Continuing or series on looking at exit poll data in the swing states, we are going to look at the race numbers in this post. I think the break-downs in a lot of these states says a lot about Barack Obama's winning coalition.
National Exits
Whites
(2004, 77%) Bush 54, Kerry 41
(2008, 74%) McCain 55, Obama 43
Turnout: Down 3% from 2004
Change: +2% Obama over Kerry
Blacks
(2004, 11%) Kerry 88, Bush 11
(2008, 13%) Obama 95, McCain 4
Turnout: Up 2% from 2004
Change: +7% Obama over Kerry
Hispanics/Latinos
(2004, 8%) Kerry 53, Bush 44
(2008, 9%) Obama 67, McCain 31
Turnout: Up 1% from 2004
Change: +14% Obama over Kerry
Analysis. Obama had only slight growth over Kerry's numbers with whites overall. Check out his improvement with other groups. Black turnout rose 2%, and Obama's number was 95% overall (one underrated statistic from 2004 was that Bush got 11% of the black vote, a number that is impressive in retrospect). Perhaps more saliently, while Hispanic turnout only rose 1% relative to overall numbers, Obama's growth was huge: 14% over John Kerry's share of that vote. As we will show below, this meant a great deal in multiple crucial swing states.
Colorado (Statewide result: Obama 53.5, McCain 44.9)
Whites
(2004, 86%) Bush 57, Kerry 42
(2008, 81%) Obama 50, McCain 48
Turnout: Down 5% from 2004
Change: +8% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +6% over national Dem gains with whites
Blacks
(2004, 4%) Kerry 87, Bush 13
(2008, 4%) ? (Not a large enough sample)
Hispanics/Latinos
(2004, 8%) Kerry 68, Bush 30
(2008, 13%) Obama 61, McCain 38
Turnout: Up 5% from 2004
Change: -7% Obama under Kerry
Difference with national gains: -21% under national Dem gains with Hispanics
Analysis. While white turnout was down in the state, Obama made strong improvement with the populace. There was not a large enough sample of blacks in the exit poll to give us Obama's numbers or make a comparison with 2004. In terms of Hispanics, Obama surprisingly dropped 7% from Kerry's showing, and very well below the national trend numbers for the Democratic ticket. Looking towards 2012, if not sooner, Democrats should look to see why Hispanic turnout went up over 50%, but Obama's share of the vote dropped so drastically. I will try to look at this number a bit more closely later.
Florida (Statewide result: Obama 50.9, McCain 48.4)
Whites
(2004, 70%) Bush 57, Kerry 42
(2008, 71%) McCain 56, Obama 42
Turnout: Up 1% from 2004
Change: +0 Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: -2% under national Dem gains with whites
Blacks
(2004, 12%) Kerry 86, Bush 13
(2008, 13%) Obama 96, McCain 4
Turnout: Up 1% from 2004
Change: +10% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +3% over national Dem gains with blacks
Hispanics/Latinos
(2004, 15%) Bush 56, Kerry 44
(2008, 14%) Obama 57, McCain 42
Turnout: Down 1% from 2004
Change: +13% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: -1% under national Dem gains with blacks
Analysis. Statistic #1: White turnout was basically identical, and Obama did the same with whites as did Kerry. Statistic #2: Black turnout was basically unchanged, but Obama improved 10% over Kerry. Statistic #3: Hispanic/Latino turnout was down a hair, but Obama's gains were even higher than they were with blacks, a whopping 13% for the state (but just below the level of national gains Obama posted). While #1 was a wash, #2 and #3 explain how Obama won the Sunshine State.
Indiana (Actual result: Obama 49.9, McCain 49)
Whites
(2004, 89%) Bush 65, Kerry 34
(2008, 88%) McCain 54, Obama 45
Turnout: Down 1% from 2004
Change: +11% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +9% over national Dem gains with whites
Blacks
(2004, 7%) Kerry 92, Bush 8
(2008, 7%) Obama 90, McCain 10
Turnout: Same as 2004
Change: -2% Obama under Kerry
Difference with national gains: -9% under national Dem gains with blacks
Hispanics/Latinos
(2004, 3%) ? (Not a large enough sample)
(2008, 4%) Obama 77, McCain 23
Analysis. Obama improved with whites in Indiana. Drastically. Indiana may not be on its way to becoming a blue state, but by actually fighting in the state, Obama was able to peel off enough support in this mostly-white state to eke out a win. Paradoxically, his share of blacks dropped a little under Kerry, but not enough to cost him the state.
