Breaking Down Swing State Exit Polls: Party ID

In this post, we are going to look through swing state exit poll data relating to voter party identification.

National Exits

Democrats
(2004, 37%) Kerry 89, Bush 11
(2008, 39%) Obama 89, McCain 10
Turnout: Up 1% over 2004
Change: None

Republicans
(2004, 37%) Bush 93, Kerry 6
(2008, 32%) McCain 90, Obama 9
Turnout: Down 5% under 2004
Change: +3% Obama over Kerry

Independents
(2004, 26%) Kerry 49, Bush 48
(2008, 29%) Obama 52, McCain 44
Turnout: Up 3% over 2004
Change: +3% Obama over Kerry

Analysis. Let's first look at the turnout picture. The percentage of voters who were self-identified Dems rose a slight 2%, but more importantly the number of GOPers dropped a not-too-small 5%. There were also 3% more indies out there. How did this translate in the election? Well, interestingly, Obama improved over Kerry very marginally with Democrats, while jumping three percent in support with the other two groups. This is where the election was won for the Democrat: among disillusioned Republicans and indies. In 2004, when Bush won just about every single Republican -- with GOPers equal to Dems as part of the voting populace -- Kerry lost when he ended up basically tied with indies. Obama's big victory with independents, combined with the drop in self-IDed Republicans equaled a cool victory.

Colorado

Democrats
(2004, 29%) Kerry 93, Bush 7
(2008, 30%) Obama 92, McCain 7
Turnout: Up 1% over 2004
Change: -1% Obama under Kerry
Difference with national gains: -1% under Dem national gains with Democrats

Republicans
(2004, 38%) Bush 93, Kerry 6
(2008, 31%) McCain 87, Obama 13
Turnout: -7% under 2004
Change: +7% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +4% over Dem national gains with Republicans

Independents
(2004, 33%) Kerry 52, Bush 45
(2008, 39%) Obama 54, McCain 44
Turnout: +6% over 2004
Change: +2% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: -1% under Dem national gains with Independents

Analysis. Colorado's results mirror some of the national numbers. Obama won the state by enjoying a larger slice of a smaller Republican pie, and a bigger piece of a bigger indie pie. It looks like a lot of GOPers identified themselves as indies, many of them crossing party lines to support Obama in the process.

Florida

Democrats
(2004, 37%) Kerry 85, Bush 14
(2008, 37%) Obama 87, McCain 12
Turnout: No change
Change: +2% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +1% over Dem national gains with Democrats

Republicans
(2004, 41%) Bush 93, Kerry 7
(2008, 34%) McCain 87, Obama 12
Turnout: -7% under 2004
Change: +5% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +2% over Dem national gains with Republicans

Independents
(2004, 23%) Kerry 57, Bush 41
(2008, 29%) Obama 52, Bush 45
Turnout: +6% over 2004
Change: -5% Obama under Kerry
Difference with national gains: -8% under Dem national gains with Independents

Analysis. Florida was an interesting state in this election, and one I certainly want to write separately about in time. As we saw with the breakdown on ideology, Obama did not improve over 2004 with moderates, nor any better with independents. The difference was at the poles, where he saw decent imrprovement among Dems and very good movement with Republicans. Later, I will come back to look at how the Florida counties voted. As we will see later, Obama did not achieve across the board improvement in the state, and focused on his base counties to win.

Indiana

Democrats
(2004, 32%) Kerry 90, Bush 10
(2008, 36%) Obama 93, McCain 6
Turnout: +4% over 2004
Change: +3% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +3% over Dem national gains with Democrats

Republicans
(2004, 46%) Bush 95, Kerry 5
(2008, 41%) McCain 86, Obama 13
Turnout: -5% under 2004
Change: +8% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +5% over Dem national gains with Republicans

Independents
(2004, 22%) Bush 51, Obama 46
(2008, 24%) Obama 54, McCain 43
Turnout: +2% over 2004
Change: +8% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +5% over Dem national gains with Independents

Analysis. Really, changes in turnout between 2004 and 2008 were not drastic. Sure, more Democrats and less Republicans came out, but GOPers still outnumbered Democrats by 5%. The key fact to be gleaned from the exit data is simple: Obama played in Indiana -- something Dems never do -- and he was able to improve across the board. I really don't think it was any neat trick. It was smart, absolutely, but just by entering the state, there was low-hanging fruit to be plucked. Kerry 39% in Indiana or whatever it was does not reflect Democratic support in the state. This is not to say that national Democrats should win in Indiana, just that their real level of support is not that low. To my mind, Indiana was the most impressive result of election night. That Obama was able to close such a large gap in four years, in a very conservative state, is a testament to his strengths as a candidate, the national environment, and his campaign's intelligence. As we will see in a future separate post, his improvements were across the geographic and partisan spectrum.

