will compare the results to the data regarding party voting.

National Exits

Liberals
(2004, 21%) Kerry 85, Bush 13
(2008, 22%) Obama 89, McCain 10
Turnout: Up 1% over 2004
Change: +4% Obama over Kerry

Moderates
(2004, 45%) Kerry 54, Bush 45
(2008, 44%) Obama 60, McCain 39
Turnout: Down 1% under 2004
Change: +6% Obama over Kerry

Conservatives
(2004, 34%) Bush 84, Kerry 15
(2008, 34%) McCain 78, Obama 20
Turnout. Same as 2004
Change: +5% Obama over Kerry

Analysis. This data is absolutely fascinating. For the most part, the break-down of voters' ideologies was identical to 2004, with a tiny bit of movement involving the percentages of liberals and moderates. This data provides a strong counter to the argument that the electorate that came out this year was vastly different from that four years ago. This isn't to say that the electorate is unchanged, or that it is less Democratic-leaning, just that in terms of how voters self-identified their ideologies, there is little difference. As you can see, Obama improved over Kerry almost equally among the groups, but most with the vital moderates in the middle who make up almost one half of national voters. This split shows perhaps better than any other information that McCain did not lose this election one front: he was pounded across the board.

Colorado

Liberals
(2004, 22%) Kerry 88, Bush 11
(2008, 17%) Obama 96, McCain 3
Turnout: Down 5% under 2004
Change: +8% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +4% over national Dem gains with liberals

Moderates
(2004, 43%) Kerry 54, Bush 45
(2008, 46%) Obama 63, McCain 35
Turnout: Up 3% over 2004
Change: +9% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +3% over national Dem gains with moderates

Conservatives
(2004, 35%) Bush 88, Kerry 12
(2008, 36%) McCain 79, Obama 18
Turnout: Up 1% over 2004
Change: +6% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +1% over national Dem gains with conservatives

Analysis. The big storylines here are Obama's big gains with liberals and moderates. Interestingly, liberal participation dropped 5% from the rate in 2008, but it did not impact Obama since he did so much better among both voters on the left, and moderates whose participation level 3%.

Florida

Liberals
(2004, 20%) Kerry 81, Bush 18
(2008, 19%) Obama 91, Kerry 8
Turnout: Down 1% under 2004
Change: +10% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +6% over national Dem gains with liberals

Moderates
(2004, 47%) Kerry 56, Bush 43
(2008, 47%) Obama 57, McCain 41
Turnout: Same as 2004
Change: +1% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: -5% under national Dem gains with moderates

Conservatives
(2004, 34%) Bush 86, Kerry 13
(2008, 35%) McCain 77, Obama 21
Turnout: Up 1% over 2004
Change: +8% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +3% over national Dem gains with conservatives

Analysis. For reasons I am going to get to into in much great detail in a separate post, Obama won the state of Florida on the margins by running up the score with his key groups and areas. This was not a state like Indiana where he won by improving statewide. In point of fact, Obama's numbers were below Kerry in many areas of the state, particularly in northern Florida. Here, we see that Obama ran up the score with liberals, and also made some good improvement with conservatives. Interestingly, Obama opened up almost no difference in his success rate with moderates with Kerry. Note that turnout numbers for each group were basically the same as 2004, making us wonder how much Florida's electorate is changing, if at all, and whether Obama won Florida because of a tremendous campaign plan instead of any perceivable leftward movement in the state.

Indiana

Liberals
(2004, 14%) Kerry 79, Bush 21
(2008, 20%) Obama 87, McCain 12
Turnout: Up 6% over 2004
Change: +8% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +4% over national Dem gains with liberals

Moderates
(2004, 43%) Kerry 50, Bush 48
(2008, 44%) Obama 60, McCain 39
Turnout: Up 1% over 2004
Change: +10% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +4% over national Dem gains with moderates

Conservatives
(2004, 42%) Bush 85, Kerry 14
(2008, 36%) McCain 83, Obama 16
Turnout: Down 6% under 2004
Change: +2% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: -3% under national Dem gains with conservatives

Analysis. Obama did not win the state of Indiana by appealing more to conservatives. He won the state because he turned out an incredible number of self-identified liberals and also did far better with moderates. Note that liberal turnout jumped 6% while conservative turnout dropped 5%. This plus gains among moderates made winning the state possible.

Nevada

Liberals
(2004, 18%) Kerry 84, Bush 14
(2008, 22%) Obama 87, McCain 11
Turnout: Up 4% over 2004
Change: +3% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: -1% under national Dem gains with liberals

Moderates
(2004, 47%) Kerry 55, Bush 43
(2008, 44%) Obama 64, McCain 33
Turnout: Down 3% under 2004
Change: +9% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +3% over national Dem gains with moderates

Conservatives
(2004, 34%) Bush 81, Kerry 18
(2008, 34%) McCain 77, Obama 21
Turnout: Same as 2004
Change: +3% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: -2% under national Dem gains with conservatives

Analysis. Obama's improvement with conservatives was only marginal. He did better with liberals, which meant a good deal more since liberal turnout relative to overall turnout was +4%. However, Obama won the Silver State by such a lopsided margin because of moderates. When you win two-thirds of voters in the center in a swing state, it makes sense that you take the state so overwhelmingly. This is a state to watch as it gets larger. If Obama can consolidate Democratic strength here -- Dems now control two of the three congressional seats, with a fourth to be added in the next census and the legislature -- that would be a big loss to the Republican Party on the state and national level.

North Carolina

Liberals
(2004, 17%) Kerry 80, Bush 18
(2008, 19%) Obama 87, McCain 13
Turnout: Up 2% over 2004
Change: +7% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +3% over national Dem gains with liberals

Moderates
(2004, 44%) Kerry 50, Bush 49
(2008, 44%) Obama 63, McCain 37
Turnout: Same as 2004
Change: +13% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +7% over national Dem gains with liberals

Conservatives
(2004, 40%) Bush 81, Kerry 18
(2008, 37%) McCain 84, Obama 15
Turnout: Down 3% under 2004
Change: -3% Obama under Kerry
Difference with national Dem gains: -8% under national Dem gains with conservatives

Analysis. The voting patterns in North Carolina represent some of the biggest extremes in swing states this year. Obama did better with moderates over Kerry to the tune of an enormous 13%, which was important since moderate voters remained 44% of the electorate. Not to mention big gains with Dems, who turned out in greater numbers this year. On the other side of the coin, conservative voting was one of the rare cross-sections where Obama's numbers were below Kerry's. Clearly, while less conservatives showed up this year (or likely, many identified themselves as moderates), there were plenty of voters who could not pull the lever for Obama. Whether you want to chalk this up to race is up to you, but I think that this was certainly an issue for some voters in North Carolina (as well as elsewhere in the South). There is little other explanation considering that Obama improved so heavily in a state Kerry lost by 12% four years.

Ohio

Liberals
(2004, 19%) Kerry 85, Bush 14
(2008, 20%) Obama 83, McCain 16
Turnout: Up 1% over 2004
Change: -2% Obama under Kerry
Difference with national gains: -6% under national Dem gains with liberals

Moderates
(2004, 47%) Kerry 59, Bush 41
(2008, 45%) Obama 61, McCain 38
Turnout: Down 2% under 2004
Change: +2 Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: -4% under national Dem gains with moderates

Conservatives
(2004, 34%) Bush 87, Kerry 13
(2008, 35%) McCain 76, Obama 22
Turnout: Up 1% over 2004
Change: +9% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +4% over national Dem gains with moderates

Analysis. Looking at these numbers, you need to keep two things in mind: First, Bush won here in 2004 by just 51-49, and second, this year, Obama won 51-47. In other words, the difference between 2004 and 2008 -- besides the flipping of 20 electoral votes and the state -- was small in the numbers. This is important to remember because the gains Obama made over Kerry appear so incremental compared to what happened in places like Indiana and North Carolina, where Obama made massive improvements over the 2004 Kerry numbers basically across the geographic and demographic boards. Anyway, note Obama's seemingly strange decline among Ohio liberals. Hmm, what could account for that? It definitely appears unusual since Obama improved on Kerry's overall state showing to the tune of 2%+. Take Mahoning County in eastern Ohio, a blue collar, staunch Democratic County. Kerry got 63% here, and Obama took 62%, a very slight drop. Food for thought, as we may have seen socially conservative Democrats unable to vote for a black liberal. Nonetheless, Obama won Ohio through different means this year: he had incredible improvement with the state's conservatives. This shows to me that the campaign focused heavily on areas in the state that are generally not as hospitable to Dems, and it paid off big-time. Keep in mind that in 2004, Kerry won liberals by 72 points, and more importantly he won moderates by 18% and still lost. I would bet anyone a Coke that Obama's team saw that data, realized that Kerry did great with the middle, and wanted to work on improving in places Kerry likely did not pay as much attention to like western Ohio. Want proof? Check out tiny Henry, Van Wert, and Williams counties in northwestern Ohio: Obama improved by 8, 7, and 9% respectively in the three. All of that work in red areas made a big difference, just as it did more broadly across Indiana (which is really red everywhere).

Virginia

Liberals
(2004, 17%) Kerry 83, Bush 17
(2008, 21%) Obama 90, McCain 9
Turnout: Up 4% over 2004
Change: +7% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +3% over national Dem gains with liberals

Moderates
(2004, 45%) Kerry 57, Bush 42
(2008, 46%) Obama 58, McCain 41
Turnout: Up 1% over 2004
Change: +1% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: -7% under national Dem gains with moderates

Conservatives
(2004, 38%) Bush 85, Kerry 15
(2008, 33%) McCain 80, Obama 18
Turnout: Down 5% under 2004
Change: +3% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: -2% under national Dem gains with moderates

Analysis. This data provides more evidence why there should be no question that Virginia is now a purple state, and Republicans are actively losing a lot of ground here. While conservative voter participation remained the same nationally between 2004 and 2008, it dropped a not-insignificant 5% in Virginia, while liberal participation jumped 4% in the Commonwealth. Obama's gains with conservatives and moderates were solid, but he won on his huge growth with the expanding liberal base in the state. A big state with 13 electoral votes and 11 congressmen, the GOP cannot afford to lose the state nationally over the long haul, but things are not treading the party's way. Not to mention that Mark Warner won a Senate seat, and Dems captured three GOP House seats and in the process knocked off two incumbents. The state's GOP has done a terrible job and needs to get its act together fast.