Required Reading

Uber congressional scholar and expert Norm Ornstein has a good primer on the troubles facing the GOP in the aftermath of November 4 in today's L.A. Times. While the piece is fairly brisk, it is not short on specifics or descriptive diagnoses of the Republican Party's problems heading into 2009. Here's a key part:

First, Obama's electoral coalition suggests deep fissures in the geographical base of the GOP. Since the 1960s, Republicans have been able to count on solid support from the South and the Rocky Mountain West, along with significant footholds in the Upper Midwest and New England. Obama's victories in Virginia, North Carolina and Florida show that the solid South is now more liquid. In the West, the Obama victories in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, along with a robust showing in Montana, are bitter reversals for Republican fortunes. Add Obama's ability to win handily in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, and the virtual disappearance of the GOP in New England (with the defeat of Connecticut Rep. Chris Shays, there is no longer a single Republican lawmaker from a region that was once a GOP bastion), and it is not clear there is any enduring regional base for the party anymore.

At the same time, Republicans have seen serious erosion in America's suburbs. Suburban voters gave 61% of their votes to the GOP in 1984 and 57% in 1988, but that dropped to 52% by 2004. This time, they fell to 48%, while Obama captured a majority. For the GOP, its base has been reduced to small-town and rural voters, not exactly a growth strategy.

Even more disturbing for Republicans is the change reflected in demographics. Minority voters are growing steadily as a share of the population and of voters. In 2004, whites made up 79% of U.S. voters; they were down to 75% this year. Blacks, Latinos and Asians, meantime, went from 20% to 23%. Blacks voted 95% for Obama; Latinos gave him 66% support; and Asians, 61%. Whatever advances the Bush team made by wooing black churches and socially conservative Latinos during the last eight years seemed to evaporate. If the Republican Party cannot make significant, lasting inroads into these minority voting populations, it has a long-term disaster on its hands.

As we discussed in our first dissection of the exit poll data, the GOP faces numerous daunting concerns. As Ornstein notes, paramount amount them are the ability to reach out to Hispanics and Latinos, the West, and the suburbs. In my opinion, this trioka may constitute the three biggest issues for the Republicans today because all three are growing in size, and the party's share of each is shrinking.