In the spirit of grading election pollsters, I wanted to go back over my election day predictions to talk about how I ended up doing. I think you will see that in sum, we did alright, but definitely not spectacularly.
President
T2L Electoral College prediction: Obama would ultimately win 359 Electoral Votes
(29 states + DC: CA (55), CO (9), CT (7), DC (3), DE (3), FL (27), HI (4), IL (21), IA (7), ME (4), MD (10), MA (12), MI (17), MN (10), MT (3), NV (5), NH (4), NJ (15), NM (5), NY (31), NC (15), ND (3), OH (20), OR (7), PA (21), RI (4), VT (3), VA (13), WA (11), WI (10))
Popular Vote prediction: Obama 53, McCain 46
Actual result: Obama did win the popular vote by approximately 53-46, so we got that pretty right.
However, the final split in the Electoral College was 365-173. I was wrong in my two upset picks, as both Montana (narrowly) and North Dakota (less so) stayed in the Republican column. Additionally, Indiana, which I said would go to McCain by 51-49, was won by the Democrat by 50-49. Finally, Obama looks to have won Nebraska's Second Congressional District (the result has not yet been certified by the state, but it looks to have happened), bagging himself a final electoral vote.
Grade. Everything else broke as we said they would, so we ended up correctly calling 47 out of 50 states right (excluding NE-02). Given the our popular vote prediction, I think we should get around an A- in our presidential predictions.
Senate
Prediction: Democrats would win 8 new seats (Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, Virginia).
We also observed that Minnesota would be a total toss-up, Ronnie Musgrove would lose a tight race in Mississippi, Mitch McConnell would be re-elected, and Georgia would head to a runoff which Saxby Chambliss would win.
Actual result. As of now, Democrats did pick up all of those seats except Alaska and Minnesota. They are still counting ballots in Alaska, and it looks like the Democrats may pick it up after being down on election night. In Minnesota, the Democratic candidate, Al Franken, is down 206 votes out of around 2.9 million cast, with a statewide recount looming. It is totally unclear whether Franken can pull ahead.
In terms of the observations, Musgrove lost, but a wide 55-45 margin, while McConnell won 53-47. And Georgia is headed to a runoff which will be on December 2.
Grade. Until Georgia, Minnesota, and Alaska shape out, it is hard to give a fully complete grade for the Senate predictions, but I think this is also A- work given that most of the predictions came out right.
Prediction: Democrats would win 34 GOP-held seats:AL-02, AK-AL, AZ-01, CA-04, CO-04, FL-08, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25, IL-10, IL-11, IN-03, *LA-04 (general is in December), MI-07, MI-09, MN-03, MN-06, NV-03, NJ-03, NM-01, NM-02, NY-13, NY-25, NY-29, NC-08, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, TX-10, VA-02, VA-11, WA-08, WY-AL, while losing three: FL-16, PA-11, TX-22.
Actual result: No question we had some stinkers. I was wrong on: AK-AL, FL-21, FL-25, IL-10, IN-03, MN-03, MN-06, TX-10, WA-08, WY-AL, and PA-10. In the end, the GOP held every one of these except the last one, which Dems held. Additionally, Democrats lost two other seats in KS-02 and LA-06.
I really lament several of my bad picks here.
*First, my two big upsets -- IN-03 and TX-10 -- fizzled because the districts were simply too red to flip.
*The Democratic candidate in FL-21, Raul Martinez, had way too much baggage, and in the end the GOP was able to easily beat him.
*I still don't fully get how Dems lost FL-25 considering Obama's strength with Florida's Latinos and in the South. I guess that the 53-47 GOP win there shows that South Florida Cubans remain strongly in the GOP camp.
*In Wyoming, I should have gone with my head and not my heart: Gary Trauner could not win in a presidential year against an opponent who was well liked by Wyomingites. In Wyoming, if the Republican candidate is not awful (read Barbara Cubin, they will win just about every time). He had his chance in 2006, and lost because he didn't nail down Sweetwater County. My original sentiment from early 2007 holds true: Gary should never have run this year, and should have waited to run for governor in 2010.
*In Minnesota, I would still pick Dems to win the Third again given Obama's strength there, but I regret my pick in the Sixth. The Tom Reynolds Corrollary strikes again, as Michele Bachmann had just enough time to escape her late-election tv gaffe.
*I just could not call ID-01 for Dems, and while they won it, I would make that pick all over again tomorrow.
*In Alaska, people sent Don Young back despite him being down double digits in nearly all polls all year. Young is Alaskans' living, breathing middle finger to the Lower 48 states for the Stevens trial and verdict.
*I was right in only one-fourth of my GOP survivor picks (i.e. Republicans in swing districts who had always seemed to hang around): Steve Chabot did finally lose in OH-01, but Shays did too, and amazingly Mark Kirk and Dave Reichert survived yet again.
*I also regret not sticking to my original list of the five most endangered Democrats which included LA-06 and KS-02. The 2006 win in Kansas was a fluke that was corrected last week, and Don Cazayoux was killed by crybaby Michael Jackson, who bagged 12% (mostly black Baton Rogue voters) from Cazayoux's base.
*We are still waiting for results in CA-04, OH-15, and LA-04.
Grade. I am going to he harsh here and say I deserve a C+ for my House calls. Dems did well, but not nearly as well as I thought they would. I called a net 31 wins in the lower chamber, and they look they will end up at around +22 or so. It was kind of a disappointing night for House Democrats.
Overall grade. I think overall our body of work deserves a B+. That's open to interpretation, but if you disagree, I welcome your thoughts.
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You did pretty well. I did not expect Obama to win IN (having lived there) but I was pleasantly suprised that he did. I had MT and GA flipping before ND, but neither of the last two were that close. For a racial minority running for the first time and winning, 365 EVs is pretty good. Even if Obama is reelected in 2012 on a Reagan 1984 campaign, I can't see him getting past 430 EVs max. For obvious reasons, he'll never win MS, AL, GA, TN, AR and possibly TX...even if he turns water into wine. But nowadays you don't need a landslide to radically alter the tragectory of government for decades to come.
On your house calls:
Ditto on TX-10 and IN-03;
FL-21 and 25: Obama did not do better than Clinton '96 with Cuban hispanics and those that voted for him stayed GOP on the down ballot races;
Ditto on WY-AL;
I disagree on the Tom Reynolds corrolary on MN-6. Jack Davis ran a lackluster campaign in 2006 and was disastorous in 2008 even though Tom's district was marginally republican (Obama may have carried it in 2008). On the other hand, Bachmann's district is top down the most conservative in MN, it's working class Reagan Democrat country and has lots of evangelicals and few mainline protestants and libertarians...so long as Bachmann is not caught worshiping at the alter of Ba'aal, she should be OK;
I still have promise for ID-01 if Walt Minnick can become the Gene Taylor of the West..he can survive. It is more libertarian than bedrock Southern GOP in its GOPishness.
AK-AL was a weird one; I suspect it was a combination of anti-DC government protest vote or, in Berkowitz's case, anti-semitism.
Chabot was never too secure in OH-01; Shays's district and Kirk's are very similar so while I was not suprised that Kirk won, I was suprised that Shays lost in a landslide; Reichert's district is a strong ticket splitting district and his opponent was not all that great.
LA-06 was a disappointment and had Obama come in earlier for Cazayoux, he'd have prevailed. He didn't so he lost. I already told you what I thought about Boyda.
CA-04 is a tough district but Charlie Brown fit it well so he could still make it (McClintock is the Tom Coburn of the West). OH-15 tells me that Kilroy was a really weak Dem and Stivers was a very strong Rep (it should not be close since Obama won there); the Dems will avenage LA-06 with LA-04 unless of course the F@#* it up.
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