Nevada

Democrats
(2004, 35%) Kerry 90, Bush 10
(2008, 38%) Obama 93, McCain 6
Turnout: +3% over 2004
Change: +3% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +3% over Dem national gains with Democrats

Republicans
(2004, 39%) Bush 93, Kerry 7
(2008, 30%) McCain 88, Obama 11
Turnout: -9% under 2004
Change: +4% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +1% over Dem national gains with Republicans

Independents
(2004, 26%) Kerry 54, Bush 42
(2008, 32%) Obama 54, McCain 41
Turnout: +6% over 2004
Change: +0 Obama with Kerry
Difference with national gains: -3% under Dem national gains with Independents

Analysis. Huge cause for worry for Republicans: self-identified Republicans dropped 9% in the state from 2004 when the two parties enjoyed parity. This rate is nearly double what the national drop was (average 5% nationally). In a state that has been reliably Republican in presidential contests for decades, Republicans need to turn things around fast or risk losing control of this key fast-growing Western state.

North Carolina

Democrats
(2004, 39%) Kerry 86, Bush 14
(2008, 42%) Obama 90, McCain 9
Turnout: +3% over 2004
Change: +4% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +4% over Dem national gains with Democrats

Republicans
(2004, 40%) Bush 96, Kerry 4
(2008, 31%) McCain 95, Obama 4
Turnout: -9% under 2004
Change: +0 Obama with Kerry
Difference with national gains: -3% under Dem national gains with Republicans

Independents
(2004, 21%) Bush 56, Kerry 41
(2008, 27%) McCain 60, Obama 39
Turnout: +6% over 2004
Change: -2% Obama under Kerry
Difference with national gains: -5% under Dem national gains with Independents

Analysis. Obama won this state by consolidating support among Democrats. While his numbers with the other two groups appears, underwhelming, that is not entirely true. His support with GOPers was the same as Kerry's, but because turnout dropped 9%, Obama ended up with many more Republicans voters than did Kerry. Similarly, his support with indies was lower than Kerry's, but with a jump in turnout, Obama did slightly better than break even. In the end, all of it was enough to give Obama a very narrow victory here.

Ohio

Democrats
(2004, 35%) Kerry 90, Bush 9
(2008, 39%) Obama 89, McCain 10
Turnout: +4% over 2004
Change: -1% Obama under Kerry
Difference with national gains: -1% under Dem national gains with Democrats

Republicans
(2004, 40%) Bush 94, Kerry 6
(2008, 31%) McCain 92, Obama 8
Turnout: -9% under 2004
Change: +2% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: -1% under Dem national gains with Republicans

Independents
(2004, 25%) Kerry 59, Bush 40
(2008, 30%) Obama 52, McCain 44
Turnout: +5% over 2004
Change: -7% Obama under Kerry
Difference with national gains: -10% under Dem national gains with Independents

Analysis. We've talked a little about Ohio so far. While it is incredible Obama was able to get a majority in the state despite the drop in support he received with indies, it is important to keep in mind that Kerry lost the state with 49%, so Democrats did not need enormous improvement to take the state. Ohio was won by Obama's performance with Republicans. That marginal uptick made the difference. As we will see when we look at the geographic splits in the state, Obama's hard work in western Ohio won him the state's 20 electoral votes.

Virginia

Democrats
(2004, 35%) Kerry 92, Bush 8
(2008, 39%) Obama 92, McCain 8
Turnout: +4% over 2004
Change: +0 Obama with Kerry
Difference with national gains: No difference

Republicans
(2004, 39%) Bush 95, Kerry 5
(2008, 33%) McCain 92, Obama 8
Turnout: -6% under 2004
Change: +3% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: No difference

Independents
(2004, 26%) Bush 54, Kerry 44
(2008, 27%) Obama 49, McCain 48
Turnout: +1% over 2004
Change: +5% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +2% over Dem national gains with Independents

Analysis. It's interesting that Obama's percentages among both Dems and GOPers was identical to Kerry's rates four years ago. However, with Dem participation rising 4% while GOP participation dropping 6%, Obama ended up in the black in terms of gaining more voters. The state was won among independents, with whom Obama squeezed out a tight win. In fact, he did better with indies in the Commonwealth than nationally.