Some Final Early Voting Numbers

Eight days ago, we posted some early voting statistics courtesy of George Mason's awesome Elections Project. With the race in two days, here is a final summary of early voting in those handful of states which release their data and some party break-down. For some context, I am including the relevant statistics from last week to give some idea of how things have changed in the last eight days.

Colorado (in-person early voting began on 10/21)

Voted so far: 1,477,836 (662,340 last week)

Democrat: 37.7 percent (38.6)
Republican: 35.9 percent (37.9)
Ind/Unaffiliated: 26.4 percent (23.5)

Absentees: 75.3 percent (83)
In-person balloting: 24.7 percent (17)

Registered voters
Total: 3,202,465
Democrat: 1,050,634 (32.8%)
Republican: 1,062,986 (33.2%)
Unaffiliated: 1,069,615 (33.4%)

These numbers are through Thursday (party stats) and Friday (totals). We certainly get a better picture here than last week, as in-person early voting only began on 10/21. The Democratic number is fairly stable at around 38 percent, and the GOP number is right behind. Both parties are voting above their registration numbers (which are also provided just above). Keep in mind that three-fourths of these votes are via absentee ballot, which generally favors Republicans.

The biggest factoid from here, however, is that almost half of Colorado's 3.2 million registered voters have already cast their ballot. That is pretty incredible. Considering that a fairly fresh PPP poll is showing that Colorado voters who have already weighed in favor Obama by 58-41, these stats may portend a landslide in the once-red-leaning state.

Florida (in-person early voting began on 10/21)

Voted so far: 3,787,414 (1,382,948)

Democrat: 45.6 percent (43.7)
Republican: 37.8 percent (41.8)
Ind/Unaffiliated: 16.6 percent (14.6)

Absentee: 39.4 percent (53.9)
In-person balloting: 60.6 percent (46.1)

These numbers are through Saturday. As we noted last week, the totals at that time reflected a majority absentee number, and that as in-person early voting continued the numbers would move and Democrats would probably take a lead. That has happened, as Democrats are now-out-early voting Republicans by around eight points. This is significant when you consider that in 2004, GOPers led the state's overall early voting tally 43.5-to-40.7.

Nearly four million early voters is a heck of a lot.

Georgia

Voted so far: 1,994,990 (967,210)

Male: 40.4 percent (41)
Female: 56.2 percent (56.1)
Unknown: 0.9 percent (2.9)

White: 60.2 percent (60.7)
Black: 35.1 percent (35.4)
Other: 2.2 percent (2.8)

Absentee: 11.1 percent
In-person balloting: 88.9 percent

These numbers are through Saturday. Here, the number is not as telling as the lack of movement. While black turnout hit 40 percent early on, it has held where it is for at least two weeks. Black turnout was 25 percent overall in 2004. If black turnout is in the mid-thirties on Tuesday, combined with this early vote number, Barack Obama is going to win Georgia, and maybe carry Jim Martin in with him.

Iowa

Voted so far: 454,274 (304,316)

Democrats: 47.3 percent (50.1)
Republicans: 28.8 percent (28.2)
Ind/Other: 23.9 percent (21.7)

As Officer Barbrady on South Park would say, "nothing to see here." Yes, Democratic participation dropped a bit, but it is not like GOPers exploded in early voting in the last week. These Iowa numbers are through Friday.

Louisiana (early voting ended 10/28)

Voted: 266,880
Democrat: 58.5 percent
Republican: 28.4 percent
Ind/Other: 13.1 percent

White: 60.8 percent
Black: 36.3 percent
Other: 2.9 percent

I did not post Louisiana last week for a reason. While these numbers look good on their face, they don't really show me that Louisiana will be close. First, Louisiana is one of the few states in the South that has party registration, and Democratic registration in the state is around 54 percent. So, yes, Democrats are showing up, but so are Republicans, as they have around one-quarter of the state's registrants. Similarly, 33 percent of the Bayou State is black, so we are seeing a slight surge in black turnout, but I don't know if it will be enough for a state John Kerry lost by 15 percent, despite a recent poll showing John McCain up only 43-40.

Nevada (in-person early voting began 10/18)

Voted so far: 559,687 (199,468)

Clark County
Voted so far: 391,936 (160,000)
Democrat: 52 percent (56)
Republican: 30.6 percent (27.9)
Ind/Other: 17.4 percent (16.1)

Washoe County
Voted so far: 101,604 (35,563)
Democrat: 47.1 percent (52.2)
Republican: 35.3 percent (32.1)
Ind/Other: 17.5 percent (15.7)

These numbers are through Friday. As you can see, Republicans are making a little surge in Nevada's two biggest counties. Still, Democrats maintain a solid lead, particularly in key Washoe County, which McCain has to win in order to take the state. I wish I could give statistics for Elko County -- the heavily rural and Republican county in the northeast corner of the state -- to give a better idea of Obama's statewide strength, but their county page does not seem to have any information tabulated or available.

New Mexico

As I noted last week, we do not have statewide totals to give you right now, but we do have numbers from the state's most populous county, Bernalillo , the home of Albuquerque. This is generally a huge swing county, whose voters routinely split their tickets and have had a GOP representative in Congress for some time.

Bernalillo County
Voted so far: 192,229 (75,739)
Democrat: 52.7 percent (55.7)
Republican: 32.8 percent (32.4)
Ind/Other: 14.5 percent (11.9)

Absentee: 34.1 percent (47.6)
In-person balloting: 65.9 percent (52.9)

These numbers are through Saturday. Obama is still banking a 20-point lead in New Mexico's biggest county (Kerry won here by only 52-47). On the back of a landslide win in Sante Fe County (third largest county overall), he will win the Land of Enchantment. The question is only by how much. Note PPP's state polling: Obama is winning New Mexico's indies by 66-28 (Kerry won them 52-45), and early voters by 64-36.

North Carolina (polls have been open two weeks)

Voted so far: 2,350,712 (1,090,808)
Democrat: 51.8 percent (55.2)
Republican: 30 percent (27.8)
Ind/Other: 18.2 percent (17.0)

White: 69.5 percent (68.3)

Black: 26.3 percent (28)

Other: 4.1 percent (3.8)

Absentee: 8 percent (10)

In-person balloting: 92 percent (90)

2004 early vote party break-down
Democrat: 48.6 percent
Republican: 37.4 percent
Ind/Other: 14.1 percent

These numbers are through Saturday. Democrats are still enjoying a wide early-vote advantage, with black turnout around 26 percent. North Carolina's black population is at around 21 percent. Black turnout was 26 percent in 2004 as well. This is going to be a close one in three key contests: President, governor and senator.