Nevada (Actual result: Obama 55.1, McCain 42.7)
Whites
(2004, 77%) Bush 55, Kerry 43
(2008, 69%) McCain 53, Obama 45
Turnout: Down 8% from 2004
Change: +2% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: Gains equal to national Dem gains with whites
Blacks
(2004, 7%) Kerry 86, Bush 13
(2008, 10%) Obama 94, McCain 5
Turnout: +3% over 2004
Change: +8% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gain: +1% over national Dem gains with blacks
Hispanics/Latinos
(2004, 10%) Kerry 60, Bush 39
(2008, 15%) Obama 76, McCain 22
Turnout: +5% over 2004
Change: +16% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +2% over national Dem gains with Hispancis
Analysis. White turnout dropped a good deal in Nevada, but Obama improved slightly with them. The drop in turnout probably had a great deal to with a jump in black turnout and a huge explosion in Hispanic turnout. Obama won over three out of every four Hispanic and Latino voters. That, combined with nearly all of the black voters made this one a rout instead of the close win people expected.
New Mexico (Actual result: Obama 57, McCain 42)
Whites
(2004, 57%) Bush 56, Kerry 43
(2008, 50%) McCain 56, Obama 42
Turnout: Down 7% from 2004
Change: -1% Obama under Kerry
Difference with national gains: -3% under national Dem gains with whites
Blacks
(2004, 2%) ? (Not a large enough sample)
(2008, 1%) ? (Not a large enough sample)
Turnout: Down 1% from 2004
Hispanics/Latinos
(2004, 32%) Kerry 56, Bush 44
(2008, 41%) Obama 69, McCain 30
Turnout: Up 9% from 2004
Change: +13% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: -1% under national Dem gains with Hispanics
Analysis. Given the drop in white turnout, the explosion in Hispanic turnout, and Obama's nearly 70% with the group gave him an easy win in the Land of Enchantment.
North Carolina (Actual result: Obama 49.9, McCain 49.5)
Whites
(2004, 71%) Bush 73, Kerry 27
(2008, 72%) McCain 64, Obama 35
Turnout: Up 1% from 2004
Change: +8% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +6% over national Dem gains with whites
Blacks
(2004, 26%) Kerry 85, Bush 14
(2008, 23%) Obama 95, McCain 5
Turnout: Down 3% from 2004
Change: +10% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +3% over national Dem gains with blacks
Hispanics/Latinos
(2004, 1%) ? (Not a large enough sample)
(2008, 3%) ? (Not a large enough sample)
Turnout: Up 2% from 2004
Analysis. Without looking at the numbers, it would easy to say that Obama won North Carolina because of black turnout. Not so. As you can see, black turnout dropped with 2004's levels, though Obama improved on Kerry by 10%. The reason Obama was able to win was that he did much better with whites, gains that were well above his national average gains. Very impressive. One other issue: while we don't know exactly how well Obama did with Hispanics, turnout rose three times from 2004 levels, a key factor that may have been a tipping point in a state determined by less than one percent overall.
Ohio (Actual result: Obama 51.2, McCain 47.2)
Whites
(2004, 86%) Bush 56, Kerry 44
(2008, 83%) McCain 52, Obama 46
Turnout: Down 3% from 2004
Change: +2% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: No difference with national Dem gains with whites
Blacks
(2004, 10%) Kerry 84, Bush 16
(2008, 11%) Obama 97, McCain 2
Turnout: Up 1% from 2004
Change: +13% over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +6% over national Dem gains with blacks
Hispanics/Latinos
(2004, 3%) Kerry 65, Bush 35
(2008, 4%) ? (Not a large enough sample)
Turnout: +1% over 2004
Analysis. Obama made small gains with whites, whose turnout dropped, but huge improvement with blacks that was just under double his rate of improvement with blacks compared with 2004. Bush's 16% with blacks in Ohio four years ago cost Kerry the state, but not Obama.
Virginia (Actual result: Obama 52.3, McCain 46.8)
Whites
(2004, 72%) Bush 68, Kerry 32
(2008, 70%) McCain 60, Obama 49
Turnout: Down 2% from 2004
Change: +17% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: +15% over national Dem gains with whites
Blacks
(2004, 21%) Kerry 87, Bush 12
(2008, 20%) Obama 92, McCain 8
Turnout: Down 1% from 2004
Change: +5% Obama over Kerry
Difference with national gains: -2% under national Dem gains with blacks
Hispanics/Latinos
(2004, 3%) ? (Not a large enough sample)
(2008, 5%) Obama 65, McCain 34
Turnout: Up 2% from 2004
Analysis. Obama's win in Virginia can be accounted for with three words: Improvement with whites. A 17% improvement over 2004 is one of the more amazing statistics you will see. This is Virginia we're talking about, and clearly this is a signal that the state has changed a lot in the last 5-10 years.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment